The Bell curve of cylists - how fast are the average TR users?

I guess I should feel pretty special at 4 then

I don’t, when I am getting absolutely crushed on fast group rides or on Zwift races in A…

FWIW 4 w/kg was just a hypothetical target for me before 2020. My previous best FTP was 3.65 w/kg (263 @ 72kg) back in 2017, but with lockdown and the following consistency for the past year I am now at 4.16 (288 @ 69.3kg).

1 Like

The data quoted by the previous posters are not referring to the Coggan distributions. They are all relative to the people who use and who are in the same gender / age category as the person whose data is being reported.

1 Like

I’m at 4 but also as a higher weight so a higher FTP (325) so punchy group rides are no big deal. When the road points up, I can struggle more than lightweights, but on flats and rolling hills I can hold 300w no problem, whereas for a lighter rider at 4w/kg, 300 may be threshold and not sustainable.

We don’t have mountains here and I’m happy with my power profile more than I would be at 4w/kg at a lower weight and lower

Using the Coggan Data is an option on, if you switch from age ranges to “Coggan Male”. If you read the discussion again you’ll see the difference between that data and the ICU users is exactly what’s being discussed (e.g. Sprint percentiles are very different)

I asked a question based upon my Intervals age/power data and TR guys answered it, but incorrectly assumed I was referring to Coggan data, when I was referring to the Intervals age-W/Kg charts. Here’s the video: Metabolic Efficiency, Marking Riders, Sustained Power and More – Ask a Cycling Coach 314 Since I’m an old guy and have been training for only 3 years, my Coggan data is not strong. But what’s interesting is my short power using Intervals age/power/WKg is in top 1/3 of my peers, but 20+ minutes is bottom third. But for Coggan, my 20+ W/Kg trend is other way, with longer times better my short power. I’m guessing that’s the nature of Coggan data, which is geared toward short races?

Coggan data is explained on page 40 of the 3rd edition of Training and Racing with a Power Meter. Put simply, he collected data on:

  • world champion athletes
  • novices

and then came up with ranges and filled in the data in between the top (champions) and bottom (novices). On page 41 he explains that some 50 and 60 year olds can still race with some of the best amateur 20 year olds, and therefore he has no plans to produce a masters chart.

For juniors, my coach Isaiah Newkirk produced a chart like Coggans: Junior Power Profile Chart – FasCat Coaching

Hope that helps.


@bbarrera How’s Isaiah working out? I’m thinking of using fc in the near future for an A race push. Not knowing all the coaches and looking at pricing I’m wondering who to go with. Ideally Frank because he’s older and I think he has a first hand understanding of what it means to get old. I don’t really know if that matters though. Thoughts?

Isaiah is awesome, last 90 days I’ve snagged a lot of new power bests (red)

that includes all rides since December 11, 2017 until now. They all share Frank’s basic philosophy but every coach is different.


Maybe users (especially in your age group) just don’t sprint much. Also, remember the Coggan power profiles include data from elite track sprinters and BMX riders which skews the first two columns for most endurance riders (including road sprinters).

1 Like

Idk why this thread popped up again for me again , but I checked my numbers for this year and they’re uh no bueno compared to last year.

Interestingly though, based on the amount of KOMs and PRs I’ve taken lately I feel significantly faster out on rides than I did in prior years despite my watts telling me I’m slower. Go figure. :face_with_monocle:

Idk what to believe now.

1 Like

these numbers are only representative if you have done all out efforts at 5s/60s/5m durations. I very rarely do all out efforts at 60s/5min durations, so my charts dont look very good, until I do an effort that happens to be exactly that long, then it bumps me up

Remember, as stated above.

The Coggan chart is madness for road sprinters. If you can pop off a 24w/kg sprint you are NEVER reaching the end of any proper road race on Earth.

It’s track sprinters and BMXs that need to focus on 5s power.

Really, just ignore it totally. Use the fantastic comparison to compare yourself to other actual road cyclists.

In fact, the owner very nicely added the one metric that matters for road sprinters…

15sec power

That’s the best metric for road sprints, bunch kicks in crits etc.

I’m a road sprinter myself, my 15sec is 15.3w/kg. Good for a 47y. Pretty average for a sprinter across all ages.

18w/kg for 15sec is exceptional for a road sprinter. 20w/kg ish is world class, Caleb Ewan.

Interestingly, it’s also the most valuable metric for winning a majority of Zwift races. Basically, a long painful sprint.


Your MAP is higher (but for a shorter duration) which makes some sense if your KOMs/PRs are on shorter segments? Your data isn’t that different to last year really either… There’s also the question of how many ~5 min efforts have you done recently?

It’s mostly just the w/kg has gone down due to higher kgs. :rofl::rofl::rofl:

I agree the power numbers are very similar though.

Just to add a little amateur perspective on the Coggan charts, I think or at least IME what is way more important is your power metrics say after 1000Kjs or 2000Kjs etc…I don’t recall if I’ve ever set a power PR in a race but, it’s far more usual that I don’t and I think this is the norm for most amateurs. So, perhaps someone has a much better 15 second sprint by the numbers, fresh than me. But, usually their 15 second sprint after a couple hours of over-unders (following wheels in a race) is much lower. At least this is my theory as nearly everyone reports these crazy high power numbers but, they are never there at the end of the race.


Or… they are just lying to themselves with a bad power meter or scale.


Always a possibility. I do think the majority can do what they say fresh but, it just doesn’t seem to be the determining factor with respect to results. On the flip side, the guys that crush me (that I know/race against) have slightly better metrics but, literally are the freaks that attack when everyone is gassed. Not only attack but, hold it for 5, 10, 20 minutes.

I posted this in the doping thread:

Moral of the story is do you, and don’t worry about where you stack up, because there are measurement errors all over the place in all of these metrics.