Thank you for the analysis! I am that same weight, although our age and height are probably a little different (6” and 42 in my case). When I used this calculator, it shows BMR of 1686 calories for me, so very close.
If I take the “little to no exercise” (i.e. we will add in the bike workouts separately), it shows 2,024 calories/day.
“Light exercise 1-3 times per week” comes out to be the 2319 calories which is pretty close to your number. Are you choosing that category due to strength or other “off bike” workouts?
My strength sessions usually record somewhere in the range of 300 calories each, which I do 2x per week, and then the 1 hour walk would be about the same.
The flaw in that analysis may be presuming that “light exercise 1-3 times per week” would require burning that 300 calories each day, but I think that may be overstating it..
Another thing to keep in mind is that Strava/Garmin include BMR calories in their totals to make us feel good..for example I did a 1:45 recovery ride which it said was 154 “Resting” calories and 843 “Active” calories. So only the “Active” calories should be added in?