I’m going with you handle altitude a lot better than most, at least on the bike at Leadville pace.
I had a 315 FTP, 177#, spent two weeks at 10,000’ and my NP was closer to 200. And I’d done a lot of volume and fatigue resistance training so FTP was conservative if anything. I didn’t pace ideal and did have some left in the tank so could have gone harder, but not that much.
Thank you for this great response. I listened to the latest Leadville100 Pod with Jonathan, and at one point I think he says something along the lines of, ‘for Sub9 you have to do 2.5w per KG’. Not sure if he meant Elevation Adjusted FTP or Normalized Power after the 70% IF/Pace that he also suggests. I put together a little table to illustrate what I mean. The table assumes I can gain 10w in my FTP and lose 8 pounds.
Thank you, and TOTALLY agree. The way I see it, the SUB9 goal would be the cherry on top and its a extra motivator, but the main goal is to complete and enjoy the process and the ride. Loved reading your story, very motivational, thank you for sharing it. I actually did SilverRush50 last summer as well, we probably crossed paths at some point! Cheers!
Agree and its a great point. Luck must be on our side in terms of riding conditions. I am adjusting my expectations accordingly.
That’s roughly equivalent to you doing over 270 watts for almost nine hours at sea level (based on the most commonly referenced altitude conversions). If you can knock out 270 np for 9 hours with a 300w ftp, you’ve got the flattest power curve I’ve ever heard of. If you can’t hold that kind of power that long, it sounds like you might be off the charts for how little you are affected by altitude.
He just meant 2.5 W/KG during the race in Leadville. If you weigh 80KG, an NP of ~200 is going to put you on 9 hour pace.
Here are my numbers from last year. 315 W FTP @ Sea Level * .82 = 258W FTP in Leadville. 200W / 258W is a 77.5% altitude adjusted IF for me. I weigh 80 KG, did 196W NP (just checked) and came in just over 9 hours.
Very helpful, thanks for sharing your experience. Def helps gauge my expectations!
10000%. Nutrition and hydration is KEY. Thanks for the tips.
Love this, and part of ‘enjoying the process’ for me is geeking out about all of the gear and details. Going on an Epic8, aero helmet, aspens, waxed chain (maybe), aero bibs/jersey.
The support strategy is still in the works, fully onboard to try to minimize stop time! So any ideas are welcome! Not sure if we will be able to count with family members at feedzones.
At 178lbs, and assuming you’re close to sea level, you’d need to get to an FTP of about 325W to go sub 9.
That’s an increase of 65W vs where you are currently. You’ve gained 10W over the past 3 months. Seems unlikely you’ll gain 65W over the next 4.5 months.
Like others have mentioned, it’s still a great experience even if you don’t go sub 9. I’ve ridden twice, neither sub 9, and I’ll probably look to ride it again at some point in the next few years.
I enjoy marginal gains and if that is what you enjoy too then honestly more power to you, go for it.
I never want to be harsh or tell people they can’t achieve their goals but I do strongly agree with the others that you should shoot to do your best but also just enjoy your first time at Leadville and not let the pressure of a time goal determine whether you had a good day or not.
My first time I did a 9:50. Learned a ton, dialed in a lot of details and came back and went sub 9 on my next 2 attempts. To me that pattern worked great as I felt a lot more pressure on my preparation and performance on my later attempts that I didn’t feel on my first go. That was just about going the distance and experiencing the excitement of the event.
I’m an Olympian. What can I say 
I appreciate your question, and everyone’s comments, as it’s been my favorite topic these days. I am doing the LT100 for the first time this August as well, with a sub9 goal. I’m brand new to endurance sports; played college football (LB at 235lbs) nearly 20 years ago, and have only powerlifted since. Moved to the Front Range in 2021, and fell in love with MTB in late 2022. Signed up for the 2023 Silver Rush so I would have a reason to get out on my bike. Broke my ankle snowboarding in April, and didn’t get on my bike until the end of May 2023. No training plan, just random riding for 6 weeks. Had a horrible nutrition plan, and barely finished the SR50 on my SB130 (bought this before I knew I wanted to do XC) in 8:16. Despite the GI misery, it was an amazing day and I was hooked on Leadville. Volunteered in the 2023 LT100 for 15 hrs, and got my entry confirmed in January.
Signed up for TR in late August and put an old hybrid bike on a Kickr Core. I struggled early with consistency and fatigue in the first 3 months, but I have made very steady progress, hardly missing a workout since December 1 (only when snowboarding mountain day or fatigue conflicts!)
Weight went from 220 lbs at the 2023 SR50, now down to 200 lbs.
From end of November to a few days ago, FTP has gone: 263, 272, 285, 296, 307.
Doing Mid Volume, XC Marathon plan.
My goal is to weigh 190 lbs by early June, with an FTP ~330 by race day. (I live at 7,000 ft). Hoping that will be enough fitness to be able to ride at 2.5W/kg during the race. I bought a 2023 Epic Pro LTD last week, which will help considerably. Plan on pre-riding the course in sections over a few weekends in June and July, before/after Leadville volunteering shifts (for my 2025 entry).
Hope to go sub 5:05 (for green) or at least sub 5:20 (for purple) in the SR50 to get in the better corrals for LT100. From there, so many uncontrollable factors whether sub9 is going to happen. My plan is to do all the hard work between now and then, and then just enjoy the hell out of the race, no matter what happens. Being on the course last August, I was blown away by how much I enjoyed interacting with everyone.
Start following all those in this thread giving advice… They have been the source of most of my information for my plan. I’m also going through the podcast archives with Fatty and Hottie; started from their first episode in season 1, and into season 3 now. Hoping to catch all the way up by the summer.
Best of luck, let’s go get it!
This attitude is the goal. Good luck dude!
That’s a great mindset, enjoy the training. I’ll be up in leadville prior to the stage race (I’m volunteering as well for 2025) and I’ll be out on the course quite a bit if you want to connect for some pre-riding.
Wanted to post an update after completing the Silver Rush 50. I finished in 4:58, good enough for Green corral if they keep the qualifying times consistent from last year. The Leadville Race Predictor had a 1.7x multiplier last year, which would put my estimated LT100 finish time around 8:30. That seems really low, but who knows. I consistently weighed 199lbs leading up to the race, had a 26 lb bike, and a TR AIFTP of 310W (3.43 W/Kg) living at 7,000’. I had a hard crash at mile 15, which led to issues shifting the next 10 miles, and my chain fell off a few times. Stopped twice for my wife to swap bladder/bottles/maple syrup. Successful nutrition/hydration the until the final 14 miles; ~115g of carbs/hr, 1.2L/hr, 2,000 mg of sodium/hr. I pre-rode the course over 2 days the weekend before, and that helped immensely.
Garmin stats: Avg Power: 190W, NP: 232 W (2.56W/Kg), IF: 0.75, Moving time: 4:53:38.
I went in thinking 5:00 would be a stretch goal. Definitely gave 100% effort, and descended very aggressively all day. Saved my all out effort for the final climb. If I had a perfect day, 4:50 seems possible, which was red corral last year. Feels like I have no business being in that corral though. If I get in green, I’ll probably choose to start in the back!
Sub 9 at the LT100 still seems daunting, but I’m feeling more confident now. Still have some fitness to gain and weight to lose over the next 4 weeks!
Based on those numbers and result at SR50 I would say a sub 9 is definitely within reach. Averaging 2.5w/kg for the 100 is the magic number and the 100 is not as technically challenging as the SR50.
Good luck! You got this!
