Been doing TR plans for a couple of rounds now. And structured training for, maybe, a little longer than that….at most a year, I guess. Two years since I started actively riding again, but a lot of that not structured.
Ok, so I saw the standard pattern of improvement. First, really big jumps in FTP. Like 200 → 220 → 245. The last couple of months, it’s planed off a bit..but still good! like 245→250→253. So about a 1-1.5% each month.
I know that won’t last forever. But if it did last a year, that’d put me at 4w/kg.
What I’m curious about is the typical rates of improvement if you stick to the structured training? Like “by X years of structured training you’re probably close to your genetic potential at this volume. Marginal gains will probably be slow and related to gradual volume increases.”
Something like that.
Here’s what ChatGPT says…sound about right?
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A Rough Heuristic
Year 1: 10–20% gain (what you already experienced).
Year 2: 5–10% if consistent.
Years 3–5: 1–3% per year.
Beyond 5 years: <1% unless you increase volume or radically optimize your life around cycling.
It depends. People plateau at different points in their training and sometimes small changes can lead to large improvements even after years of training. Other times you need a larger intervention.
I would say ChatGPT is underestimating the improvement rates. I did the calculations, and even based on the highest improvement rate, a rider starting out at 200w FTP would only reach a 332w FTP after a decade of riding. That appears to be a rather pessimistic estimate.
w/kg matters here alot, but there are lots of riders who struggle to get much above 300 even after a decade of riding. Take all ChatGPT with a grain of salt, but this seems like a reasonable estimate for someone in the middle of the bell curve
At some point the gains will get even smaller at your current volume and training load. If you can maintain a high level of fitness during the winter period and then start another build in the spring, you’ll build off this year’s fitness. If you detrain back to 200 over the winter, then you’ll probably experience a similar progression though you may get there a little faster the 2nd time around.
I’m actually pretty good being consistent through winter. Better than spring I’d say. I did more volume last winter relative to this spring, but it wasn’t structured.
Winters are long, cold, and we’re here. So I just get on the trainer and read.
As you start to plateau, your biggest friend will often be more volume. I’m a newer cyclist with about 18 months since starting. I went from around 222>272 in about 8 months. Then I fractured my scapula and backed off a bit for a bit over the winter. Over the next 5 months I went from 261>288.
Since my last race at the end of May I’ve cut back volume a lot mostly looking to maintain a FTP about 10 watts under my leak. I’ve been sitting around 280ish with what I consider a pretty manageable off season load (6-7 hrs/wk) vs the 9-12 hrs/wk while I was increasing. We’re in the middle of a cross country move, changing jobs, etc., so if I can maintain through December then hit my next major training cycle in January, I’ll be content with the progression. I’m around 72 kg, so now that I’m getting to the end of my newbie gains, if I can come into January with a 20 watt higher FTP than last year, that’s nearly .25 w/kg, which I think is a pretty solid progression for someone in their 2nd year of training, considering my first 15 months I gained about .95 w/kg.
