Indeed. Maybe what we really need is a forecast of where we will be if we partially follow the plan and another for if we were to couch surf?
Thatās a perspective thing. Chances are you know if you are, or know if you arenāt, in with a shout.
For me, I donāt have a chance of winning races around here. Iām racing myself and getting faster all the time.
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Different strokesā¦
- Some will see a low prediction as a challenge and attack it.
- Others will see it as a limiter and consider not trying.
- Then we will have people happy to have exceeded that projection.
- While some will lament not measuring up to it.
The possible outcomes are many, and not everyone derives the same motivation (or deterrence) from information like this. As with any piece of data, it can impact us in various ways, and at least part of that is who we are and how we look at info like this.
I do admit to some curiosity and reservations about it on a large scale, but we donāt really know much about it yet to make much of a call yet.
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If the future FTP prediction is accurate and you trust it, then you know you cannot do better. Maybe itās time to stop wasting time and do something more productive. I donāt knowā¦ itās like watching a match where the result is known. There should be en element of unpredictability, a range may be. You should keep that āgrowth mindsetā, you knowā¦
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But what is not āgrowthā about trying to nail every single session and hit that FTP ātargetā? Or trying to hit that target, with the idea that itās step three on your six year plan to your goal FTP.
I see what youāre saying, but I think thereās very few people training consistently that will never see an increase in their goal number 
.
Itās never in vain. Iāve won races when I wasnāt the strongest and lost races where I was amongst the fastest. Youāre forgetting the huge role of tactics, positioning, course, and race dynamics.
Unless itās pretty steep, watts per Cda is king, not watts per kg. And if you stay in the group, position well, and get others to close gaps, you can stay with and beat people who are a lot stronger than you.
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I think you have a good point here - showing it as a range might be better. That way all of us optimistic types can focus on the high end number, work and recover as hard as possible to get there.
Iām sure. At the same time, Iāve personally gone through great measures to model something, only to discover something fairly simple that in retrospect is quite obvious. And my hunch is that the sophistication is needed for cases where things donāt go to plan more than do.
It also seems that the intention is to better tailor training plans. In that case, I think a lot of sophistication is needed - addressing the issue of sustaining progression rather than periods of drops or stagnant fitness.
I think youāre making the same point Iām trying to make. Thereās potentially a lot of sophistication in it if it is modeling your planned outside rides etc
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Iām talking about something else, but I agree with what you are saying here for sure.
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Itās that based on an average response to the survey and assuming hitting every power target?
Genuinely curious, Iām not smart enough to work out how youād work all those things out.
Or, I guess it would just be a fluid thing as would FTP prediction. Plans will be lower level of TSS etc etc until you reach them and they adapt.
Does anyone have an update about this? Has it been mentioned on any of the recent podcasts?
Nothing notable that I have seen or heard lately.
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Still on the roadmap, timeline not concrete. 
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