WvA is 76kg
JV is 59 kg
If I recall, JV had a minute into WvA at the base of the climb. Assuming WvA has a substantially larger FTP, (lets say 370 for JV and 470 for WvA), how much more aero does JV have to do be to gain a minute on him in 16.1 km?
it almost seems impossible that to put that much time into WvA over such short a distance.
Yeah, I don’t know what we just witnessed.
When you match or surpass record speeds and the times up climbs of known dopers I think it’s going to draw some suspension as well.
The stage started with false flat and then 1.3km @ 8.5%, the live tracker showed that Jonas had 15 seconds on Wout while he had not finished that first hill yet. His descending is also better (in large part due to being smaller and having lower center of mass) and he was really aggressive today so that netted him additional gains. TdF shared that he reached the highest absolut speed of all riders today (80+km/h). That is likely gps based, so maybe not the most reliable but on average equally reliable for all.
He shared in the interview that his plan was to keep ~360w for the flat part but felt good and was putting 380w. We might assume that it is at/below threshold and allows to recover and get ready for effort up the climb. Then up the climb he absolutely tore it up. Would be interesting to know what watts he did, which is hard to calculate due to somewhat false flat second part of the hill and aero impact, and sadly no one from TJV will be sharing power data. UCI should implement somes rules to share power say even 5 years later so that it would not impact their opponents strategies at a given time.
Overall, was expecting Pogacar take 15-20 seconds and was blown away with Jonas. Fingers crossed they are clean but such performance was a bit too much. That being said, Pogacar was at the same time as S Yates on the main climb part, so he was good, but was not having the best day for sure.
Yeah this was shown from the motorbike video. 80 km/h downhill in the aerobars going through corners !
I don’t know why people are saying it is over. Sure, it looks like JV is in control. However, a lot of time can be made up on the remaining climbs. To me it would be less surprising if Pog wins this TdF than the 2020 TdF.
I wonder what the odds in Vegas are right now.
ain’t over until they finish in Paris…
Look at how long the Col de la Loze is…basically ~35km of climbing (with a small descent in the middle)?
Yeah, this is still open…odds are clearly in Jonas’ favor, but I’d be willing to toss a few sheckles down on Pog right now with some pretty good odds.
Jonas -1000
Pog +800
By comparison, Jasper is -1,600 for points
What are the numbers?
I’m predicting JV wins by 3+ minutes.
Jonas - Bet $1,000, win $100,
Pog - Bet $100, win $800
Tossing this in here as it seems the best place…
And
http://www.urbanphysics.net/2015_JWEIA__BB_YT__Car_Cyclist.pdf
And
http://www.urbanphysics.net/20230717_Bicycles_on_Car_Roof_PREPRINT.pdf
I agree it’s still open. But… dude. Jonas’ TT was just bonkers. So I’m having a hard time thinking that, head to head, Pog can shake Jonas.
I think that a winning strategy for UAE wouldn’t be to try and get to yellow tomorrow. It would be to basically hit Jonas over and over again on the climbs to see if Pog can be the last man standing. But even if Jonas sticks with him tomorrow, he might get dented enough that he can’t hold up to the same repeat attacks in Stage 20 and Pog can blow his doors off then.
Exactly right….he can’t try’s no get it all in one day. He needs to get a good chunk back tomorrow obviously, but he doesn’t need to get yellow by any means.
It seems like if Pog DOES try and just attack over and over…JV, if he identifies that as the strategy early enough…could just say F it and go flat out the rest of the climb. You cant be a victim of an attack if you drop everyone.
Of course….the best defense is a good offense. Any attack leaves you open to a counter.
But you gotta risk it if you want the biscuit.
Oh 100%. But I was actually thinking about this more from JVs point of view. Rather than just be on the defensive and respond to attack after attack…just beat everybody up the mountain. I think…is it stage 20 has the mountaintop finish.
If the TT performance is anything to go by…JV is both significantly lighter AND stronger than Pog…he has just been choosing not to show it. It would be fun if he just blew the doors off the tour and made himself THE person to beat in the world, rather than just sitting on Pogs wheel for the rest of the week.
Edit: oh I take it back…mountaintop finish is tomorrow haha.
