Last year was my first year on TR although I have used many programs in the past so I have a good feel for my FTP at any point in time. I started SSB HVI at an estimated 265W. When I finished SSB HVII I tested at 275 to 280W both on the 20 min test and the ramp test (Xert also gave a similar number) . Not much of an improvement even though I followed the plan to the letter, never missed a WO or a single interval within a WO. Then I basically took my riding outdoors without a plan, just rode hard in group rides and solo. I felt really strong and rode strongly amongst the group relative to past years. I likely lifted my FTP from this point but didn’t test again. I think I felt too strong for my own good, because I was riding too hard too often and burned out by mid-July. So the base work seemed to work for me, I just didn’t manage it properly once I got outside.
I plan on following the same plan this year but managing my outdoor riding better.
I wouldn’t worry too much about the testing either. I must have failed the ramp test 3 or 4 times last year because I wasn’t into it mentally. I already had a good feel for my FTP and realized that going a few watts higher on the test wasn’t going to make a difference to my training.