The wrong part is that I didn’t include the uncertainty in the number. Sorry about that.
But in terms of half-life numbers, even 3-10hr isn’t that big of a swing. In the two examples I gave the results look like 31mg and 61mg for the 3 hour extreme case. 66mg and 117mg for the 10 hour extreme case. It still begs the question, what is the effect? In the other thread you were mentioning that the receptors get desensitized so 100mg sloshing around 5 hours after your first cup of coffee isn’t as “effective.” In the end it sounds like we all just need to do a bunch of experiments on ourselves to figure out what works for us individually.