GCN Tech Show - The tariff tantrum, and the effects on the bike industry and riders

A little government and a little luck are necessary in life, but only a fool trusts either of them. – P J O’Rourke

Just a reminder to keep this “bike” related…

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Also, “Why God is Republican and Santa Clause is Democrat.”

PJ was an alumnus of my school…went to a talk he did on campus while I was there and then a bunch of us went to his old, favorite bar uptown.

He was a genuinely good and funny man. RIP.

The current status is there is a 10% Universal tariff on everything…how well that is being enforced is anyone’s guess. I have seen many anecdotal reports of small shipments coming through without any tariffs.

Not sure how LeCol can say the price is inclusive of any tariffs because they aren’t levied against them, but you, the importer and they aren’t levied until they land. But I don’t think the “de minimus” loophole has been closed yet (early May), so that is probably the answer.

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I did think it strange to say that, but assumed they were talking about OUTBOUND tariffs and duties. Back far too long ago, I ordered a book from the UK, and it arrived with a ‘duty tag’ that I had to pay. An outbound duty. First time I’d ever seen one, and the last too. So far. It, ironically, was a history of the Tour de France. Still have it too.

Good Escape Collective article on the actual impacts off the tariffs, and how the math works out using the newly announced Silca Elettrico inflators as an example, and why these won’t be available in the US (at least for now)

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I deleted most of my posts on this thread. Cleanup in aisle 12…

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Nice one. LOL.

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During a trip to Canada (Toronto) over New Years too many years ago sadly, they instituted their G&S tax. The locals were calling it the ‘Gouge and Screw Tax’ for valid reasons (nice).

On leaving, we got a form to apply for the G&S to be reimbursed because we weren’t residents. I filled it our and included receipts, and…

Never got a refund. Let me point out at this point that the G&S on our lunch at the science museum nearly doubled the cost of it!! Seriously. (As the months ticked on, reports of people crossing the border with trailers full of baby diapers because of the G&S were legend) So, yeah, the government of Ontario still got to keep our money, even though there was the agreement to reimburse. Once a government has your money, you aren’t going to see it ever again.

Corrected a few posts below. Note, I have nothing against Canada or Canadians, so, yeah…

Here’s Silca’s video explaining the effect of tariffs on their new mini pump and the supply chain issues which means there’s really pretty much no way for them to get around using parts from China for This type of device.

No one really needs a high electric mini pump but this is a pretty good overview about how tariffs will affect a ton of different manufactured products from cars down to bicycle pumps. Supply chain and plant location adjustments could be made, but some of these adjustments are going to take years If they happen at all.

Damn, accidentally deleted my post while editing.

The GST replaced an embedded manufacturing tax on goods (13.5%) that consumers never saw because it was in the price of goods. It did however get applied to a whole new class of non-durable items, namely services and groceries to name a couple That’s what really pissed people off most.

The GST was 7% when introduced now 5% and Ontario sales tax is 8%. You paid 15% tax at most. The cost of your lunch would not be nearly doubled as result of the GST

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And you are correct. We ate there a day or two before, and there seemed to be no ‘big’ tax, and then it was 8%. We complained about it, and people that were there, Canadians I assume, were complaining about it too, quite vociferously. Some were, erroneously but with conviction, saying that their prices ‘had doubled’ and that it hit Canadians unevenly (the diaper and was it cigarettes taxes). I was amazed at the anger/resentment and passion people had over it. I’m not the best at recalling some details, but remember the emotions. People were not exactly happy.

My thinking
Since the US is about 11% of the world wide market for bicycles, perhaps companies will wait out the tariff bluff instead of trying to move production facilities.

Interesting use of words “bluff”, bc I think it may be quite descriptive. The bike industry knows that if they moved the manufacturing state side the cost of bikes and components will be no cheaper than the cost plus tariffs from Asia. There is no way Americans will do the same quality manufacturing while working for the same hourly wage as a factory worker in Taiwan. So, in a way, it’s a total bluff. Not possible.

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This works if a brand is 100% outside the US, and no piece / component of the bike has to go through the US. Otherwise every bike sold anywhere will have its costs go up. And for any company that is in the US, they will get hammered

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That, and once production is moved to the US, bikes will get more expensive for everyone - not just UC citizen (primarily due to production cost). This in turn should affect the volume of sales globally quite significantly and more than they are willing to accept. US is (currently) the biggest market, but not the only one.

I personally don’t care where my bike or parts are made. Cost is really the biggest consideration. So I would absolutely rather have the frames made overseas if the cost is lower. I wouldn’t pay extra for a made in America bike.

Just offering a counterpoint.

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Are you an American?

I can understand price obviously being a consideration, but a person from any country should generally strive/appreciate purchasing things domestically when possible, all else being equal.

I couldn’t imagine seeing two identical objects, same in price, quality, etc., with one being made domestically (whichever country that is for someone) vs internationally, and literally having no preference between the two. You mentioned price, which is an obvious consideration - no one is going to pay double for domestic generally, assuming the same quality.

I find it a bit comical in all these tariff talks seeing people of certain countries being like, “well, we’re gonna start purchasing more domestically, we’ll show them!”

…. I would have thought that’s something people would be doing already

“Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it.”

  • Mark Twain
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Absolutely, buy domestic when possible, but it’s not real. You can’t buy an equal carbon frame made in America versus Asia. Two examples for you: high end Trek frames versus those in Asia; and most recently Allied sourced their Able in Asia rather than being made in Bentonville and saved something like $1000 a frame.

As mentioned, Americans won’t work for Asian wages. Quality may be similar.

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For carbon bike frames, you are generally right and I can’t think of any counter examples.

As a general statement, I wouldn’t say, “I don’t care where something is made.” Sure, it may not have a huge factor over cost, but that shouldn’t be absolutely zero factor.

If I was looking for a titanium bike, I would pay a (certain) premium for domestic over international. That premium is going to be different person to person, but I don’t think it should be 0 for anyone. Granted, it seems there’s a lot more titanium domestic builders vs carbon domestic builders, so it’s a bit better example.

I have generally seen better welding on frames domestically than internationally.