Now we have Adaptive Training and AI FTP Detection, is it be possible to theorize what my FTP will be in 4 weeks time if i completed all my training with 100% accuracy? The above is just an example scenario. Please excuse me if this has been discussed already, and feel free to point me in that direction.

[image] jjmc: those in rapid states of fitness increase - be it new to structured training or coming off a break. Those are the ones who are more important to predict. If your FTP changes by only a few percent your workouts won’t really change by much but if they change by a large amount it can have a great influence on how you train. Plus a prediction of a large growth can help people who are new better apreciate TR so become long term subscribers and help them figure out the best training load for improvement. (ie. compare the predicted FTP gains for low volume vs mid volume)

Exactly. I’d be super cautious introducing this feature. Or made it available to those who’ll tick a box under a Statement from TR team that the predicted FTP is pure speculation. Otherwise I see a barrage of complaints heading their way…

[image] enki42: Those are the ones who are more important to predict. If your FTP changes by only a few percent your workouts won’t really change by much but if they change by a large amount it can have a great influence on how you train. Plus a prediction of a large growth can help people who are new better apreciate TR so become long term subscribers and help them figure out the best training load for improvement. (ie. compare the predicted FTP gains for low volume vs mid volume) I’m confused by what you’re trying to get here. You do get those changes with a re-assessment every 4-6 weeks. Knowing if you’ll get that much now, which is just really a WAG has no real impact on the training you should do. And a 2-3% difference in intensity is a really big deal. It makes a huge difference in workouts - without AT I’d often start failing workouts coming off a change like that. Guessing what fitness changes will be is irrelevant. What we really want is actually sustained 2-3% growth. Compound that for yourself over a year or two and you’d be extremely happy.

I do not understand, from the podcast I had an impression that FTP estimation feature is already available, but clearly it is not, because today is my ramp test day and it looks like I have to do it because there is no estimation option available. On the other hand, I think Garmin, has already been doing FTP estimation for a few years. Before I started using TrainerRoad, I did my own intervals with Garmin and from time to time it suggested me a new FTP settings.

[image] alex_smallet: FTP estimation feature is already available This is what is available right now: [image] tadatadatada Introducing AI FTP Detection tadatadatada Announcements Hey everyone! AI FTP Detection is now available in Early Access. We know that testing (assessing) can be stressful, and we’ve been hard at work devising a better way. This feature replaces the need to test by using AI to analyze your training progress, previous experience, and many other factors to give you an informed and data-backed FTP. How To Enable AI FTP Detection: Step 1. Log into the TrainerRoad website Step 2. Access Account then Early Access from the navigation menu Step 3. Under …

Oh, is this a different topic? “Future FTP predictions”? I do not think I heard about it even on podcast. Sorry, if I was mistaken.

Right, there are two different things, that I touched on in another topic today. FTP Detection = FTP estimate at the day the tool is used ( now ). FTP Prediction = FTP estimate at some date in the future ( weeks or months ahead ). We have Detection right now, while Prediction is something still in the oven and yet to be offered. And yes, this topic is about the future forecasting, prediction of FTP.

I see, I thought FTP Detection is the Ramp Test. When you use AI it is “FTP Prediction”. Then the difference is called “Prediction Error”. I am sorry I am a Machine Learning Engineer this is the terminology Engineers use. :slight_smile:

You can argue about that term use with TR then :stuck_out_tongue: I am just using the terms they have selected and how they choose to use them (per their published articles and forum info as already referenced).

There definitely appears to be a lot of sophistication behind it. Nate talked about it in the other thread discussing Analytics. It sounds, to me, like it will be using WL V2 and will factor in overall TSS/volume (as scheduled) and will be able to utilise outdoor rides etc etc. I don’t think it’ll be cookie cutter based off of x% per block, but that’s me reading between the lines. Either way it sounds glorious to me. I can see the issues mentioned about failing, but to me it’s hugely motivating.

TrainerRoad

Forecasting future FTP using AT and AI FTP

TrainerRoad Software

mcneese.chad February 21, 2022, 10:37pm 14

This is what is available right now:

Topic		Replies	Views
FTP prediction after training phase TrainerRoad Software	63	6678	May 27, 2025
Another My experience with the new AI TrainerRoad Software	19	859	February 27, 2026
Suggestion for FTP Prediction TrainerRoad Software	40	1254	March 20, 2026
Confused about AI FTP Prediction changing based on a single workout TrainerRoad Software	12	315	April 15, 2026
Coming Soon: See Your Fitness Before You Get There 🤭 Announcements	95	5773	January 12, 2026

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