There isn’t really any evidence of this…. seems like it’s dialed you in nicely to make some decent gains 
The evidence would be that it had me doing different threshold workouts but changed them after I marked the first one as maximum effort, unfortunately as far as I know there is no way of seeing what has been changed like you used to be able to.
Screenshots are your friend on this one. 
My interpretation is that is the system tapering your future workouts after struggling with one…. which is expected behaviour.
I think you need to be a bit more “glass half full” rather than “glass half empty”.
You seem to be making good progress.
1 Like
I listened av bit more to the first podcast with Nate where they covered the new AI and there he said that in almost all instances where the AI kept reducing WL week after week it was because you where doing to much. This makes me believe it is the fact that you where doing more than the AI thought you could handle that kept you back, not your rating of one specific workout.
What’s the reason I’ve gone from +3 watt, completing a prescribed workout and losing it?
I understand it can fluctuate but how does doing what is asked make it go down?
-
Did you complete it at the RPE it thought you would?
-
Did any workouts change on your calendar btwn doing it and your prediction date?
If you truly want to try to understand, start taking screenshots so you can see the before and after. At least it’ll give you a starting point. 
I completed it at “hard” it was 60% hard and 40% very hard, I was reluctant to say “moderate” because although I found it relatively easy it still was a hard ride. It felt more like a hard sweet spot ride rather than threshold so I thought I gave it the correct response.
I now have an easy week before entering the speciality phase and my first hard workout is a threshold 1.9, my current threshold level is 3.4.
Maybe raise a support ticket if you feel like the model is behaving as intended.
Good news, the prediction has changed back to it’s original state after the final week of this phase. All the rides were endurance but I added a sweet spot ride yesterday in preparation for the hard rides to come and I noted it as moderate. It definitely felt easy for sweet spot so I thought I would note it as moderate rather than hard, it seems to me that your rpe rating has a massive impact on your plan.
1 Like
As it should, when you think about it. If you’re doing a sweetspot ride and rating the RPE as if you were doing threshold watts, that’s a 10% delta vs expectations.
Under those circumstances it makes sense that your future training should hang off a lower benchmark.
4 Likes
That’s probably why it held me back so much when I marked one as an all out. It didn’t know I was sick and could easily complete the ride outside Vs inside.
This is potentially more of a psychological question than a cycling one…
Are you able to appreciate just how well TR is working for you and be proud of the progress you have made… or are you completely distracted by the predicted FTP going up and down a couple of watts?
This is a genuine question.
There seems to be a lot of people who appear oblivious to the improvements they are making.
I assume it’s a case of people feeling that the predicted FTP is over-promising and under-delivering? But some people seem to be affected by it far more than others.
Personally I haven’t achieved any of my initial predicted FTP numbers… but it doesn’t stop me being completely thrilled by the progress I am making 
8 Likes
I think a lot of people misinterpreted the whole point of the post and a lot of it might be the way I have worded things, after all it is just the internet and not face to face conversation.
The whole point of my post was to find out why I wasn’t getting the FTP prediction I was being given when I was for the most part doing exactly what was prescribed to me, that is all. Diving into the Nuance’s of it all lead a lot of people off topic but the whole point of my post was to find out why my prediction was changing so much when I was seemingly doing nothing wrong, at least that’s how I felt. I just wanted the opinions of other people who I assume are also using this brand new feature to help me out.
Personally I like the idea of having a predicted FTP which I can work towards and have a goal, a major flaw it currently has in my opinion is the lack of transparency on why it is changing.
I am happy with the progress that I have made and I knew all along that I had a lot of potential to raise my FTP with the way I have been riding over the last few years.
2 Likes
Yeah think this is a big part of it
