ICYMI
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No, not necessarily. Keegan I think has gotten stronger and stronger throughout the year, but he was largely limited by Maxime not quite being at the same level (at least that’s how it appeared).
He was seventh at XCM World’s last year and is stronger now. It would be cool to see him take on the best XCM racers on some big European XCM courses.
How technical is Chequamegan?
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It’s not at all.
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I always enjoy these discussions.
However, they do tend to leave me thinking that many casual fans simply don’t fully grasp the insane requirements of true Grand Tour GC contenders.
- They have to be able to TT. Not just well, incredibly well. This takes years, yes years, of practice. Not to mention, considerable cost.
- Performance after very significant kilojoules of work. In the order of 6.5w/kg for 20-40m after numerous sustained 5-6wkg efforts over 4 to 5 hours.
- Repeatability. They have to perform everyday for 21 days of racing.
- They must be resistant to heat.
- They must have incredible day to day recovery.
- Unbreakable will power.
- The trust of 7 other incredible riders.
- Previous performances to garner the trust of those riders.
- The full support of their team.
- Able to perform at altitude.
- Able to make adaptations from altitude training.
- Ability to ride efficiently in the peloton.
- Gut tolerance to extremely high calorie consumption.
- Media skills / patience required to do this after racing.
- Solid bike handling skills.
Plus, about a million other less significant requirements. Or, other significant requirements I probably missed…
In short. Anybody attempting to succeed as a GC rider, having not already begun the process from a young age, is at a massive disadvantage. This does not mean it isn’t possible. However, it’s got to be almost impossible to overcome the head start life long road racers have.
Remco is probably the best example. On paper, possibly the most gifted cyclist ever. Based on pure aerobic performance. Yet, his late start in the sport is making it far harder to succeed. We’ll begin to see his true potential in the Vuelta in a just a few days.
Summing up.
Could a rider like Keegan race as a GC rider? Certainly. Keegan is an amazing athlete. One of the best in the world at his chosen discipline. However, his training history would put him at a significant disadvantage to life long road racers.
The chances of a rider coming into road racing over the age of say… 25ish, then, beating the likes of Pogacar, Vingegaard, Bernal, Roglic, Geraint, Froome, Remco, Carapaz etc etc…
I’d gamble that it’s so close to impossible that we’d might as well call it impossible.
That being said, Keegan, if you read this, then go on to win the Tour de France…
I’ll retire from having an opinion on anything related to cycling 
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How old was Roglic when he came over to road from skiing?
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Interesting what you say about Remco- do you know how his w/kg compare to Pogacar & JV?
correct…the depth in europe is on another level.
I recall seeing comments saying that Cory/Justin would win a bunch sprint at the TDF…commonwealth games results show otherwise
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Twenty two. Took him 4 years to get to World Tour. A guy I used to train with had the privilege of beating him in some low level semi-pro race he did way before anybody had heard of him - that’s a screenshot from Procyclingstats that gets regularly reproduced whenever he wins something big!
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I agree wholeheartedly.
But to add even more nuance to it, and as it almost always too simple to refer to Europe as one place (wether you meant to or not, many US folks do). Europe is give or take 50 countries (depending on who you ask) and the sports that dominate in the country differ between almost all of them!
This skews funding/coaching/development/competitiveness in youths etc as you said. Norway for instance (my home country) cycling is so far down the list of popular sports you wouldn’t belive it, even though we have managed some world tour cyclists. Cross country skiing, football and handball have all the numbers (and with the exception of football), loads of medals in olympics and world championships for those sports.
Denmark is one of the top nations in the world for badminton, rivaling China, Indonesia, Japan and Malaysia (countries with huge populations). Finland and Sweden have huge numbers for ice hockey and floor ball (totally dominating the latter, rivaling Canada, USA and Russia in the former). France and Italy is one of the leading nations of the world in fencing with long traditions. Serbia and Croatia are world leaders in water polo.
The list of examples is probably as long as the list of countries in Europe, and especially for the smaller countries, you only have so many people to go around and the bigger sports capture the talent and the results are very clear.
On the other hand, you have Belgium where the entire country is totally cycling-bonkers, no wonder they even though they are a small country, are so dominant and have a lot of riders on the world tour and pro-conti levels.
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Sometimes a country just gets a wave…Slovenia has a population of 2 million and they have plenty of top class World tour cycling talent on top of the big 2…thing is of course that inspires the next generation of kids to dream big and it continues…as mentioned some of the bigger countries especially the US have more choice, especially with the sports which dominate domestically (Football, Basketball etc) and can help pay for your education if you are good at them.
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His other talent is to be crazy aero. He is so young still that even if it takes him 2-3 years more to to win a GT, he will still be in a fast track of success. Remco is not a good example of the difficulties of starting late. Neither is Roglic. They are poster athletes of the opposite!
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And almost every time that happens, there is something behind it…Italy in the 90’s, USA in the 00’s, GB in the 20-teens…given the history of the sport, when a small country like Slovenia starts to dominate the sport, it is reasonable for people to be cynical.
Not necessarily…as others have noted, Roglic is the best example. Yes, those who have been in the sport since their youth enjoy a big advantage, but it certainly isn’t a requirement.
he is an amazing talent, but let’s not get carried away.
100%…his power numbers (especially in a TT) aren’t off the charts…but he is aero AF. I seem to recall some of his teammates saying that when he leads out the train in the last KM or so, it is really difficult to sit on his wheel.
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I would put it differently, “something along”, as PED’s are part of cycling culture in general, everywhere.
I don’t have any doubts about Primoz or Tadje…and I’m pretty cynical…I just think the latter is a once in a generation talent and the former has the strongest mental attitude of any cyclist I can remember
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Remco has recently set some truly incredible w/kg climbing performances. Possibly, near records for the current era.
Obviously, these are almost impossible to compare based on weather, power meters and unverified weight. His recent race performance had him set an incredible 2000+vam for a significant time.
https://www.strava.com/segments/740698?filter=overall
I suspect this has him at 7.2 - 7.3w/kg for 12mins, Pogacar / Vingegaard territory.
It seems he’s able to reach a very high level off the back of altitude camps. Although he’s not yet demonstrated the ability to hold that form for 3 weeks etc.
It’s possible he won’t be able to. Maybe, he’ll just be an incredible one day to one week stage racer. We’ll start to get an idea soon.
He’s actually a favorite for the Vuelta.
I’m still waiting to see…
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More Keegan-WT banter, now with more Sepp Kuss (reader view is your friend):
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WOW, you are a legend, thanks for the reader view tip!!!
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I wonder if Velonews mined the forum for ideas?
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I love that Sep Kuss quote. 
The drama is always fun. In the US scene, it seems like there’s always drama, whether it’s a crit or a gravel race. People act like they don’t care, but they apparently care too much.
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Hah, they must have. Funny enough, I googled “Keegan Swenson World Tour” a bunch prior to posting this. I couldn’t find a single article, interview or statement, that is why I posted it. I’d say the article sums up our questions perfectly, he could be interested if the right offer came along.
“I mean, yes and no,” he says. “I’d love to, but I don’t want to go do it just to do it, you know? It would take the right team and a good offer and them willing to gamble on me and not me gambling on them in a way.”