I’m in the final build phase of a Demanding Training Approach Custom TR AI plan. I just got my new FTP Prediction, and it’s the same number as the FTP detection for the 28-day period that just ended. This upcoming block has no vacation days, 2 interval days, and 3 endurance days a week for 3 weeks,…

[Screenshot_20260219-144859] ftp prediction today said 332, then after that prediction the prediction for my next is 4w lower. :melting_face:

Can you link or provide screenshots of your calendar? There’s more to fitness than FTP. Are you increasing volume, TSS, time in zone? Are you working on things that may introduce fatigue? Will doing another block at the same FTP lower RPE? (Also a sign of improved fitness)

Just following the custom plan TR prescribed for me for my upcoming event schedule. TR is the pilot, I’m just the passenger. I’m following the plan they laid out. Unless I’m misinterpreting this, they’re telling me their plan for me won’t improve my fitness.

Try Balanced rather than Demanding. See if that makes a difference.

These predictions are highly sensitive to the assumed survey response. If your actual survey response follows the distribution of possible outcomes rather than the most common one every time (which is highly unlikely), you may get a significantly different final result.

Thanks. I revised the plan as you suggested. Same FTP Prediction. The only differences between the two were three 0.2 to 0.5 easier endurance workouts with the Balanced plan. TR says “Demanding - Faster progress with higher training load. Requires consistent sleep, nutrition, and recovery to avoid …

Thanks. I agree with you. But wouldn’t the FTP prediction be based on the most common possible outcomes? And that prediction says my fitness doesn’t improve.

Yes, well kinda. But as has been discussed on other threads…. If, for example, you have 9 intense days scheduled in a block and they each have a 55% probability of saying very hard and a 45 percent chance of saying hard, then the the prediction will assume you will rate ALL 9 as very hard, when sta…

[image] SteveITKC: Unless I’m misinterpreting this, they’re telling me their plan for me won’t improve my fitness. Maybe I don’t understand what you are asking…. But you can improve fitness without improving FTP.

[image] SteveITKC: just got my new FTP Prediction, and it’s the same number as the FTP detection for the 28-day period that just ended. Try reading the FAQ

TrainerRoad

Past FTP detection = Future FTP prediction. Why won't TR AI workouts improve my fitness?

Training

JoeX February 20, 2026, 5:28am 11

Try reading the FAQ

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Past FTP detection = Future FTP prediction. Why won't TR AI workouts improve my fitness?

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