The other problem is that as soon as you get things up and running in Vietnam, you have to start worrying about him hitting them for some random reason.
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I would say that itās unclear what the impact on specific products will be on either side of the border, although certainly a negative impact, it may not be as bad as the headlines imply. I suspect the industry will be hurt more than individual consumers will.
As for the politics, I think thereās unavoidable politics in your post. And I try to avoid that in this forum. I sure hope it doesnāt impact TR profits/TR pricing as Iām up against a wall as it is and surely not alone in that.
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Itās pretty clear to meā¦
Sec. 3.
(a) The Secretary of Homeland Security shall regularly consult with the Secretary of State, the Attorney General, the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, and the Assistant to the President for Homeland Security on the situation at our northern border. The Secretary of Homeland Security shall inform the President of any circumstances that, in the opinion of the Secretary of Homeland Security, indicate that the Government of Canada has taken adequate steps to alleviate this public health crisis through cooperative enforcement actions. Upon the Presidentās determination of sufficient action to alleviate the crisis, the tariffs described in section 2 of this order shall be removed.
(b) The Secretary of Homeland Security, in coordination with the Secretary of State, the Attorney General, the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, and the Assistant to the President for Homeland Security, shall recommend additional action, if necessary, should the Government of Canada fail to take adequate steps to alleviate the illegal migration and illicit drug crises through cooperative enforcement actions.
I didnāt want this to become a debate, but this such absolute BS. Less than 1% of total fentanyl smuggling comes from Canada to the US. There are more illegal border crossings from US to Canada vs the reverse. In response to the tariff threat, Canada invested $1.5 billion in border security. We did exactly as asked, and still got hit with these devastating tariffs.
Honestly, it makes me absolutely sick to my stomach to see some Americans celebrating this massive betrayal. The US-Canada relationship historically is one of the most special and closest in the world. We took in displaced Americans during 9/11, and then joined and supported the US in Afghanistan. Canadians LITERALLY gave their lives in support of the US, only 20 years ago.
This decision and any support for it is an absolute disgrace.
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Incidentally have you ever heard of the Maginot line? The impenetrable line of fortifications between the french and German border?
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Blockquote
In Fiscal Year 2024, USCBP seized 21,148 pounds of fentanyl at the southwest border, mostly smuggled from Mexico. In contrast, only 43 pounds were intercepted at the northern border. This means that less than 1% of all fentanyl seizures occurred at the U.S.-Canada border.
Blockquote Furthermore, drug flows are not a one-way street. In 2024, the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) seized approximately 10.8 pounds of fentanyl coming into Canadafrom the United States. In comparison, CBSA reported that 17.6 pounds of fentanyl were smuggled from Canada into the U.S.
Not sure how potential deaths per amount of fentanyl is calculated in your statistic, but some numbers for perspective.
Based on your numbers, that 10.8 lbs smuggled into Canada from the US would still be enough to kill several million Canadians. I wonder how many illegal firearms are smuggled from the US to Canada, and how aggressive the economic sanctions should be for that.
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Not my statistics but a direct quote from the executive order
I donāt want to get personal here, but youāre in Holland, right? Iāve lived within 40-60 miles of the US-Canada border for 26 or 27 years out of the past 32ish. We have several dear friends in Montreal that we drive up to visit frequently. The border shooting from two weeks ago (by vegan extremists? weirdly enough) happened about an hour from my house. This is something I know intimately.
The press release you quoted provides no metrics or definition of when the tariffs would theoretically be ended, and there is literally nothing in there that isnāt being done already. The tariffs end when Trump feels like the other countries have suffered and grovelled sufficiently, and only then. So kindly keep your opinions on that side of the Atlantic.
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The whole āhelp stop fentanyl from coming across our bordersā, is ridiculous. How did the āwar on drugsā workout? Cartels will find new ways to get drugs where they need too.
They build tunnels, use boats, use submarines, use drones, you name it theyāll get the product to the US. Itās ridiculous thinking tariffs will stop the fentanyl from coming here. I might be dumb but Iām not as stupid as our president seems to be.
Iāve had friends and family members die from the opioid epidemic all caused impart by greed and misinformation. Sorry for the rant but tracking down the dealers and where they produce these drugs will help stop drugs from coming here. Which is better than having an economic impact these tariffs will cause. Maybe it wonāt be as bad but also maybe worse.
Iām worried about the cost of bike products and how those companies will be impacted. I might order cassettes and chains today before the tariffs hit.
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All that says is it will be enough when Trump and the puppy shooter think itās enough. Hardly an actionable target.
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The tariffs are just a power flex. Tariffs usually do more long term harm than good, but can be effective leverage for short term objectives. I have no idea what those objectives might be. I like to believe there is a coherent plan, but I wouldnāt bet on it. In the near term, some folks will suffer and some will benefit on both sides of the borders. I lived through the China tariffs first hand during Trumpās first term. Highly disruptive to our business and required shifting and diversification of manufacturing locations. It cost a lot of people a bunch of time and $, but ultimately forced companies to be smarter about their supply chains (as did the covid disruptions). Sometimes itās good to shake things up, even when itās extremely painful for a while. Iām not a fan of the current administration (or the former administration), but I am a big fan of forced disruption to elicit change. Everything should be blown up periodically to rethink it. Whether thatās the intent of the administration, I have no idea. But they are blowing stuff up right and left, so hopefully some good comes with the pain.
On the cycling front, I donāt expect it to affect my world in any way worth complaining about. While there are plenty of folks who rely on bikes for transportation and/or staying healthy, Iād bet that most of the members of this forum are buying higher end stuff as a hobby as much as anything. If carbon wheels or electronic shifting gets 25% more expensive, itās dumb pricing on top of dumb pricing for crap that none of us really need. Complaining about the price of high end cycling equipment is like Elon complaining about the price of tires for his jet, itās just slightly different levels of silly. If the tariffs push some cycling companies to reinvent their business or fade away, that can suck but can also make them better. Outside the cycling industry, there will be plenty of real suffering from the tariffs that are much more concerning (food, health care, housing, etc.).
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canada as 51st state, according to latest ramblings
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Ugh. So embarrassing.
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I mean they have literally stated it more than once.
I guess itās āclearly a way out for Canada but that was not the route Trudeau choseā
Completely reasonable.
/s in case that was not abundantly clear.
Politicians mostly use words to push buttons and pull levers, often far removed from any actual agenda. I donāt know, maybe annexing Canada really is the agenda, but I like to believe statements like that are just about pushing buttons. I think the first 2 weeks are a bit of a shock and awe campaign, hopefully setting the stage for some stuff that isnāt quite as crazy. But Iām not holding my breath. Hard not to turn this into a pure political discussion, but back to tariffs - Iād be surprised if these new tariffs are still in place 2 years from now.
And most of the fentanyl is muled by white Americans anyway. But that doesnāt fit into his whole āDEIā BS.
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The tariffs from his first administration are still largely in place.
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Fair enough, but a little bit apples and oranges (at least for canada vs. china). I wouldnāt be totally surprised if they stay in place for Mexico, but Iād take a big wager that the Canada tariffs wonāt hold up. Not saying Iām right, but the Canada tariffs have a much uglier cost/benefit dynamic compared to the China/Mexico stuff. Again, Iām not a fan of any of these broad tariff programs, but there are different levels of bad.
The post was in context of cycling imports into Canada. In that case (additional) tariffs levied by the US against China and Canada donāt affect anything going between China and Canada directly. Existing tariffs on China are there to prevent them from dumping products and undercutting domestic businesses because their labour costs are so low.
Expecting businesses to absorb the cost and taking away from their bottom line is pure fantasy, maybe a percent or two one time but not several times or a big percentage. Expecting the exporting country to eat the cost to gain access to the American market is equally absurd.
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So back to your original post. I totally understand not buying US products, but why punish (ie dont buy from) US companies that donāt support the current administration? I dont know the political stance of TR leadership, but if they are just an innocent bystander and non supporter of the admin, i see no reason not to continue using their product.