Coming Soon: See Your Fitness Before You Get There 🤭

[JoeX]

@KonaSS

predict the number 1 topic of the forum in 2026 is the

Or….”How do I manipulate my training plan to get it to predict a 300W FTP in six months?”

[MikeJDrake]

I’ve clicked the link to sign up for TR AI which took me into the App, but that was it and I can’t find it in there, about where to sign up for it?

Regards
Mike Drake

[mrtopher1980]

That wording/link is confusing.

They are saying if you sign up now (or currently are a member) that you’ll get the feature upon its release. There is no current sign up for this feature, it is not even something that is in the current beta.

[kevistraining]

Yep.

It’s coming soon and when it arrives everyone will have it.

[kevistraining]

Pretty sure it will only attempt to predict your FTP within a 4 week window.

I.e. your next AIFTP detection….

[kevistraining]

Definitely could be wrong - just a guess.

I just can’t imagine it being super accurate much further ahead?

[mvmadore]

Honestly I’m tired of seeing these ‘ads’ and ‘notices’…feels like I’m being bombarded with a fake news item…just do it or stop these endless ‘coming soon’ ads…

[LacticacidMCB]

@kevistraining

I just can’t imagine it being super accurate much further ahead?

Hopefully they do some consulting with Nate Silver to figure out how to explain probabilities and confidence intervals to the masses.

[Rizzi]

I have criticized TR for not discussing features and missed Nate on the podcast talking TR roadmap stuff. So I for myself enjoy those feature teasers and after years that felt more like stagnation finally some concrete insight is very welcome.

Lightning up the holidays with some pre produced teasers to me feels much nicer than another 2 weeks silence and as a result more frustration in the speculation thread.

Looking forward for the next podcast.

[mrtopher1980]

@Rizzi

Lightning up the holidays with some pre produced teasers to me feels much nicer than another 2 weeks silence and as a result more frustration in the speculation thread.

Yeah this is a no win situation, you don’t update people and they get mad you don’t update. And if you do update people they get mad that they are just teasing. Neither side is right or wrong both are annoying depending on what side of it you are on.

The ads though on the forum for those of us being paid users is a little annoying. I did have a chuckle and almost screenshot one between 2 posts by Nate in the Beta thread, like if people are testing stuff they clearly are users and don’t need ads.

[Nate_Pearson]

@bmc_58

will there be an additional fee for this added feature?
Lori Henn

Nope!

[Nate_Pearson]

@Bbt67

Well, I have been able to do this for 5-8 years with a simple algorithm (no AI), however the error range was not brilliant, but decent, usable, interesting to see if AI TR is any better.

Alhough I look at others results, not sure I will re-subscribe.

Same when aiFTP was launched, looking only at my data, I could tell my ftp far more accurately than aiftp for myself. To be fair that is easy when doing threshold intervals.

FTP can mean different things to different people.

When we do it, we’re getting you the right FTP to put you at the right progression levels to get faster.

We’re not predicting your 60 minute power. We think that would put you training too low even at high PLs; or not give you enough room to increase without constantly increasing your PLs.

The cool news is our AI doesn’t know what FTP is or what workout scores are. It’s just looking at raw power and HR. We then back translate it to an FTP that gets you at the right insertion point in progression levels.

So, if you happen to put your FTP higher or lower than what we say, the AI is still going to prescribe you (basically) the same wattage.

You just might be doing 95% of threshold instead of 100% of threshold; but under the hood it’s still 250 watts.

We’ve wanted to go to an “FTP-less” world where you just train based on watts but we think that’s too big of a paradigm shift for athletes at the moment.

[Nate_Pearson]

@perikete

Lots of “soon” and never a date. Looks very dodgy

Why even post this? We’ve never posted “soon” in marketing materials and not had something come out soon after.

Why is it dodgy?

[Twowkg]

@Nate_Pearson

We’re not predicting your 60 minute power.

Good, FTP is not 60m power, I don’t think any knowledgeable coach or physiologist defines it as such thankfully but too many amateur athletes seem to think FTP = hour power.

[Nate_Pearson]

@Rizzi

Nice feature! Seems that finally the gras becomes greener on the TR side again .

Would it be an option for this feature to have a dialogue that you feed with a desired FTP value and it shows you the easiest path and needed workouts / time commitment to reach that goal?

The other thing that comes to mind is some kind of distinction between highest possible FTP versus lower FTP, but higher TTE.

Thanks!!

Because these are predictions, there’s many branching paths it could take. IE if you perform differently on a workout than we predicted, the following workouts are all impacted.

The good news is we update it as soon as that happens so you can see!

Right now we predict the most likely path through you training. In the future, we’ll do monte carlo simulations where we run the simulation many times to predict a range of FTP based on your training. Think of that one like your retirement portfolio stock prediction.

We built a proof of concept for that, but as of now it’s too resource intensive and slow to be released.

We’ve also tested out doing monte carlo simulations with different training plans adjustments (think different time, days, workouts, etc). Those are interesting but they can take hours and isn’t feasible for production launch.

Our AI team is going to work on a smarter way to achieve that after the dust settles with this launch.

The really cool thing about this feature that I like is that it’s super motivating to see your predicted FTP. You can also see what would happen if you skip a workout, or a week….that motivates me to get on the bike because I don’t want to see my FTP drop.

I also saw that I shouldn’t be doing an “Aggressive” training approach. That actually overtrains me and I should be doing balanced. That’s also something we want to automate in the future but for this launch you’ll just need to try the different approaches and see what happens. Whole process is like 2-3 mins.

The guts of this AI has been worked on for three years, and the entire company has been working on the rest of the integration for about 10 months. We’re so excited to get this out and show everyone!

[Nate_Pearson]

@Dwall

Wondering how this is going to be different from what Xert has already been doing?

Completely different

[Nate_Pearson]

@NigelTufnel11

While this sounds like a great feature, I’m also thinking back a few months to when the TR crew was talking about ‘blurring’ our workouts more than a few days out, because they didn’t want people to stress about them. And now they’re saying they are going to show us our future (predicted) FTP? How many people are going to see a (predicted) decrease at some future point, and freak out? And then start changing around workouts to try to get to a (predicted) increase? It will definitely be interesting to see how this all plays out.

You’ll see workouts the AI picks in your simulation window which is 4 weeks long

After that, you’ll see zone/workout profile/duration on your calendar for workouts more than a month out.

As workouts get into the simulation window, they will be picked by TrainerRoad AI.

How many people are going to see a (predicted) decrease at some future point, and freak out? And then start changing around workouts to try to get to a (predicted) increase? It will definitely be interesting to see how this all plays out.

This is one of the really cool parts! If you don’t workout, you can see how much your FTP is going to go down.

[Nate_Pearson]

@Monkeyevil

Yeah, this feature seems toxic as hell. Also totally overvalues FTP as a metric as usual.

I think you might be thinking of other platforms where if you schedule more, your FTP will be higher.

That’s not the case with us. If I put myself to an “Aggressive” training approach my FTP is about 15 watts lower in a month than if I’m on a balanced training approach.

Aggressive progresses me faster at first but then the AI has to pull me back due to increased recovery demand.

So if you try to load up your training with more than you can take, you’ll get a lower FTP than with less training.

In our experience, we’ve seen a LOT of athletes select a plan that’s more than we suggestion, and then add extra outdoor workouts without replacing their intense workouts.

This mitigates this a lot, because the AI will keep changing your workouts, intensity, and adding rest when you do too much. And then you can see how that impacts your FTP before you do it and make intelligent choices.

As I’ve said before, the AI only looks at watts and HR in your workouts; it doesn’t know your FTP or progression levels.

The AI just picks the best watts for you to do; then we translate it back to FTP for athletes current mental model. Of course when your watts go up, your FTP goes up; but it’s not just focusing on FTP; it’s focusing on the type of power needed in your plan to make you faster and achieve your goals.

So I think both of your statements that it’s toxic and overvalues FTP is as a metric are false. It should reduce people biting off more than they can chew and it doesn’t even know about FTP.

[Nate_Pearson]

@Pbase

I just keep thinking about how the workouts today have a PL number so you can see how you improve in a certain area, and how things get reset when your “FTP” gets reset, but if that gets eliminated in the new system and your predicted “FTP” goes up, how are you going to be able to compare your levels to validate things. I’m really hoping the new system will do things like show clear progression from week to week so for example, week 1 is SS 3x12, week 2 is 3x15, week 3 is 3x20, etc.

PLs are still there, and you should see progressions like this in workouts if you don’t have too much rest between workouts or too much intensity. It’s usually more complex than just 3x12, 3x15, 3x20 though.

[Nate_Pearson]

@RayMearas

Hi Caro,

Annual paid user from China here. So glad to hear your improvement.
The question is when will you launch or update?
Cant wait to try this new version.
Thank you and will supprot you team as always.

Ray.

As soon as possible. Team has a list of critical launch bugs that they are working through. I want to say a date but there are always unknowns that happen.