Personally, I think you are asking for an outcome goal that you have no control over. Instead, I would focus on process goals you can control. For example: commit to be on bike 4 days a week no matter what, or staying under a calorie goal 5 days a week, or making a low volume TR plan a non-negotiable no matter how you feel, etc. Be consistent with a process goal for a month or two, then review/adjust/repeat. Too many of us focus on an outcomes that are out or of our control like winning a specific race or hitting a specific FTP or hitting a specific weight. At the end of the day, it is about your daily process (goals!) that will be the ingredients to give you the greatest shot at the outcome goal. JMO
To answer your question more directly, you will probably see improvements in FTP and weight if you are consistent. I would just focus on consistent process goals and let the cards fall where they fall. I think you will be surprised. I know I was with myself.