That’s not what your screenshots say 
You’ve had:
Three Sisters
Three Sisters -2
Clark
Blackcap -1
Vennacher -3
Is the specialty phase why your FTP isn’t going up much? I recall there being another similar case and in the past FTP wasn’t raised during specialty phase. @eddie @Caro.Gomez-Villafane
That shouldn’t be the case when you are on a goal based plan and still get “normal” workouts with threshold, VO2Max and sweetspot. It’s more an issue when you start introducing anaerobic workouts and other highly event specific workouts.
I suspect the amount of yellow days play a big part. More precise, the FTP isn’t going up because there isn’t much progress in workout difficulty during the block. Which is probably because the Ai is holding him back to prevent too much fatigue.
The Saturday coming and the last 2 Saturdays have all been the same workout, there sisters 3.4
All of the yellow days are part of the plan that the AI created
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I enter speciality phase after this coming easy week, my FTP hasn’t improved much during the base and build phase. It was predicted to go up between 3 and 4 percent but I keep getting less than 1 percent increase.
And the small increase in FTP is also part of the plan that it created.
That’s the question I am asking, I have completed everything it has set out for me to do but it has reduced the FTP increase by seemingly making all my rides the same. Why has that happened?
This should help…
I think getting repeated workouts is just coincidence.
That seems to be a recurring theme. Prediction shows a big bump at the start of the block, then reduces day by day through the block even though you complete the work. There’s been multiple people experiencing the same.
2 theories.
Is this post new AI FTP detection? It will drop for a week or two before pushing you back up. You can always move the Training Approach sliders for specific zones and see what that does to the recommended workouts. Or as everyone else said it may be a specialty phase thing.
Showing it day to day creates a game where people will do things to increase the number. I agree with you, hide it by default and show it at the end. I feel like the new system showing it change everyday either messes with people’s heads or unconsciously causes them to alter their training to game the system.
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Your guess is probably as good as mine. My 2 cents. You seem to have struggled more than anticipated with your threshold workout and the Ai has found it best not to progress you until you can handle it better.
Getting Three sisters multiple time makes sense to me. First time it was a maximum effort, so you shouldn’t try anything harder the next week. It is also the easiest 3x9 over/under workout so if the Ai wants you doing 3x9 it can’t go lower. According to your screenshot you did get progressed to Wheel -2 this week, but if this has later been adapted down it might be because you have done more than planned this week and the Ai is again suspecting you would struggle too much with your threshold workout.
It would be nice to see what changes are made to your plan and you can approve them or not just like you used to be able to. Now every time you complete a workout and everything is scanned and you have no idea what has changed.
Your post title is “Doesn’t feel worth the effort.” Some of the effort you put in was increasing your volume from five hours per week to seven hours per week.
It sounds like following the TR volume check recommendation both restores your volume to 5 hours per week and gives you a better FTP increase. Personally, I would count that as “worth the effort.”
A 1% increase is still an increase! My guess is that you would have had a larger increase if the threshold workout hadn’t been all out for you. If I were you, I would make the volume adjustments and then work through the next two weeks, trying not to look at the prediction or to worry much about it. I think you will then be in a great position for a bigger improvement following your next block.
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After successfully completing three sisters again and finding a lot easier than the last 2 times I did it I managed to loose my 3 watt gain on my FTP prediction, I even added an extra 10 minute threshold effort on on after the first 3 over unders and even set new power PR’s for this year.
So you’re getting faster and your training seems to be well calibrated. Great! 
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I believe I am getting fitter, but I believe the fact that I marked that one ride as maximum effort held me back a lot. If I would have known I wouldn’t have done it but I thought being truthful was the right thing to do.
3w is not holding your back. It likely dropped due to fatigue. You are better off in the long run and will likely see it come back in the end (if you stay on track).
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I’ve had huge discrepancies with indoor FTP and outdoor. I’ve gone from 174W FTP starting January 2026 to 227W, 243W predicted by next week. But I’ve started doing rides outdoors now and calculated FTP outdoors is at least 270-290W. A couple of years ago (2019-2021) I was at or over 300W FTP so it’s not really strange that I moved quickly but there seems to be pretty big differences between indoor and outdoor.
Anyone else seeing that kind of difference? It’s around 20% difference.
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