AI FTP - Not Accurate For Those Training Outside

TrainerRoad Software
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Quick bit of back story before I start, I am 34 male from the UK, training seriously since I was 17, raced Elite XC / CX for many years and tried doing the “semi pro” thing for a good while but now concentrating on my family and career but its safe to say I am very “Intune” with my body and how my training is progressing.

I have used Trainerroad for over 9 years now, since moving away from a ex pro tour coach and my racing “career” and have always been so impressed with the platform Trainerroad offers. However this latest update I am less impressed with.

I do all my training outside, no interest in sitting on a Turbo Trainer, for me training is about getting outside, enjoying fresh air and having that mental release as much as the physical. I am fortunate enough to live in the countryside and spent many years learning routes and ways to ensure i can safely and effectively train outside.

As we were warned my FTP dropped with the new launch from 352 to 350, I was surprised by this but didn’t question it much and continued training, completing most my sessions either at or over the prescribed power, I trusted the system would soon adjust and continued to keep marking sessions as “easy”.

After 4 weeks I got a new AI FTP detection where it suggested I had lost around -2%, I knew that wasn’t the case so ignored it. Sessions then started to feel pretty easy so I marked them as “easy” and in most cases rode over the prescribed power and just trusted the RPE I know so well.

I have actually been really happy with my fitness the last few weeks as we come out of winter, power looking good and I feel good, this was confirmed on Saturday local road race where I chipped off the front of the group and rode two laps with just one other to a strong result, this resulted in a 330av power for 1 hour and a NP of 343, this was by no means an all out effort, the first 20 minutes of that I was sat in a group freewheeling at points but again shows that the suggested FTP just a few days later 343 isn’t very realistic.

With a few days until my next AI FTP protection AI FTP was telling me I had gained 5 watts, I felt this was likely the system starting to catch up. Then I went out this morning and completed South Twin +3, the prescribed power was 397 but that felt to comfortable for V02 so I again trusted RPE and finished most intervals at around 408 - 413 and marked the session as “easy”

Once this had synced to the Trainerroad it had changed my AI FTP to -2.6!!

So is this latest system just not working for those training outside? To much “noise” in the data maybe?

Problem I have here is where do I go now? I no longer feel like Trainerroad is progressing me at the level I need and after many years happy with Trainerroad I am wondering if its time to step away.

All views welcome.

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Account can be found here:

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Can we take a look and share what we find?

I’d be curious to see what’s going on here.. :eyes:

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I can try to give my thoughts based on how my understanding of the AI priorities are.

First of all, I think you would gain a lot by starting to rate all your workouts. You say you rate all sessions as easy, but half of them aren’t rated at all. Out of curiosity I counted and you actually only have 4 SS workouts rated easy in 2026 and two of those were well below your capabilities.

I also think the last two weeks of February can explain much of your stagnation (according to the AI). First you were sick, but also did back to back VO2Max workouts that you didn’t rate and then you had a maximum effort SS workout and a full weekend of riding giving you a total load for the week as if you were healthy. The week after sees a big jump in TSS which gives you multiple yellow days which often results in the AI dialling you back to avoid burn out.

Finally I suspect the fact that your workouts often are longer than planned is a big factor in your prediction changing even though you nail the structure of the workout. Again, I think the AI suspects that you are doing too much.

All that being said, the fact that you have SS 10.4 and threshold 7.3 workouts planned for next week shows me that TR are indeed progressing you. Many people on here aren’t close to those levels with the new AIFTP.

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That’s because they haven’t accepted an update since mid-Jan. (Not saying this is bad, just that it explains the high levels)

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Wouldn’t it be the other way arround then? Since their FTP is predicted to go down, not accepting an FTP update should make the levels lower, not higher, to compensate.

Either way, according to TR, your levels post FTP prediction date is based on your predicted FTP.

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all valid points and i appreciate your advise, certainly some valid points there.

But why the drastic reduction in FTP having completed this morning training session with ease? Also is the AI not seeing Saturday’s ride where i held a AV power of 339watts for 20 minutes mid race and calculating that my FTP is likely higher than 343? Or is it taking that as a maximum 20 minute effort and therefore there is some logic potentially in the new 343 ftp (albeit its not correct but i would understand the logic)

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I suspect that your lack of, and heavily scewed towards easy and moderate, ratings is preventing the AI from picking up how easy todays workout actually was for you. If VO2Max always is easy for you, then this workout was as expected. Exept you did a much longer workout than you were supposed to, which the AI might not have liked.

Going forward I would try to experiment a bit with switching workouts to workouts more in line with what you expect to end up doing. Today, for instance, you could have switched South Twin +3 with something like Pisgah +6.

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this has not been my personal experience. Ignoring the update leaves my levels the same. Accepting the updates drops them.

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Interesting. We are still talking about workout levels, not athlete levels? My athlete levels have dropped when I have accepted a FTP increase, but the subsequent workouts have not changed.

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I believe this is also what I have seen.

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Ahh. Good point. I’m talking about my athlete levels changing. Maybe I’m making a bad assumption that since the athlete level drops the workout level drops too. So you’re saying that if your athlete TH level goes from 5.0 to 3.0, you still get TH 5.0 workouts? I don’t think I’ve seen that.

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No, what I’m saying is that if your athlete levels goes from 5.0 to 3.0, you probably have a 3.5 TH workout coming up. It will already be based on your new FTP, and corresponding athlete levels, before you reach the date of your FTP update.

An example from my training. My current athlete level for SS is 6.4, but my next workout is a 5.5 WL. Thats because tomorrow my FTP is predicted to increase.

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Yeah, my experience was that not accepting the ftp update left the level the same

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Yes please, I have also emailed back to the ticket I submitted four weeks ago regarding the same issue then.

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I hear what your saying, I think having to go through and pick sessions based on what I “think” is more suitable kind of takes away from the whole point of AI training a little, but yes i would have to agree that session does look more fitting for my current fitness level but my account is telling me that this session isn’t recomended for me.

eddie 17

How did you feel during that C race on Saturday?

That ride has most of your recent PRs from 20-60 minutes, and based on that ride, I’d say that an FTP in the mid 340s is probably pretty accurate.

I have noticed that you don’t do much threshold work – mostly VO2 with some Sweet Spot. I’m wondering if that could be influencing our FTP calculation for you. While it’s not 100% necessary, I do think the nature of threshold work is really valuable when calculating FTP.

It doesn’t look like you regularly rate any workouts harder than “moderate.” Are your workouts feeling too easy?

The couple of exeptions I see are the C race I mentioned above, and a level 6.2 SS workout from a coule weeks back that you rated as “Maximum Effort.”

It looks like you’re following your plan pretty well, but keep switching your Saturday Threshold workouts for Sweet Spot. Why is that?

2 Likes
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Saturday i was feeling strong, no issues there what so ever, on point or perhaps ahead of where I would like to be for this time of year. Attacked from the group and went solo for 1.5 laps with one other.

I do the work that is prescribed however most of the Threshold efforts I have are repeated because the AI thinks i am tired all the time, i don’t think its truly taking into account my training history.

Yes exactly my point, sessions feel easy and very repetitive, you will see that week after week it seems to serve me the same or very similar sessions, especially Threshold session at the weekend.

Yes you will see one or perhaps two sessions i have added a low level SS effort into the weekend, i did this to try and ensure i was hitting the correct overall stimulus for the week as the AI was failing to do so, also around my own schedule.

Point remains, if I was due for a 5 watt bump in FTP yesterday, I completed my training as prescribed (actually with great ease) today and marked it as “easy” why has the resulted in AI FTP now marking my FTP down by 9 watts…

If my FTP is actually 343 then that would mean that today i did 4 x 5minutes at my (or near enough) Anaerobic capacity and marked it as easy… make sense of that, especially as i am very much not near peak fitness. It would also mean Saturdays 1 hour NP was just 15 watts from my V02 zone, despite sitting in a group and freewheeling for some of that time… again that makes no sense.

I am sorry but there is absolutely no way my FTP is 343 and if that is what Trainerroad AI thinks then I think I have the answer I was looking for…

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Taking this back to the principles of how the AI works, I’ve got some follow up questions.

“FTP” is fundamentally the wrong question here, right? The AI is looking at the training OP is doing while completely ignoring scheduled workouts and only looking at his activities, as completed. It’s then decisioning based on that completed work and its suggested forecast. In that process there’s no consideration of FTP, correct?

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I’d try to knock out some threshold workouts moving forward rather than continuing to do SS instead. If you’re having issues with red/yellow days (it doesn’t look like you are), maybe try pulling Wednesday’s strength sessions to Tuesdays to give you a full recovery day on Wednesdays.

That workout you did today would have been 4x5 at 118% of your predicted FTP, which would be close to a level 7-8 VO2 workout. That’s not far-fetched considering you’ve been doing VO2 since the beginning of the year. If that workout was truly easy, I can have someone take a closer look.

I do think you should try to work threshold workouts into your routine, though. I don’t know if that’s affecting things for certain, but without any other efforts in that zone, we might be missing a key part of the puzzle. Then we need to rely on those other hard efforts, like your C race or the few workouts that you’ve rated as hard or above.

One easy step moving forward might be to use Workout Alternates to pick a “harder” SS workout for this Thursday. I’d like to get an appropriately hard workout in place for you. From there, we’ll likely have better data to assess your fitness.