Dumbest pacing strategy physiologically but yeah, unfortunately this is how it is.
Well I was trying to me optimist with the first 15min but you’re right, it’s more like 30min to an hour 
Going to the next step, I noticed this language:
So when i go to races, i try to figure out where the first split will happen. So if its a hill 6 miles in, or a sketchy dh 10 miles in or a single track 20 miles in, i tell myself thats my finish line for the group i need to be in. i go deep enough to be where i need to be at that point. Then i figure out the rest from there. If i blow after that, welp oh well, need to rethink where i think i need to be and join groups from behind
Hey Lplante, I had similar issues to you. Might be a different angle, as I think nothing replaces experience, but my nerdy self built a race tactic tool to help me be better prepared re: pacing etc. I know there is the best bike split tool but that doesn’t take the dynamics of a race, competitors, weather etc into account. That works for time trials maybe.
you can give the tool a try here: flagdrop.cc – actually very timely as I just made it public to get feedback from folks. Would love to hear if it was useful to you!
Cheers,
Seb