The information Trek released for the Checkout FS Gravel bike is probably pretty relevant to the conversation.
I agree with this, even if you argue that you could push out 1 lap at the same pace on a hardtail vs FS, which I think could be argued depending on the course, the benefits come later in a race.
That said, yeah, your right, Iāve never seen any good data. I do feel this is a case where you can use WC racers though, or maybe marathon racers is more usefull. Considering a number of them have choices, they are choosing based on performance. If anything I think what weāve mentioned about late race fatigue would be less of an issue for them, but they are still choosing the FS. Granted, there are likely scenarios where sponsors want them on a certain bike, but I still think you would see hard tails more if they were close in performance.
You mention big, cushy tires and rims, to me that means you understand the components and how they effect speed, wouldnāt you want more layers of adjust ability, that are able to be damped?
I cant believe Iām the one arguing for FS bikes, ugh, Iām usually on the other endā¦ That said, you ride buff fast trails, or just want to ride a hard tail? go for it! youāll get some extra kudos when you pass folks racing, and maybe a mental boost here and there when you think about how everybody else is on a āfancy FS bikeā.
There are lots and lots of youtube videos that debate this. Here is my favorite one about open and locked suspension and climbing a āsmoothā hill with lots of data;
I rode a rigid 29er singlespeed back when I was in my early 20s, and I did Chequamegon many times on that bike. I got a hardtail in 2018 and it was immediately noticeable how much more control I had in bumpier terrain - at Chequamegon, again, I felt much more confident charging through the rougher sections of that course. Then I got a FS in 2021 and I had the same revelation again where it was just much, much smoother over the rough stuff and I felt I had significantly improved control.
Is my raw power efficiency better on a FS than my rigid singlespeed? Probably not. Is my overall ārace system efficiencyā better, meaning I tackle rough courses as fast as smooth courses? 100%.
Overall, I think the āhorses for coursesā argument applies here, so if the terrain is appropriate and the riderās skills are adequate, a hardtail can be faster, but for much terrain and many riders, a FS is likely the better answer.
Maybe not performance as such. But things like maintenance and possibly reliability I see as factors too. Not a problem for the proās but certainly for me as a hobby rider. I am going with similar thoughts to Greenswim - that maybe a HT is overall a better choice for me.
Look, I donāt question that on a WC course, FS would be better, but I never ride a course like that and probably no one here does. Again, there are lots of anecdotal feeling about FS being faster, thatās fine, but Iād like to see something concrete, thatās all.
Have I ridden one, yes, but not to the extent I need to. Yesterday I rode 2 hours on flow trails, they were pretty smooth and I canāt see FS being faster and would like to give it a go to see it my feelings match almost everyoneās here.
As I said, Iām in the market and a XL demo is hard to find. I need some data damn it 
I have to admit I am hardtail curious. I enjoy ripping on my gravel bike and then get the idea to try it on some singletrackā¦ to immediately regret it and miss my MTB. 
I think the ONLY advantage of a hardtail is the āprice per pound.ā There is no doubt advantages to full suspension in both climbing and descending. With lockouts and now flight attendant I think the advantages of a full sus bike outweigh the weight difference. That leaves the only question to if you want to spend the $$$.
I rode Moab Rocks this year. I didnāt see anyone riding a hard tail. Iād bet thereās very few to no hard tails at Singletrack 6, BC Bike Race or Breck Epic either.
And aside from races, thereās also riding for fun. A number of the trails I routinely ride would be very uncomfortable and dangerous on a hardtail. I sometimes feel underbiked on my 130/140mm R/F full suspension bike.
Yep, and all you have to do to confirm the lack of demand is look at the lack of hardtail offerings from the major brands. Most of them have a ātokenā HT in the lineup with low/mid components for buyers who are strictly shopping a price point, but thatās about it. Iām sure there are some brands still trying to sell high end hard tail builds, but itās such a niche these days that I canāt see how it makes sense. Most buyers with the funds to buy a higher end HT would likely choose a lower specād FS. For the serious HT afficionados, they can still buy the frame and build it up.
You may be good at science, but you donāt know business.
Are companies really making a 90% margin on a shock that they buy from Fox or RS, or on anything at all in the bike business?
I have been so drawn to a titanium hard tail forever. I love the simplicity, titanium (like my titanium Mosaic gravel bike), and really just something about them is so appealing.
When I was prepping to buy an XC bike this fall, with a pretty high budget (ended up with S-works epic 8), I couldnāt possibly get past a FS for several reasons.
- My goal is to do long XC - 100ish mile races. Leadville/high cascade 100 type of races. Iām not super skilled on the MTB, so when Iām completely fatigued at the end of a race, I need every single bit of help to keep me safe, including more cushion.
- For the same reasoning as 1., I also wanted flight attendant. Again - when Iām so fatigued I can barely see straight, thinking about adjusting my suspension is one less thing to worry about.
If I wasnāt racing or doing very long races, I might think differently. Or, if I wasnāt racing insanely skilled, it may also sway my decision.
To me - less fatigue and less things to think about when Iām late in the race are going to be 100% faster..
Do share the deets? Interested in knowing the margins. So $3000 extra for FS vs HT how much would Specialized pay for SID Lux Ultimate and bearings.
And as an FYI: R&D costs are Tax deductible so passing along those costs to the consumer is BS.
I still wish to see the white paper on HT vs FS. I assume there isnāt.
As for the races dunno never done them. I can say that when riding some of the 700 miles of trails around Crested Butte this summer, FS was never needed although everyone was riding them. Locking out their suspension no doubt
An expense one deducts from revenue to arrive at taxable income is still money out the door. 
I got beat up on my AL hardtail in the late 90s, and an efficient short travel FS was a revelation. Roots and rocks are too plentiful around here and my back is too old.
Love me some Colorado singletrack on a lightweight bike!
Maybe the issue is the trails I ride and race on are well maintained and with a sandy base here in the upper Midwest. Iām in my 60ās, donāt feel too beat up after racing/riding - not sure if thatās a reflection on fitness, skills, tire pressures or the trails I ride.
Dunno. I appreciate the feedback and some things to think about. Everything in life is a perspective and balance. Buying an MTB is no different I guess.
One thing does appear true: the bike companies want us to buy the most expensive bike possible and theyāll tell us why we should. But the marketing is repetitive with no foundation of proof, it would seem.
I would say itās a reflection of the effort youāre putting into the race.
Iām an insanely fit 37 year old and if I didnāt feel completely wrecked/beat up after a race, Iād be pissed because I obviously didnāt put full effort into it.
Of all races Iāve done, biking or running, the only one I havenāt been āhappyā with was a 10k where I crushed my goal but miss timed my kick and still had some left in the tank when I finished. Thatās a failure IMO.
Yes, those are fine for a hardtail.
Hereās a video of the 2024 amateur XC nationals in Bear Creek PA.
Before passing judgement on other peopleās choices it helps to see the courses they ride
you could go visit trails or check out videos of them in other parts of the country - the Shed trails in Frederick MD (where XCO Nats were held a couple of years ago) is another such trail system that comes to mind.
I have a hard tail and a full suspension. I grab the full suspension 90% of the time and pretty much always for a race. I am in the Midwest and no one accuses our trails of being too technical. More than comfort, the full sus allows me to be faster or just as fast as the hard tail for less effort. On that bike I can take lines that I wonāt take on the hard tail. I can pedal through sections you canāt on the hard tail. Do I have hard data on it? No. But spend enough time on a full suspension and I think most people are convinced. That said, hard tails can still work and you seem pretty convinced. I am not trying to sell you a full suspension. If you want a hard tail, get one.
That said, if you look to the used market, it isnāt hard to find a newly used bike at 40-50% off. That is where I buy most of my bikes.
Most expenses are tax deductable. Companies pay taxes based on profit (revenue-expenses). The recent change in tax rules for R&D just allows all the expenses to be recognized as they are paid. Previously, you might have $1m in R&D expenses in a single year, but would only be able to deduct a small percentage each year based on the expected life of the product/feature you are developing (the idea was to align revenue and expenses over the life of the product).
I have no idea, but Iād expect gross margins on bikes are likely very high. But that doesnāt matter if you arenāt selling enough units to cover all your other costs (which I assume are huge for the bike industry). Gross margins on cosmetics can be well over 90%, but they have huge marketing costs to recoup along with R&D costs. High margin does not translate to corporate greed, itās just the nature of some industries with high fixed costs and/or big R&D expenses. Walmart operates on tiny margins, but that doesnāt make them less profit-oriented than a bike company with huge margins.
Some data points for the discussionā¦ Specialized epic 8 comp compared to the epic hardtail (same specs) is a $1200 difference and about 3.5 pounds heavier for the full suspension.
I think itās getting even more rare the pros are using a HT. Take a look at Keegan - he used his HT at worlds because of the hike-a-bike being what he thought a selection with a Skimo guy chasing him (similar to Leadville), but even at Leadville where itās a big steady state climbing race he chose his FS.
There are no whitepapers because nobody would waste their time doing that, and the pros do their own testing. On all but the smoothest stuff or courses suited for a drop bar HT as a gravel bike, thereās no way Iād ever consider a hardtail. Extra maintenance isnāt that bad at all and is like a once a year thing, and you can still get a FS with flight attendant easily sub 24# and even sub 23# or non FA builds sub 22# with a little work if thatās your thing.
If itās your thing, sort of like a singlespeed, go for it. But if youāre picking one bike - FS all the way, every time. And thatās for every day XC riding not XCO type tech.