Ive had AI FTP prediction turned off for a couple months as well as Fatigue detection. Its been great not having the distraction and the workouts function as they should progressing based upon how I complete them and what the next one I’m capable of is. It also can’t cancel any workouts, but does constantly make small adjustments. I get monthly AI FTP adjustments every 28 days. Ive been happy with it finally. More like the 2025 TR. (actually improved because FTP detection is off.
BUT! I couldnt help myself and turned on AI FTP prediction out of curiosity as I approach USAC Nationals with 1 month to go. In all transparency, I was testing it because I thought it may predict an FTP downgrade approaching Nationals because I do not believe my FTP is 309 (Yes, I know AI FTP is not actually FTP and its a scale the model uses for choosing workouts which works).
Here is what I saw:
Prediction
309 → 317 16 days left. Woohoo right?
But wait, there’s more:
I added 1 endurance ride to my rest day yesterday.
adding one 75 min endurance workout shifted to
recalculated 309->325
Then I completed the workout and rated it easy, which it was.
recalculated 309->328
That’s one hell of a 75 min workout i did to net me 11 extra watts in FTP in 15 days. Anyway. Ill probably turn it back off to eliminate any negative energy I derive from the chaos of the prediction, but maybe Ill keep my new hype man for a few more days.
I’m happy with my results and progression and that’s what matters. This is more a story of learning to ignore the number and just do the work as life allows. Dont get caught up in a synthetic number which isnt actually FTP. Calendar - TrainerRoad
Seems like you aren’t filling out the RPE survey on a lot of rides. Also seems like the prescribed intensity sessions are missed a lot. Are those done on the outdoor workouts and just not aligned to the prescribed workout name?
AFAIK, most of the weirdness around predictions shifting wildly are because it’s picking a single path, and if a small change to the plan changes which path it thinks is most likely, the prediction can get some big swings.
Yes, often times intensity is matched outside as much as bhumanly possible on natural terrain and Not named the workout name. I.E. Into the rabbit hole was 4x5 min long suprathreshold. One of the issues is that plan will auto adjust the workout as soon as it sees the outdoor ride upload. Then you can’t match it to the intervals you were completing. I dont usually fill out the RPE on rides. Plus that scale doesnt apply to rides as well as it does intervals. The tool doesnt understand how to match and scale RPE to MTB data anyway. What would be amazing is if it could look at the AVG/NP over time segments and see how many times that was repeated on a ride. Then use that to adjust your progression. For example, if I do 325w for 4 min X 7 climbs… it sure would be nice if it would pick this up. Alas it definitely does not do this. You must wait for it to prescribe you a lesser interval indoors, complete and rate easy and wait for it to progress. This is what I went through a couple months ago as early V02 was a cake walk until it caught up with where I really was in training. At least it was working well predicated on completing and rating indoor workouts well.
My post is merely about the Future prediction and how wild it is. Sharing my experience so others can compare. Also sharing my personal experience/preference, which is to turn it off and just do the workouts and not be bothered.
I have had trainerroad for many years and like it for indoor riding. Recently been playing with Endurance AI. They both appear to do the same thing which is look at the whole ride and give somekind of compliance score?? But with Endurance AI I can talk to the AI and point out that my intervals were spot on. It will then acknowledge and maybe adjust. I might be a poor rider but my last argument was on some tempo intervals that I hit but I was over the watts for some portion of the interval. There was only a 9 watt difference on the bottom and top. Outside that is no something I can do. I look at my garmin to see the interval average power and hit that. Endurance AI wants to penalize me for that. I was able to talk to it at least and we increased the range on my tempo inmtervals. The opacity of the Ai appears to be a problem. My next workout my Power Meter kept dropping and I had to point this out which it acknowleged that I was still moving so it could see what happened.
