I’m in a great mood this morning (24kg kettlebell arrives tomorrow!), despite the fact she took the last of the chicken to work, and that means I’ve gotta break habit and get protein creative with my lunch salad 
1 Like
We keep a bag of frozen cooked shrimp in the freezer for just those occasions
I use a peloton in addition to a trainer and road bike, mainly for endurance / aerobic riding. The lack of ERG for these type of workouts is really not an issue, as it is much easier to maintain a stable wattage on the peloton bike, compared to a bike on a trainer. It’s also much easier to get out of the saddle which helps with saddle issues greatly. Obviously, it’s not a road riding position, but for my aerobic stuff, I get the same adaptations.
1 Like
PTON @ $4.43 today. I hope some of you above didn’t think it was a deal at $6.
Wild to think this was at $160 two years ago. ~97% drop which is just crazy. It’ll be a case talked about in business school classes for years I’m sure
3 Likes
The ultimate covid/lockdown/stay at home stock.
2 Likes
They really caught lightning in a bottle.
The ultimate hallucination stock: we are a tech company growth stock. Well no, you are just a gym 
3 Likes
“Soar” is doing a lot of work in this headline…it went up 14%, but a 14% increase on a low number isn’t that impressive.
Yup.
Also seems like lots of companies in cycling and fitness have had similar issues. They just didn’t make national headlines like Peloton.
Is Wahoo still in trouble?
I think TR has a solid product that will stand the test of time, but codebase is all developed and I must imagine their growth is beginning to plateau. They haven’t talked about company stuff on the podcast in a long time, but back when they did, I was always under the impression that they’re overstaffed. Might be time to begin cutting costs if they haven’t done so already.
It doesn’t matter what the stock costs per share. If you have $10,000 in it, a 14% increase is the same $1,400 no matter the individual share price.
1 Like
I close to buying but didn’t. Had a weird hunch that it would keep going down after the announcement of the streaming availability
Sure…If you aggregate it out to a a larger holding, it can result in a decent number, no doubt. But my point was related to the cost per share.
Peloton is a great brand name but they really blew their IPO money in trying to be a tech company or something other than they were. I assume they were praying for a billion dollar acquisition by Apple or Lulu or someone like that.
Their competitors are companies like Icon Fitness (aka NordicTrack and a million other brands they sell under). Icon, now named iFit, has the iFit app. They have basically copied Peloton and made all of their equipment look a little sleeker and now the iFit app has all the same stuff as the Peloton app. But you can buy a NordicTrack at Costco or Dicks or anywhere else. And the iFit app per month is 1/3rd the cost compared to the full access Peloton app on peloton equipment.
Peloton can in no way beat Icon in the equipment manufacturing game or the distribution game or on price. IFit is on par with the Peloton app. No amount of features Peloton can add or invent can be a game changer. And eventually iFit will clone any innovation anyone else comes up with.
Before anyone invests in PTON, the question is when will they be profitable if ever. Can they ever pay off their $2B+ in debt?
My guess is that someone like Icon eventually buys the brand for pennies on the dollar.
This is a common issue in discussions of medicine/public health. The classic teaching example is the relative risk of lung cancer in smokers compared to non-smokers is 15 (1500% higher), for an MI 1.5 (150%) higher, but, because the risk of an MI In non-smokers is so much higher, smoking cessation prevents many, many more MIs than it does lung cancer cases.
As with the stock example, a small increase in risk for something can still have a big public health impact if that small increase affects a lot of people.
Peloton has (had) a good thing going for it. They were quirky with some stuff. Like clothes they advertised. If you went to a store, like the flagship, they had essentially nothing on the rack. What they did have was usually smaller sizes because they apparently sold well. They had a few ‘existential’ crisis when I was riding them. They started getting pushed into censoring their instructors and also started pulling their instructors off their wildly flame baiting Facebook page(s).
One instructor noticed that when he farted on the bike, his heart rate went up. I laughed, thought it was really funny, but apparently the ‘flying monkeys’ took to arms against that moment. The instructor, perhaps, could have handled the punishment better, but I don’t really blame them either. Peloton started pushing ‘clean’ rides, and even ‘religious type’ rides. Some instructors (all?) ha to have their song lists approved. It got ‘interesting’, and they supposedly lost subscribers over it.
The issue of the bikes being horribly inaccurate came up repeatedly. Some instructors were also claiming that the bikes actually had a power meter in them, but it was all a murky equation that corporate would not divulge. People were also having issues with the delivery people, and bike and bike hardware failures. The frames were steel, might still be, and rusted. They had a major pedal recall too. There were lots of people quitting the program, and their bikes were flooding driveways, ebay and Craig’s List, etc. People also figured out how to hack the Android based consoles.
But they were the best thing happening, coupling an interactive console with a spin bike. They could have run things differently, and yet they had a HUGE devoted fan base. Their "Homecoming’ was often sold out in days, and people planned trips to ‘The Mothership’ and one, if not several in studio rides.
They got me into having my own trainer and Zwift and TrainerRoad, so there should be some amount of acknowledgement given. 
But they sure played the pandemic wrong. Wanting to switch manufacturing to America, and get more control over their manufacturing is not a bad thing. The wife surprised herself with a new Peloton and I was horrified to see that the handlebars were shipped, and delivered, crooked! 
And getting a replacement was surprisingly difficult. (It was in the middle of them ending their field service agreement that provided the installation of parts for owners in good standing. (Replacing the bars was no big deal, but some people need a manual to change a light bulb)
I hope they survive. They have helped a lot of people. They survived the early KickStarter days, and did what I thought would rock the world. I think they like the taste of their own koolaid and lost sight of the goal.
Sorry if this isn’t proper here. I really did like the Peloton. It was the inaccuracy, and ‘cooked bikes’ that drove me away, but earlier generations were never designed to be a serious training bike. The last one at least claims to be self-calibrating. (It’s a start) Being unable to tell where my new found physic was in relationship to others. Some of those others found ways to ‘cook’ their bikes to make themselves look near superhuman. To what goal? I have always found it ridiculous/silly that people would do that. Like cheating at golf: pointless, stupid, silly…
Ride on…
2 Likes
This is one of those issues that in retrospect it’s hard to believe I made as much money as I did. Ha! PTON was very nearly a double for me back at the end of 2022.
1 Like
1 Like
great, now let’s hear from all of those poor souls that bought at or near the peak and are out 80-90% of their money.
Single stock picking is gambling, just like in every other casino.
3 Likes
Ha! Yeah, really. One of the things that has amazed me right the way through my investing career is how drek securities can return phenomenal (long) gains.
“Single stock picking is gambling, just like in every other casino”
Absolutely true. I’m just 4 sigma lucky, that’s all. In the market, luck pays just like skill. Back in the day Kiplinger flew me out to NY to do a photo shoot…and that’s exactly what I told them then: I’m just lucky. Beginner’s luck. 
Just beginner’s luck.
1 Like