Tour de France 2021 - Speculation and Gossip

For F**** sake man I live in Philadelphia and was much happier right before I read that! Unless you’re saying that if I keep drinking this crap water I’ll maybe get faster?

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I don’t get close to watching 120 days per year unfortunately! But I probably have some level of engagement with pro cycling at least every other day, whether that’s watching some of a race live, listening to a podcast, reading an article, catching some highlights.

Out of interest, if you’re seeing striking similarities between the current era and the EPO era, how did you view the ~2008-2019 era?

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The least enhanced of my lifetime other than the very first racing I watched! I think there was plenty of micro dose and TUE abuse, but overall, definitely cleaner than anything 20 years prior.

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Interesting but, I’m not following. Can you elaborate? Light switch meaning…

Yeah, I’m nowhere near that…though I might be closer if you count all the ones where I fell asleep until the last 30 minutes :joy:
I wonder if that might be somewhat influenced by culture/location and accessibility? Where I live rugby is quite big so it’s not uncommon to have that on in the background, but when it comes to cycling you’re down a subscription cost and a night’s sleep.

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I think there are two things at play here re: doping comparisons

#1. Comparison of times to the doping era of LA

#2. Comparison of incredible performances relative to other competitors

I actually want to focus on the time comparison part which I think is a red herring in a lot of ways.

There have been substantial improvements on the equipment, fueling and aerodynamic end in the past 10-15 years that when looking at exceptional talents, should be taking into account:

  • Bikes are more aero
  • Chains are faster and more optimized
  • Drivetrains are faster and more optimized
  • Jerseys are more aero
  • Fueling is better
  • Tires are better and roll faster with less resistance
  • Wheels are more aero
  • Helmets are more aero
  • Power modeling and race tactics are more sophisticated

When I look at this, I think we are conservatively looking at 10-20w of gain in efficiency, if not more. A grand tour yellow jersey winner should be roughly equal with the doping era just looking at the equipment gains alone. And while we’ve seen some fast times, we haven’t see anything that really takes a huge chunk out of the LA era yet.

As for #2, we are only a week in to the tour. I’m not ready to write the story either way until I see how the fatigue plays out.

From what I understand, the recovery was one of the other big benefits to the doping era and if we see folks continue to sustain crazy levels of performance into the last days of the tour, that will likely be a big sign.

Everyone can put in huge efforts and have amazing days on the bike. Doing it day in and day out as fatigue builds will certainly build my suspicion.

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Sure, but this isn’t a new argument either. We heard the same about past generations being faster due to equipment changes. Heck, even with Lance declaring “it’s not about the bike”, Trek became a massive brand. How many Pinarello’s with funky forks did Big Mig sell because he was faster? Marketing is a huge part of cycling. How many wheels did Zipp sell because rider X was fast and rode Zipp? One of the most popular forums in all of cycling focuses on Weight Weenies and we were all buying lighter stems. And then it was Aero. And discs vs rims. Rims are WAYYYYYY faster and no pro will ever ride them…oh, wait, Rider Y won a race on discs? Well, certainly Specialized was right when they went tubeless, right? Oh, wait, the new Specialized wheels aren’t tubeless?

Do bikes get better over time? Of course. But I don’t believe that’s what we’re seeing here any more than I believe Rider Z has a better training plan and started it when he was younger. Or diets (remember when Sky was racing Keto?). Or HRMs. Or power meters.

I wonder …

… if Roglic hadn’t crashed; if a healthy Egan Bernal were at the Tour … would we be looking at Pogacar’s performance with the same level of skepticism?

Maybe it’s just that, he has no worthy competition to make it look balanced?

Froome had Quintana to chase him around the Alps for a couple of his wins. But those two were clearly on another level and maybe balanced out our perception … the salbutamol issue notwithstanding.

The sad thing is, the best thing that could happen to Pogacar right now in terms of calming the speculation is for him to have bad day on a hill. And maybe he will. But he hasn’t even shown a flicker of weakness … Bernal basically barnstormed the Giro, but there was at least a day, or a moment, when he looked like he might crack.

Just thinking out loud …

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Plasticizer test. I think blood doping in competition is almost a no go these days

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While I agree with the improvements that have been made regarding aero, friction, nutrition and training, isn’t it still crazy that the greatest performances in terms of climbing speed (solo, not in a bunch) are pretty much exclusively 10 to 20 years old… or from this or the previous tour… all but one (Richie Porte, La Plache de Belles Files) … from a certain Tadej?
I mean, the improvements to affect climbing speed (weight, nutrition, training, friction and a little aero) have been there, but not massive over the Last 2 to 4 years (where other fantastic riders could have reached similar levels of performance, but only one man exploded beyond historic marks).

Last year starting with the Classics to the Tour we saw a step change in performance. Not incremental, but overnight, power output that was winning stages was getting shot out the back into the grupetto.

Again, I’m not talking about incremental improvement which is expected. I’m talking instantaneous boosting.

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I can’t explain the step change, I honestly just don’t know how to explain it if it were physiological doping. It seems odd that from the Classics to the Tour that everyone would be faster all of a sudden and there would be mass convergence from lots of riders in terms of all using the same substance for the same gain. I think that’s why I lean towards a small but meaningful mechanical doping advantage combined with some other legal improvements. 1+1 = 3 type of stuff.

Unless it’s just another open secret?

Maybe we’ll see some articles and interviews from riders retiring this year talking about it?

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You hear this kind of thing a lot. But the thing is: nearly every single person riding in the TdF has a backstory like this. I remember hearing Michael Creed on a podcast a few years ago, when asked how he was able to get the attention of team managers, said he never lost a race (or at least to anyone but Danny Pate) until he got his first pro contract.

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A little humor

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Now with GCN+ I’ve watched hours and hours of cycling since February - including the women’s racing that throws up some of the most exciting contests I’ve seen, on a pretty frequent basis :slight_smile: :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:

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Nice!

I have a theory on this, and I don’t think it is only affecting the pro peloton: Covid Fitness.

Some examples: A Cat 4/5 race I was in two weeks ago averaged 26 mph for the race. Prior to the pandemic, a 24 mph average (sometimes closer to 25) was more common in races in this category. Also, the group rides around me in Chicago all seem to have kicked it up a notch. C groups are averaging 20 mph now (were 16-17) with B at 22ish (were 20) and A is charging to 27 or 28 (were 26+). Hell there’s one ride that averages 28-29 mph every week right now that blows my mind every time I see those folks post on Strava.

Practically everybody is talking about how much faster the rides are now, too. It’s not just something I’m perceiving.

To me, Covid fitness is a legit and real thing, and I fully believe it affected the peloton as well. A year of structured, rigid training and dialed nutrition plans without work travel or races to disrupt or throw off the process? For an amateur that can lead to massive changes (it certainly has for me), and I imagine the same is true for the pro peloton but on a different level/scale.

This theory doesn’t account for Pogacar’s performance so much as ties into your thoughts that a light switch has been flipped. It just points to how much harder and faster folks have been as we emerge from the coronavirus pandemic.

When De Gendt says he put out a career best 10-minute power to start stage 8 and he got dropped, you know the level has jumped up a lot. Curious about the numbers, I took a look at Sepp Kuss’ Strava for the start of that stage since he usually posts with his power meter for raw numbers, and the first 9.5 mins of the race he averaged 412 watts (6.8 w/kg). Similarly, yesterday’s stage winner Ben O’Connor also posted and averaged 6.5 w/kg (436) for 9.5 mins at the start of stage 8. It seems actually bonkers what we’re seeing right now.

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Covid fitness is a lot of it, imo. You’re seeing this across all sports.

I changed my strength and conditioning coach to someone who has worked with a few athletes in the tour before they went to Europe and has others in the Olympics and other top sports. She said the last year and a half has allowed her athletes to lift and do more strength work than ever.

I was reading from one of the US Olympic swimmers that they picked up the weights for the first real time and she’s faster than she ever has been.

Basically, everyone just about took a year off of a taper / race phase and have just been doing build / rest / build / rest phases.

Our Wednesday Cat 4/5 had a two man solo breakaway average 27mph with wind on a rolling course. Peloton is around 26mph. They’re also selling the races out. People are fast, healthy, and strong right now.

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And people say irony is dead.