Agreed. Outside of a couple of WT riders, Keegan is who I follow/cheer for the most. That said, I don’t think he has any shot at being a GC contender. I don’t think he would take offense to that, to be honest. There are Americans in the WT, racing in the tour, putting up big numbers, and they are not realistic GC contenders.
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You should have a listen to the podcast, he gets plenty of coverage there…
I don’t really follow cycling that closely but honestly the TR podcast is a great promo for keegan, Hannah, and Ivy as it’s an interesting look into a world I’m not all that familiar with. No way I’d know about Squid Bikes without hearing so ivy talk about them. It doesn’t mean I’m buying one but it gets me looking at them or even curious what Keegan rides. But that’s why they have sponsors and all their instagram stories. But hearing them talk about racing and training is cool as it’s just another level
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As an example, there’s a Bradley Wiggins podcast recently where he talks about Tim Pidcock’s potential as a GC rider in the Tour. Wiggins essentially believes yes, Pidcock does have the skills to be a GC contender, and could potentially podium the Tour. But he would have to go all in for 2-3 years and have the full support of Ineos to do so, meaning the XC and CX would all have to be put on the backburner. Pidcock has publicly stated he wants to compete at the Paris 2024 games, so unless his intentions and Ineos’s intentions line up, he won’t even have the chance regardless of him having the skills.
This is a long way of saying that I totally agree with @TheBandit that true GC contenders are rare. Additionally, I think people’s views may be slightly confounded at the moment by Tadej Pogačar’s success in grand tours, one week stage races, classics and monuments. He is arguably a once in a generation cyclist who can do different things successfully in the same season.
I wish they would give Hannah, Ivy, Alex and other higher end cyclists more coverage and get them to contribute, even if it was a monthly 30 minute podcast based on a discipline relevant to that time of the year. The stuff they did with Justin Rossi was really good. While I know Jonathan in particular is friends with Keegan and I’m respectful of that, Jonathan and Nate seem pretty in awe of him and it’s all a bit cloying. Good for Keegan and his successes but I find Hannah, Ivy and Alex much more relatable than Keegan. I tend to skip podcasts with him on it now.
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Seems like a better gig to be able to control your schedule/race calendar and seek out sponsorships from the companies whose products you want to use instead of having to ride X or shill for Y on IG because that’s what The Company says you have to (although I’m sure there’s still some of that).
Either way, glad to see some excitement around his performances - he has had a phenomenal season. Mind-blowing.
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I find them all interesting. I can relate to them all on some level. I can see how Keegan isn’t viewed as the most exciting on the podcast as he seems to being very laid back and has that approach of “yeah. I just do that”.
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I discussed in a previous comment a friend of mine who a few seasons racing at the highest level in Europe. Fully sponsored for equipment and fees, but had to pay his own way for transport, accom, food, etc. Cost him 50k for two years. Now that he is back in NA he actually makes money because he can win/podium races.
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I think this analogous to swimming in the US. I live in Detroit and in a metro area of 4 million people there are maybe 20-30 kids 18 or under who take road bike racing seriously (almost all are track racers). The summer league swim team at my neighborhood pool has 200 kids on it. There are several thousand kids in the area who are competitive swimmers. Nation wide, USA Swimming has 45,000 license holders who are 10 years old or younger; 238,000 total.
Those kind of numbers make a huge difference in how full and competitive the pipeline is but it also has a huge impact on the availability and quality of coaching. Those numbers support paying for top notch coaches on local club teams. And, there are literally hundreds of college level swimmers who work summers sharing their knowledge with 8 year olds coaching summer league teams. This is the major reason the US has dominated in swimming at the Olympic level.
I think you see a similar environment in cycling in Europe and similar results.
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Cycling, motorcycle racing, F1, etc. spot on.
So. Much. Coverage.
That is really interesting, thanks for posting.
(General reply) - It strikes me as a completely reasonable proposition that Keegan could be a WT rider. He was a world-class XCO rider, though obviously not at the pointy end from which WT riders have emerged. But it’s pretty clear that as the days get longer, he gets “better” relative to the field, which is the sort of work he’d have to put in on the WT. So I don’t think his world XCO ranking means his chances are less than anyone better than him at XCO. Things like the Leadville/Breck double (both of which had WT riders in the field) show he can do it day after day as well. None of that means he would necessarily be a great one, but I think it’s very difficult to argue with a straight face that he’s physiologically lesser than a replacement-level world tour rider.
I also think the days of needing to prove it for a number of years on smaller circuits are over now that we have so much data recording available (JV’s recruitment to uhh…JV being the most obvious example). He seems to be interested in being courted, but if he proactively sought out a contract, he could get a look by a pro team in a matter of a few phone calls.
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Keegan’s probably on pace to clear 300K this year with sponsor agreements and extra money from results that sponsors are obligated to pay out. Never mind the tax write offs and free entries they get from promoters giving them discount codes or so and so taking care of it.
I use to be the sponsorship manager for a brand in CO. We would pay out X per year to have this athlete and then have agreements in place for extra $ per social and podcasts post/mentions of our product along with paying a percentage on events the athletes did well.
So if one of our athletes did well at X Games and prize money was say 10K. We would either match that or meet a percentage. Usually we matched. If an athlete has 10 sponsors, that’s not a bad weekend.
This is also why brands are moving towards influencer athletes. Get more in return with little $ commitment
If that is true a WT contract of 39K (minimum, I can’t see why he’d get much more) seems very unlikely.
Plus these days he’s getting on a bit to be signed with no WT or Pro-Conti record. It might happen but extremely unlikely. However unlikely things do happen, but I can’t see it.
The downside is you are responsible for finding / maintaining those sponsorships, there is less security and if you get injured, you lose income.
If you are riding for a team, you are getting paid and you know it.
Pluses and minuses to both…but at Keegan’s level, yeah I would think the privateer route is a better financial option.
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I knew some folks who’s son was a snow boarder who medaled at the Olympics in his early 20’s. He was making close to $100k per year – when he was 12. People drastically underestimate how much someone can make on sponsorships even if its just a small niche market.
And this part is huge - the way WT teams and their sponsors work, someone like Swenson would have to give up many of his current sponsors but pick up very little if any sponsorship money in return. He would literally be putting a pile of cash on the floor and lighting it on fire if he decided to road race in Europe.
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Such a good analogy. I was a club swimmer growing up, pretty mediocre. Another swimming buddy (faster, but still mediocre, we were both cut from D-3 college swim teams) and I were backpacking in western Europe when we were 18. There was a one mile open water swim that we entered for fun, borrowed speedos and goggles. He won by 2 minutes, I came 2nd. One of the local swimmers we talked to told my friend he would probably beat the fastest swimmers in that country. My friend replied he usually wasn’t even the fastest person in his lane!
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Hahahaha yeah right.
Doesn’t his performance at Cape Epic put his level in better context relative to world talent?