I’ve been looking through the new TR release and it is predicting an FTP drop in the next four weeks and I’d like to understand why. I’ve played around a bit with changing workouts a bit but nothing really seems to impact the prediction. Background information: Generated the plan through plan builder. Started 11 weeks ago, A event in 9 weeks time made it a masters plan with two intense days and one endurance ride per week set the training approach to “balanced” doing around 5hr30 min of training per week when the new AI FTP detection shipped my FTP when from 225 to 228, so no change really Below is the prediction [image] Below are the next 4 weeks of training [image] [image] Insights appreciated :folded_hands:

Answered here: [image] TrainerRoad AI FTP Prediction FAQs Announcements We’re slowly rolling out the new TrainerRoad AI today, and I want to answer some FAQs. What is AI FTP Prediction? AI FTP Prediction simulates your planned workouts in your calendar and predicts your FTP on the prediction date. Your date is initially 4 weeks out; it will get closer as you approach it. You can change your planned training and see how it impacts your FTP; it’s super cool and my favorite feature. The simulation uses our predicted difficulty and predicts the most likely FTP you’…

Based on your calendar, you have 3 hard rides not 2. I think you are accumulating too much fatigue on that Saturday that’s it’s impacting your other workouts, causing the red and yellow days. That red day is probably why your FTP is dropping. If you could change the intensity of that Saturday ride that would likely help

To highlight the issue look at the PL of the Tuesday workout. They are getting easier.

[image] Elgro: I think you are accumulating too much fatigue on that Saturday that’s it’s impacting your other workouts, causing the red and yellow days [image] brenth: To highlight the issue look at the PL of the Tuesday workout. They are getting easier. Ah yes, I see now. The PL levels are decreasing throughout. This makes sense now! Guess I can just manually change the workouts or experiment with the training approach setting.

[image] trebor: Guess I can just manually change the workouts or experiment with the training approach setting. So I tried adding another hard workout per week OR making the workouts harder and the prediction is always an FTP drop :person_shrugging: Not 100% what would result in an increase → doesn’t seem like volume or intensity are going to help.

Try changing your weekend hard ride so that it doesn’t trigger a red or yellow day for your Tuesday workout. At the moment you basically only have two bike workouts per week, because that expected hard weekend ride lowers your Tuesday workouts up to the point that they are suggested rest days.

I think the system is identifying that you are pushing too much work and it’s trying to stop you from burning out. They talk about this on the Q and A podcast when the AI starts recommending lower Athlete Levels and red days. I think if you lowered the intensity and duration of your Saturday ride to endurance and make it adaptive endurance or 2 hours you’d see better results. All of your training volume is hard and intense and I think the AI has identified you need to step some of it back to make progress. Think about climbing a mountain, you aren’t always climbing directly up but generally you are moving up the hill. Minor decreases help you make bigger advancements.

I don’t think that the AI predicted FTP plays nice with those “hard” unstructured rides on Sundays because it doesn’t know enough/any information about them. I think that the FTP will align with expectations once they are actually completed.

[image] Manlycookiebear: Try changing your weekend hard ride so that it doesn’t trigger a red or yellow day for your Tuesday workout. Thanks for the suggesting. Change them so that they only trigger yellow days and still and FTP drop. Deleting them completely → still an FTP drop.

Looking at your calendar I think the Sunday rides is what causing the issues. The fact that they are hard unknown rides, I think that since the system can’t predict against what it doesn’t know, it throwing a monkey wrench in the mix. Then because of that it’s effecting two of you Tuesday Vo2 workouts, so for the for the month you’re really just doing four workouts that AI can see. If you were to change your Sunday rides to Moderate would that be enough to give you back your Tuesday workouts? Or leave it as it and if you’re feeling up to it do those Tuesday workouts anyway? They are still there just have to select it from the card. The prediction is not written in stone and if the system sees that you did the work it should make a difference.

TrainerRoad

Help me understand why my FTP is predicted to drop

Training

cassinonorth January 25, 2026, 1:29pm 2

Answered here:

Topic		Replies	Views
Doesn't feel worth the effort? TrainerRoad Software	153	4470	May 12, 2026
FTP prediction dropped from from +11 to no change the day after my last workout of the block TrainerRoad Software	78	2395	June 3, 2026
Suggestion for FTP Prediction TrainerRoad Software	40	1253	March 20, 2026
AI FTP drops 7w in 2 hours TrainerRoad Software	104	2890	May 19, 2026
Fun with FTP prediction! TrainerRoad Software calendar	31	1054	May 11, 2026

Ask a Cycling Coach Podcast

This is the only podcast dedicated to making you a faster cyclist. Listen to the latest episode and more.

We Are Here to Help!

Browse hundreds of articles in our Support Center or contact our world-class support team to get back on track.

Privacy Policy Disclaimer Terms Cookie Settings

Help me understand why my FTP is predicted to drop

Related topics

Get Faster with Adaptive Training

Ask a Cycling Coach Podcast

We Are Here to Help!