It’s not just theory. IF the factors that I stated are correct, it absolutely works.
Now does sun sleeve X under conditions Y actually have a net cooling effect? And is that effect enough to notice? IDK, that’s where having the right riding conditions (not too humid) and the right product matters.
The problem with a base layer is that it’s not the top layer that actually sees the airflow. So what you’re wearing on top of it can totally cause a base layer to not work. So it’s effectively impossible to say a particular base layer works if you’re not also specifying what’s being worn on top of it.