So around May of last year, my fitness was at an all-time high. I was able to do a 75-mile gravel race where I and one dude rode the first half together (I don’t wanna sound like a jerk but I stayed with him cause I didn’t want to ride alone) and rode the last half solo by myself, finishing about 20m ahead of second place without feeling destroyed. (Tired, yeah, but I contemplated hoping in the 25-mile grand fondo just to do 100 that day). This race had me do about 240NP for the thing and is the best fitness I have ever been in.
I then went as a counselor to a summer camp for 3 weeks and promptly got sick as soon as I got done. My fitness sucked. I have done some training now and have a coach I like. My most recent FTP test has me at 270. I had not FTP tested in years. But my best 20m power during that time was 300W, and at one point I did 260w for 60 minuets average with an NP of 318, but that was also two hours into a very fast and punchy group ride. So if I had to guess, my FTP at that time was around 310, maybe 320 if we are being generous.
Is it a realistic expectation to get back to that fitness by that time next year, or is that pie in the sky land? I am able to train about 15 hours a week and may be able to do more in the coming months, depending on some life stuff.
I mean there’s only one way to find out. Almost 50 watt improvement by May is a big jump but I’m not knowledgeable enough to give that advice. Seems like a good question for your coach.
Maybe discuss what your coach sees as a reasonable target and aim for that. Maybe you exceed it or maybe you fall short but still improve.
I’ve never really been one to target a specific ftp. I just focus on the training process and improving my cycling fitness. And where I end up is where I end up.
Yeah. I don’t usually target FTP. But It’s the best way to kinda give a number to the fitness. I don’t think comparing FTP from person to person is useful. But comparing yourself when your goals are generally the same year to year. Ei long gravel races make it beneficial.
50w is probably a bit lol. I wonder if having hit it before makes getting to that level easier or shorter.
If you were there before, then you can probably get back.
I took 8 months off the bike. I did other aerobic stuff like rowing but at a much lower volume. When I started cycling again, I got 80% of my FTP back in just a few weeks, and like 90% back in a couple of months.
Trying to understand your dates. Your peak fitness was May 2025. You’re wondering if your can target this level of fitness by May of “next” year, as in 2027, or “this” year, which is 2026?
How long had you been training consistently to get to last May’s fitness?
I have been training consistently since I was 14. The 3 weeks was the longest I had been of the bike since being 14. I’m still in the “development/ junior” phase of things. U18. Honestly, I have no clue how I got that fit. I did basically just Zwift and long slow rides all winter with 0 structure going into 2025, and then just did group rides and chill days before May lol. I had just started to ramp my hours to 15. So that might be why my fitness got so high.
This year I have a cycling coach, so hopefully I will see large gains. But would he have to be a mythical worker to get me back to that level?
My personal experience… I’m in my mid 40s and have a compromised immune system which I’m sure plays into my ability to train/compete and I can’t maintain the same level all year so lately my season looks something like.. Start structured training in Nov/Dec, peak early summer, fade through Sep/Oct, take a month break with much less cycling/running, rinse and repeat.
Last year, AI FTP gave me an FTP of 280 when I resumed training in Nov and about 7 months later, it gave me an FTP of 319. So that’s an increase of about 40w for an older guy with health issues. A similar or larger increase for a younger, healthier athlete seems reasonable to me.
Looking at more comments here, I’d tend to agree that you could hit it at least by the end of May. Considering you were there without real structured training, you’re young, healthy, and sound motivated. I’d say it’s 90%.
I fractured my scapula November ‘24. I wasn’t totally off the bike but cut back on time and intensity for a couple months. I went from 272 > 261 over the following 3 months. Then hit it hard and increased my FTP to an all time high of 288 the following 3.5 months. You dropped a lot more (and getting back is more realistic than hitting new highs), plus you have 5+ months.
Target your 50 watts and go all in. Keep updating this thread as you progress, I’m sure a lot would be interested to hear how it goes. We’ll all be cheering for you.
If you have been there before, you can almost certainly get there again. And at your age, your genetic potential should be going up as well, so you should be able to progress higher than previous levels (with proper training). All that said, it’s hard to say how long it will take if your training path this year doesn’t match what you did previously. Personally, I wouldn’t set a wattage/FTP goal for May. Might be too high, might be too low. Just do the training that you have time/motivation for and you’ll end up where you end up. I’d bank on it being higher at some point, just hard to say if it would be May, July, April, etc.
Be careful reading too much into NP numbers and trying to project/compare FTP. In a punchy ride/race, it’s possible to generate a NP number well above your FTP for an hour. Particularly if you have decent anaerobic abilities and the effort is only an hour. Super common in crits for NP to exceed FTP. I’m not saying your FTP was or wasn’t 310-320, but doing 318NP for a single hour doesn’t mean your FTP was in that ballpark. NP is a great/valuable metric in a lot of ways, just not so great at estimating FTP. As bike racers, I assume almost everyone compares prior performance to current/future. It’s just important we are comparing apples to apples.
And if you are looking for good fitness measuring sticks from season to season, I find NP to be better at measuring actual performance than FTP in many ways. My FTP might only drop ~20w in the off season when I’m not training, but my ability to hold high percentages of FTP while repeating hard efforts drops off much more than that. That off season drop in performance shows up as a much bigger drop in NP over a given duration compared to my FTP drop. There is so much more to race fitness beyond FTP. I’m not saying you shouldn’t compare FTP year to year, just that there are other metrics that are more indicative of race performance. Another favorite of mine is 20’ all out test after pushing ~2500Kj’s through the legs (called a “tired 20”).