I’ve been looking through the new TR release and it is predicting an FTP drop in the next four weeks and I’d like to understand why. I’ve played around a bit with changing workouts a bit but nothing really seems to impact the prediction. Background information: Generated the plan through plan bui…

Answered here: [image] TrainerRoad AI FTP Prediction FAQs Announcements We’re slowly rolling out the new TrainerRoad AI today, and I want to answer some FAQs. What is AI FTP Prediction? AI FTP Prediction simulates your planned workouts in your calendar and p…

Based on your calendar, you have 3 hard rides not 2. I think you are accumulating too much fatigue on that Saturday that’s it’s impacting your other workouts, causing the red and yellow days. That red day is probably why your FTP is dropping. If you could change the intensity of that Saturday ride …

To highlight the issue look at the PL of the Tuesday workout. They are getting easier.

[image] Elgro: I think you are accumulating too much fatigue on that Saturday that’s it’s impacting your other workouts, causing the red and yellow days [image] brenth: To highlight the issue look at the PL of the Tuesday workout. They are getting easier. Ah yes, I see now. The PL leve…

[image] trebor: Guess I can just manually change the workouts or experiment with the training approach setting. So I tried adding another hard workout per week OR making the workouts harder and the prediction is always an FTP drop :person_shrugging: Not 100% what would result in an increase …

Try changing your weekend hard ride so that it doesn’t trigger a red or yellow day for your Tuesday workout. At the moment you basically only have two bike workouts per week, because that expected hard weekend ride lowers your Tuesday workouts up to the point that they are suggested rest days.

I think the system is identifying that you are pushing too much work and it’s trying to stop you from burning out. They talk about this on the Q and A podcast when the AI starts recommending lower Athlete Levels and red days. I think if you lowered the intensity and duration of your Saturday ride …

I don’t think that the AI predicted FTP plays nice with those “hard” unstructured rides on Sundays because it doesn’t know enough/any information about them. I think that the FTP will align with expectations once they are actually completed.

[image] Manlycookiebear: Try changing your weekend hard ride so that it doesn’t trigger a red or yellow day for your Tuesday workout. Thanks for the suggesting. Change them so that they only trigger yellow days and still and FTP drop. Deleting them completely → still an FTP drop.

Looking at your calendar I think the Sunday rides is what causing the issues. The fact that they are hard unknown rides, I think that since the system can’t predict against what it doesn’t know, it throwing a monkey wrench in the mix. Then because of that it’s effecting two of you Tuesday Vo2 work…

Help me understand why my FTP is predicted to drop

Training

cassinonorth January 25, 2026, 1:29pm 2

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Help me understand why my FTP is predicted to drop

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