I think we agree here, to some extent. I think AIFTP is less subjective.
OP, your ftp prob will be about what it is so long as you’re past your beginner gains and aren’t changing volume or intensity much. Given you’ve got your 2 hard rides in per week, I dont see much more happening on the intensity side of things.
Personally, I train the about same way all year and my ftp is probably ±5% depending on training time availability. For me, that’s maybe 15-20w either up or down. My beginner gains are long past me, so I know that data point and basically train TTE at ftp (time to exhaustion - how long I can sustainably ride the midpoint number I generally assume is my ftp).
You might consider ‘keeping it simple’ with a mindset similar to that. Sky is not the limit, and a lot of people get bogged down thinking that way (not saying that you are but just mentioning it). If you’re really more fit, there will be no question about it - AI ftp detection or not. If you gain 1% ftp or 3watts on ftp, is that really a ‘gain’ or a rounding error. Cmon now people!! lol
My question for the OP is - why do you want a bigger FTP number? Do you need it for your riding/racing?
You could flog yourself for a dozen extra watts, but if FTP watts aren’t your limiter for your goals then what’s the point?
If you do need more FTP, change something. More easy volume if you can. If not, maybe change the style of your intensity. If you’ve tried lots of steady intervals, do Tabatas instead for three weeks. Novel stimulus may be all you need.
Ftp is always 100% aerobic, that’s why when you do a really hard all out effort in WKO5 your FTP will decrease and FRC (and usually tte will increase)
Physiologically of course threshold is a quasi steady state of a certain blood lactate concentration (iirc 4mmol/l),
I made a change in my post above but in essence threshold is a real physiological state where the production of lactate is about as high as your body can just barely clear
4mmol/l is a population average. Blood lactate at MLSS has quite a broad range and there are significant outliers, including @Jonathan at the high end, IIRC.
As always in physiology. Lactate isn’t a problem, supposedly it’s superfuel even, it’s the H+ that causes all the problems, if your body can buffer and exhale all that H+ you could of course tolerate higher Lactate levels
Really look at the pic or open the corresponding graph:
PD (power duration) curve = anaerobic (frc) + aerobic (ftp)
There is no anaerobic contribution to ftp, the anaerobic system only produces lactate, it doesn’t clear it
I’ve always used FTP as a measure of improvement although I appreciate it’s a single data point.
I’m 58 next year and mitigating the potential loss of my top end is a focus and improving my ftp has also been a driver and a measure to improve my climbing ability. I had some solid gains following the polarised route last winter which aligns with my overarching goals. I just need to ensure the gains are sustainable.
While my ftp hasn’t moved by much my power has improved to a given heart rate which is another measure. I’m just trying to understand decoupling which seems to have many variables which can impact the outcome,
I didn’t have any hard expectation towards this winters training as I’m content on following the process and seeing where I’ll end up. I wanted to check in and reset if needed.
I have but perhaps you have a link. I think that what Cusick and Coggan think is the real clever part of their power duration model is how it can distinguish between the aerobic (ftp) contribution and the anaerobic contribution (frc) at a given duration
I recall Coggan posted on this forum a year or two ago and basically kept pushing the notion “that all roads lead to Rome- dont take it too seriously. We keep talking like certain intervals do this or that, but they all improve aerobic fitness and vo2max, etc. Some may target the adaptations somewhat faster, but most of the empirical studies are not very convincing (according to him, who I defer to). If you want big meaningful improvement in aerobic fitness (eg ftp), you need to up the volume. If you are time constrained (like probably 99% of us on this forum), then you really should be riding hard alot more often than you like, at a pace that we usually call high tempo / SS / low threshold, to get a really good workout that you can quickly recover from and do again.”
In my personal experience, I ‘know’ how fit I am based on how it feels to ride at 400w and for how long I can hold it. I’ll sometimes shoot for 5-15 minutes, and where ever I red-line in that duration window, I have a very good idea of what I could ride for long periods like 30-45mins (a ftp, if you like). That number (400w) might be different for you, but its a pretty good way to ‘test’ your level and alot less complicated. Essentially, its using RPE but I observe my (rising) RPE at a fixed wattage across time. For example, if I can only do like 7 mins, I know im probably around 340ish watts… 10 mins 350w… 12-15mins 360ish.
I also personally ride ‘polarized’ - meaning that I usually noodle around 60-65% ftp (easy) on most days, but do some well defined hard efforts one or two days a week (at least high tempo up to vo2max power). I could probably ride everyday for an hour at 80-90% ftp like Coggan was recommending or saying that he did when he was younger and similarly time constrained, but I dont like the feeling after the day-to-day riding like that - I prefer feeling super fresh, smashing a workout one day, then noodling around until the next. Probably isnt the best way to optimize your FTP/fitness, but like I said in my earlier post, I float in that -+5% range yearly anyhow.
All that said, to OP, if youre already a TR guy as you have shown us, then you already have some good workouts that youre used to doing. Not sure youre gonna get much better just by ‘work smarter not harder’, because you already are working smart with TR workouts. If upping the volume isnt realistic, and you want a carrot to chase, maybe consider targeting some power duration and try to chase a ‘personal best’. I did this one winter when I specifically tried to do a top 1min power, 3min power, and 5min power. Doing so, youll at least keep your current gains, if not increase your ftp because you cant actually train to ride 5min super hard and not also be increasing your overall aerobic fitness (all roads lead to Rome).
When opened my laptop I saw reply notification again. So I googled the explantion from WKO5, (m)FTP is strictly aerobic
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w045U0zTkgs (explicitly mentioned around 2:06)
Maybe, but it doesn’t make it more accurate. In my experience, AI FTP can deal with incremental changes very well, but is often completely off if I have longer training breaks (planned or unplanned).
In contrast, the conversion from FTP test result to set-FTP has been very consistent and less dependent on circumstances.
Just in case you didn’t know, you can edit that chart to include 10 mins. Click “Best Efforts” on the top right of the screen.
There are plenty of ways to skin a cat and they don’t all work for everyone. These threads are always hilarious in how militant everyone is about which way is “best”.