I took some screenshots
If someone just deletes a workout or changes it to an easy endurance would that show up in your dataset? If not might you actually be underestimating the impact of huge rides.
Great episode and a well communicated breakdown of the data you used and (tentative) conclusions reached.
In the episode you discuss the 3/4/5 W/Kg groups and their average weekly TSS/hours - I’d be keen to know the average zone breakdown for those groups - are the mostly pyramidal? Polarized? Else? Does the weekly zone breakdown follow a regular pattern of change as the season progresses?
They aren’t currently. We should publish them on our blog, eh?
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This misunderstands the content and misrepresents how TrainerRoad currently works.
Corrections for the content:
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This looked at training data over the last 12 months. To just see this in the context of the Dynamic Endurance era, I did try only looking at data from February forward. Although the sample sizes were smaller, the data showed the same trends.
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It is much more common for athletes to not follow their plans with compliance than following it with high compliance, and this particularly applies to big rides. So the comment about TrainerRoad plans pointing to this being a logical result isn’t representative of reality.
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I stated this in the podcast and above, but Endurance rides were not removed from the data set. They were only filtered out when we were looking at the next hard workout after a big ride
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It’s very possible. With this analysis I didn’t yet have a way to track down that action path of [hard workout is scheduled] –> [hard workout deleted or changed].
So while this may actually only represent partial impact of big rides, I didn’t want to make assumptions that weren’t fully backed by the data we could see from the analysis.
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Working on this one as we speak! It’s interesting because a not insignificant portion of our data comes from athletes not following TrainerRoad plans with precision, so I think it would be a better representation of an average group of cyclists than some may initially assume.
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Could you look at days between High TSS workout and next hard workout? Might that show it? Although it might be less intuitive.
Per my recollection, I tried that route but it was noisy and in some cases athletes would have scheduled on their calendar to have 3 days between their big ride and their hard ride, so it just made things tricky.
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Thanks!
I too do ultra endurance events.
Looking at my most recent build week
Weekly TSS 985
Longest ride TSS 342 = 35%
Next longest ride TSS 202 = 20%
The way I handle building the long ride is split it into two on back to back days. Then about every 8 weeks or so I join the two together and just do the one long ride, with an extra rest day. Then return to back to back slightly higher load than lowest of last build micro cycle.
You have to be smart about scheduling your intensity days. I have my two both after rest days.
Recovery week every fourth week etc,
Did an ultra at the weekend TSS 1271 in a single ride. Very mild DOMS. Now a recovery week 
Something that has worked really well for me the last couple years -
I double up workouts on my intensity days. Intervals for a couple hours on the trainer in the morning (or outside if the weather is good), a couple hours for lunch/break, and then a long endurance ride in the afternoon (often in the heat, which is tolerable at endurance pace). Saturdays are typically a long ride that includes a group ride in the middle (I ride endurance before and after the group ride).
I’m usually pushing 1000+ tss per week during the core of my season, with the bulk of that TSS being on tues/thurs/Sat (with my intervals on tues/thurs). Every once in a while, I might have a 400tss day (~35-40% of weekly volume), but those long days are typically 275-350tss. For me, the model works well because I feel like I do better when I have lots of rest/easy days. And I work up to those long days as the season progresses. I might start with 1 hour of intervals and 2.5 hours of endurance, but eventually doing 2 hours of intervals and 4 hours of endurance. And when I ease into it, these long days don’t leave me wrecked. I rarely ride on Sunday and Mon/Wed/Fri are either rest days or short endurance/recovery.
The 50% rule
"Of my 816 evaluable rides 93 broke the 50% line — that’s 11.4%, or about 23/year. TR’s self-selected athletes break it once in 14 rides (~7%). You’re ~63% hotter than their self-pickers.
Crucial counter-finding: the 7-day-after-breach TSS average is 436 in your data, versus 379 after sub-50% rides. You consistently train MORE in the week after a big ride."
It was interesting looking at that. That is with my long endurance events/races I do - I dont come in cooked for a long ride and in fact most of the time the next week is then Build week and I am hitting my targets.
But I am creating a chart now to keep track so if I am breaking it I am intentional about it and pay more attention to down stream effects
You probably mentioned this in the podcast, but I missed it: Are you going to post the articles with the charts & such that you were going through? If so, on the blog or elsewhere? When they go up it would be great if you would pin a post on this thread with the links.
This was a great one. Thanks.
j.
Sounds like your long days are not so dissimilar to mine.
Just looked at another build week and the longest ride is 27% of weekly TSS, and next day 20% of weekly TSS. That was a 1005 TSS week. Like you, I have built towards that over the micro cycles.
Your two a day model works well for freeing up that extra rest / recovery day. I tend to recover pretty well, slow twitch dominant I guess. I have two rest days a week (ahead of intensity days) and a third easier endurance day. The latter can be made a rest day if I need it. I do sometimes do intensity and endurance on same day. I am not good at getting on the bike twice a day though. If I do it, I will get the intensity done, then run it straight into the endurance and get everything done for the day then recover.
But also being disciplined with the recovery week is essential. The deload weeks are essential and I will bring them forward if I feel I am carrying too much fatigue.
I do find it hard to believe 1 missed workout in a month equals 5 watts of missed gains. Maybe if there is a cascade of trouble caused by the fatigue that goes beyond just that one missed workout. Ime, this is what happens if you bite off more than you are ready for, it isn’t just one workout, but every hard workout until you get a proper deload.
I’ve long been a firm believer consistency is the#1 target on endurance training. The various points brought up by Jonathan in the queries support that idea. In a podcast a few years ago I heard a very simple quote by a previous pro now turned coach. “You do the training, so you can do the training, so you can do the training.”
+1. That part of the podcast had me shaking my head thinking I must be misunderstanding what was being said. Maybe there are some fringe cases where someone hardly ever trains and that one workout represents a significant part of their training load, but fitness is built brick by brick over time. Consistency and habits are what makes the needle move over time, not a single workout (ie brick) added or missed. I’m just assuming there is more to that analysis than what I heard on the podcast.
It sounded initially like missing one workout in one month caused a 5w drop by end of year, but then it changed to missing one workout every month caused a 5w drop. The latter sounds reasonable.
So you’re telling me I can skip a workout once a month and ONLY miss out on 5 watts for the year? Sign me up. 
Which sort of workout are you skipping and why is it VO2 Max?