It’s not the clearest wording, but I think you have misread that. I don’t think those are subscriptions that are coming to an end - they’re the number of subscriptions that they ended the quarter with. So they ended Q3 with 2.962m, and ended Q4 with 2.966m, meaning they’d increased by 4k over the quarter.
Ah, yes. I think you’re right.
Just so I’m clear. What does the last row signify (Ending App Subscriptions)? How many people cancelled for the quarter?
My guess is that App Subscriptions is the number of stand alone subscriptions (bring your own bike).
Correct.
Connected Fitness Subscriptions: People have Peloton hardware and pay $45/month
App Subscriptions: People have BYO(B) hardware and pay $13/month
Fwiw, next earnings call is still a month way (Nov 3rd). Given that will have covered the summer period, I wouldn’t expect the sub-numbers to be super insightful (other revenue numbers perhaps). What’ll be far more interesting is the quarter after that, as people start migrating back indoors for the winter
Likely behind a paywall but y’all can find the CEO comments at additional sources.
I wrote PTON puts this week.
What strike? I hope you got paid well for them 
It would be great to see some stats on the various fitness trends over the last 50 years, and which ones have stuck around.
70’s seems that jogging was big
80’s had aerobics
90’s had step, maybe triathlon
00’s … box fit?
10’s … maybe cross fit, spin studios?
My point being, that I would expect that the growth, peak, decline and flattening out to a longterm attendance level, is pretty consistent across them all (perhaps the data needs to be number of users per 100k population, to account for population growth).
I see Peloton as being the same. It’ll peak, then decline down to some stable level like all the fitness crazes that came before. Is that climbing to 30m users and declining to 10m, or is it climbing to 7m and declining to 500k … I do not know.
Because you are bag holding PTON stock and think it’s going down further or that you’ve think it’s bottomed and you want to collect the premium?
Hey, I see that one can get about a 22% APR on $5.50 Dec2 puts!
I sold Ford puts yesterday.
I’ve never held a PTON pos’n previous to this. You can find an abridged version of my PTON analysis from a few years ago earlier in this thread.
Is this an emotional bet (play dollars, just for fun) or a more serious professional bet (i.e. significant dollars)?
If the latter, I’d be interested in understanding your analysis (financial, industry market, company and/or otherwise) that you don’t believe that the stock market doesn’t understand with the current pricing OR do you believe Peloton being more broadly impacted (eg. inflation soaring, interest rates soaring, global recession, etc) that will impact Peloton and the generally the industry it participates in [that isn’t priced in]?
Writing a put wouldn’t really be an emotional play. You write (sell) a PTON option at say $6, collect the premium and hope the stock doesn’t dip that low in the time frame of the option. Currently those puts are a nice return.
Or, you hope to be an owner of PTON at a lower price - so you write a put and maybe get PTON at a discount (stock price minus put premium received).
Or, you own PTON stock and want to hedge your downside with a put.
That’s a lot of work to divine your PTON put strategy. I was curious but you don’t have to answer.
The current PTON CEO has shown that the company is going to get DIO/CCC under control, which is for sure important, but also that mgmt is going to be a good steward of cash flow. They’re not going to announce next week that they’re going to be big in Germany or some capital-intensive growth plan…they’re going to pick of incremental opportunities & channels that don’t siphon off a lot of cash flow.
And I’m convinced that c-suite understand the PTON interactivity crown jewel & will guard it with an appropriate high regard.
So I said to myself, ‘Self, you should have already taken a pos’n.’ But if I look at the chart I’m reminded of that saying: there’s no such thing as a triple bottom. So maybe it really is possible to turn back the clock and buy this thing at a more reasonable entry point. If not, I’m happy to put that cash to work at 30%-40% IRR for a little while.
I SOLD (edit) a couple 18Nov PTON $7.50 puts this morning to play along.
My analysis of the chart shows a stock that has scraped bottom with a recent resistance level of $7-7.50. They had positive earnings a few days ago and the stock has been over $8.50 since.
The $7.50 puts give me a 75% annual return and it seems like a safe bet for 11 days out.
Sorry if I’m being dense - you bought some puts with $7.50 strike, the stock is at $8.50. Is that good or bad news for your position?
Sorry, that should have been SOLD. I sold the puts.
One could buy those $7.50 puts to protect an existing postion. Or, they could buy them if they thought PTON was going to tank, with the intention of reselling them later.
This seems like a better bet than the $6 I spent buying PowerBall tickets for tonights 1.9 billon dollar drawing. I need to raise some cash to justify buying a new trainer for my one bike to rule them all. I’ll think about your conversation with self, and see if I can find a path to getting faster in the comfort of my garage when it rains 
When I was on Cape Cod this summer, my wife and I bought $20 worth of Mega Millions tickets when the jackpot was $1.6B. Buying PTON puts would have been a better bet if one had the foresight to sell at its low (stock went from $9->$7 over this period), but it’s hard to beat the immediate gratification (or not 
) of the weekly pick. Good luck on your $6 bet!
despite the odds it is so much easier to put a fin and a dollar bill into the machine after buying groceries, and walk out with 3 chances at becoming a billionaire. Next drawing is tonight!
I regret to inform you that I am winning the $1.9B, but thanks for playing and adding to my windfall.
I am also pleased to inform everyone I will be opening the most-kick-ass bike shop ever since I won’t give a schitt if it is ever profitable. 