At the start of the block, the AI puts in (made up numbers alert) 16 total workouts. 10 endurance rides. 6 interval sessions, and decides what you’ll be doing on each of those days, and how it thinks you’ll rate each workout.
The total amount of stimulus (combination of total hours and intensity therein) will drive its AIFTP Prediction.
So, basically, if you do the workouts and rate them how it expected, you should arrive at the end of the block in exactly the shape it thought you would and get the number it predicted. At least, that’s how I understand it - in theory.
So, to flip that around, if you don’t execute all 16 workouts perfectly, and don’t rate them as expected, you shouldn’t expect to arrive at your destination.
The first question we all need to ask ourselves is “Did I actually do my workouts?” If not, there’s no reason to expect we’ll arrive at our destinations. No skipped workouts. No workouts performed at reduced intensity. No failed workouts. Then we can look at RPE ratings. “Have I given a rating that would reduce my prediction?”
The tricky part, of course, is that comparing our path through the block to the path we were supposed to take is almost certainly going to be impossible, because as soon as we deviate even a tiny bit, the remaining path through the block is recalculated and the workouts change.
As I said previously, going forward taking screenshots of my upcoming block on the day I get an FTP Detection is going to be A Thing for me. That way when the block ends I can compare what I actually did with what I was originally scheduled to do and see where the watts went. 