Embracing the suck when training helps one accept the suck when it happens on race day.
I love this energy - just jump and figure out the landing on the way down 
They where gone quick!
I was too late. So i booked a camper and a camp siteā¦
It will be a nice adventure one way or the other!
I have a couple of questions for this group about:
- Target finish time
- Where to line up at start
1 - Any ideas on how to estimate likely finish time for Unbound?
For Leadville, I had ridden a qualifier (Silver Rush), and there is a multiplier on Silver Rush time that predicts the finish time for the LT100. Turned out to be within 5-10 minutes for me.
I have looked at finish times for the winners of LT100 and SBT GRVL, and compared those to my finish times for these races. My times are about 1.5-1.6x the winner times. Eg SBT GRVL in 2022 was 6:15 for winner (Keegan), my time was 9:45, so a multiplier of ~1.55
With winners finishing Unbound in ~9:30hrs (it has gotten faster in recent years; 2022 was 9:22), my predicted finish time is about 15 hrs.
Other ideas for how to estimate finish times?
2 - Next question: if my target finish time is 15 hrs, what group should I line up with at the start?
I have read several race reports from people who lined up in the 14 hr group, only to finish in 16-17 hrs. Their rationale for lining up with the 14 hr (beat the sun) group was to get in a train of faster moving riders early, and benefit from drafting.
This logic seems shortsighted to me, given its a ~15hr race. Why ride faster than you can sustain early, and pay the price later (Iāve ridden enough long rides/races to know the last few hours are absolutely miserable if you start foo fast).
Is there any disadvantage to me starting with the 15 hr group - which would align with my expected finish time?
The logic of the free ride with the faster group. I think itās better to ride within your limit. If you line up with the 14h group and the pace is to fast you know you can go slower with the next group behind you.
I think staying within your limit is key on the race. If the group your with is to fast it better to pulled the plug and grab the next group. Dillion Johnson sustained a slower pace at the start for a faster finish time last year. My friend did the same thing, after mile 18 we he was in the lead group he knew it was too fast. Rather then hanging on and pushing for another 70 miles to be blown up he backed it off and road his pace to a top 20 age group ride.
I have a great example from my race in 2021. I was with the lead group till mile 35 or something. We get to the first check point and Iām top 60 of the race. I didnāt drink or eat enough and didnāt stop at the check point mile 70 to drink. When leaving the check point there were people talking about how blown they were. I kept on chasing. I would get in a group and we would all hammer, I passed the same guy 3 times next 50 miles he always road his pace. I was always stopping to refuel since I was complete blown. Mile 120 my goal was no longer a fast time, I mentally just said Iām going to finish. I no longer could hold tempo and knew I wasnāt going to quit, by the End of the race I was 1xx finisher, that guy I kept passing was like 60th.
I spent some time digging around in Strava to try to figure out #1 for me. My approach is to look at people using powermeters and in my weight range. It sounds like the course is going to be same/similar to last year, so I only focused on that route. You have to dig a little to see where people might have had mechanicals or long breaks (which skews the speed to power conclusions). Last year, there was also a muddy section with extended walking for most, so that kind skews it as well. But itās still a good starting point. I a guessing that if I can do 200w NP on the day, that is good for a sub 13 hour finish is all goes well. That seems attainable, but Iāve never done anything this long, so hard to say for sure. To go under 12 hours (which was top 10 in the 50-54 group), people were doing more like 220-230w NP and thatās upper endurance for me and I donāt think I could do that for over 10 hours.
I have no idea on starting strategy, but I typically try to get with a faster group early in gravel races and get a free ride for as long as possible as long as Iām not digging too deep a hole. Itās a fine line and particularly tough in a race this long. Iāll probably be watching power and make sure I keep NP in upper endurance zone for the first 4-5 hours and let groups go if Iām going harder than that. I assume the surging up the hills is where things break up (and people eventually blow up) and Iāll try to stay under threshold on those. If typical wind holds, we will be going into the wind early and tailwind home, so that makes an even stronger case to stay with groups early.
Good arguments for me lining up with the 14 hr group (assuming my target time stays at 15 hrs).
Thx. Will take a look.
I used best bike split before the race and it ended up being extremely accurate to my finish time.
What parameters did you feed it with - surface type, bike setup, etc.? Did you wait until the race course was published, or use a course from the prior year?
Used a previous course. I believe I just set it up for gravel surface and then tinkered with the IF. I definitely could have gone faster with the same IF, made some bad calls in the first 60 miles with letting groups go as it would have required riding above that power target. For the first 80 miles you can basically wheel suck the entire time and just cruise along.
Just a data point on riding the course solo (no draft) - I did the 100m course solo last year 2 days before the race and my average speed was only 15.3mph on 219w NP (at around 170lbs). The 100 course is part of the 200, so the surface should be pretty representative. I certainly wasnāt āracingā and I walked many water crossings and a long mud stretch. I was also very cautious on downhills (out there by myself with no spare tire), but I still think that speed vs. watts would be pretty close for a solo effort. I might have been .5mph faster if I wasnāt in tourist/safe mode. In a decent sized group, I think itās totally reasonable to do 16mph+ on around 200 watts at my weight, but it really depends on the group dynamics on the hills. I assume there will be folks smashing hills early just like every gravel race Iāve ever done, Iām hoping I can find some like minded folks riding them at high tempo-ish.
Depends on how you executeā¦the goal is to be in a group that has you riding at or just slightly above your targeted power and then you drop off after a bit and adhere to your power plan. If you do that fro the first hour or so without extending yourself, youāll end up ahead of the game.
If you are drilling it and burying yourself to stay with a group, then yes, you are gonna pay for it later in the day.
It can be a fine line between using a group to your advantage and digging a hole for yourselfā¦.when I did it in 2019, I stayed with the front group for about 90 min. We hit a really chunky section and I knew that was the time for me to sit up and ride my pace. Until then, I had been riding well within myself.
Conversely last year, I did DustBowl 100 and it was full-on in the gravel sections and I probably dig too deep to stay with the group. Got popped around mile 35 and really struggled from mile 40-55 or so. Finally bounced back but was never great the rest of the day.
Itās definitely a fine line and it takes discipline to stick to a plan and not hold with the group as 90 minutes or a few hours in youāre likely still feeling good.
Yup. If Iām aiming for 15 hrs, will line up in the 14hr group.
Iāll be pacing off RPE, with HR as another input. I donāt have a power meter. Same principle tho.
Another factor I consider for early pacing is weather. If itās gonna get hot as the day goes on, a case can be made for pushing extra watts early. Itās kind of a āmake hay while the sun is shiningā strategy. The further down course you can be prior to it getting hot, the better. Iāve used this approach on really hot days before and itās been effective. Once it hits 95F or so (depending on humidity), I know the power is going to tail off no matter how well Iāve paced up to that point, so better to have burnt matches while they are still available. That doesnāt mean bury yourself early and completely implode in the heat, you really have to throttle this approach carefully. I wouldnāt advise trying this for the first time in a 200m race if you havenāt used it in the past.
As I recall it gets very sparse in the corral after the 16 hour sign. Bunch of liars. 
Now I need to find a road race skin suit I can wear the whole day.
I have 3 different brands and none have made me say I want to wear them for 5 hours
Where you lineup between 13, 14, 15, 16hrs isnāt super important in my opinion. I donāt even remember exactly where i started last year. Just found a good spot. Easily passed 100 people before and after the first corner (and crash) and it sorts itself out over the first few miles.
Just set your pace at the beginning and find a solid train. Donāt overthink it. Just donāt over extend yourself too much.
Donāt do much time on the front either. There are a ton of people that are more than willing to sit in the wind for way too long.
Iām curious as to where you got this information for 106 elite men and 52 elite women?
I found the āproā start list from last year. It lists:
- 142 pro men in the 200 mile
- 64 pro women in the 200
- 24 pro men in the 100
- 19 pro women in the 100
Maybe there a lot of DNSs?