Sure….guy who played for Washington back in the day. Became a bike racer and he was an OK Cat 4. Don’t think he ever really progressed from there. Nicest guy in the world though….fookin’ cancer got him about 20 years ago, I think.
On the flip side, Camilo Villegas (pro golfer) is a freaking beast on the bike.
It’s obviously highly likely over inflating his power numbers. I’ve not no idea who he his, but it’s pretty common knowledge that they aren’t consistent from bike to bike.
But, from what others have said about his athletic abilities, I could totally believe he’d have a high FTP on an accurate power meter. 400+ wouldn’t be surprising. A lot of people really underestimate how high FTPs can be. Or at least how high a number some people can put out for up to 20mins.
Intervals has lots of keen amateurs in its database but I assume it’s largely older men included and not many pros/aspiring pros so the top end isn’t really close to the real world top end. Plus pros are focused not only on their weight but also it’s endurance and repeatability that truly sets them apart.
471 watts for 20 minutes at 118 kg puts him at 80th %ile for 35-39 yo males on intervals. If the true power was 80% of the reading, he’d be 50th %ile. As mentioned above, intervals users arent “typical”. So basic question is plausibility of a highly fit, genetically gifted power athlete sustaining power for 20 minutes at a cadence less than 60 rpm that puts him in the 2nd quartile of enthusiastic endurance amateurs of the same age
Thats watts/kg though. I’m not surprised by the watt/kg percentile by a genetic freak trained in another sport.
The raw watts are off the chart though percentile wise I’m sure.
This was my thought. 4w/kg for 20 mins for an elite athlete (regardless of sport) is totally expected. I could do 4w/kg with almost zero endurance sport training coming out of HS when I started to ride after being a HS T&F sprinter. I would imagine a career professional athlete would be much more capable. JJ Watt is a huge
guy, so 460w isn’t that much, relatively speaking
10,374 35-39 males on intervals.
Highest pure watts for 20 minutes is 421, so if the Peloton is accurate Watt’s watts are highest.
At 4 w/kg and 80th percentile, there are 2,075 guys with a higher w/kg. If the peloton is reading 20% too high and he’s really only 377 watts, he’d still be about 95th percentile in pure watts (519 with higher values) at 3.18 w/kg he’d be about 45th percentile (5706 with higher values)
Like you said, it doesn’t seem out of the range of plausibility that a really strong, huge, fit guy going all out at a low cadence for 20 minutes could generate those kind of raw numbers, especially compared to 10,000 much smaller but more aerobically fit guys the same age, but his w/kg, while still better than average, don’t dominate and there are still 2500-5000 in the larger sample with similar or higher values.
Another example of a very common cognitive error, exemplified on another recent thread, of focusing on only on percentiles and distributions and not considering the size of the population–in a sample of 10,000, there are 500 at or above the 95th percentile.
I think some people are lumping “elite athlete” into a catch all category. JJ is a generational athlete, but that doesn’t make him an elite endurance athlete. And in most cases, people who are blessed with elite explosiveness (fast twitch) are not blessed with the genetics to be an elite endurance athlete (slow twitch). That doesn’t mean JJ couldn’t have a very respectable FTP, but people who think that his raw power and explosiveness has a direct correlation to his FTP are somewhat misguided. There are folks out there who can squat 500+lbs who don’t have a 200w FTP. It’s like if someone assumed that Phillipo Ganna should have an elite vertical leap just because he can crank out 460 watts for an hour. The 2 things have very little to do with each other.
So you’re saying the equipment is wrong?
I thought that was a given. Yeah, I know at least some of the peleton bikes are a joke when it comes to estimated wattage. They estimate wattage based on cadence and whatever resistance is set at (which isn’t consistent across bikes). No strain gauge is used, at least on the one’s I’m aware of. It’s like estimating wattage from a dumb “wheel on” trainer. Yeah, it’s better than nothing, but pretty much useless if you are trying to compare it to a standard (or others).
I also think you’re making wild assumptions if you think his 20min Power correlates well with his FTP.
I bet he’s way on the outside of the bell curve and would struggle with using the regular “95%”
The peloton+ has accurate power:
Still, this is a darn impressive set overall. I know that may not be obvious, since I tend to focus on the nuances of where things went wrong – but let me be super crystal clear here: This is more accurate than either the Wattbike ATOM 2020 or Stages SB20 Bike. It’s also on-par with either the Wahoo KICKR Bike or Tacx NEO Smart Bike (though, the Tacx Bike took countless months after launch to fix, the Peloton Bike+ worked out of the gate). Again however, do NOT convey the Bike+ accuracy to the original Peloton Bike (non-Plus).
I would not be shocked in the least if someone who is still over 250lbs (113kgs) and spent 18 years adding muscle mass and fast-twitch fibers which helped him earn millions of dollars could come off the couch at 300w FTP. That’s 2.6 w/kg assuming Mr. Watt lost 38 lbs since his “playing weight.” His genetics and workout history are so off the chart that a pedestrian 2.6w/kg might even be expected after only a month or so of cardiovascular specific training.
But I have no trust in the peloton PM, either.
I know a handful of D1 scholarship American football players. They vary greatly in their body type and physical description but seeing what they could do upclose was absolutely impressive.
Well, it seems to me this whole question comes down to whether putting on 100 lbs of muscle will help your ftp. That’s why I’ve been focusing ln the 470 watts and not the watt/kg.
I was under the impression putting on weight would have no serious impact on ftp…but I’m no expert.
All I’m really focusing on is that he worked out for a living from the time he was 18 through his retirement and has genetics that are quite literally off the chart. Its not surprising that his genetics and workout history translate to a middling or better W/kg very quickly. He did have a heart incident a year ago, too, so its pretty likely that he’s been doing some sort of cardio pretty consistently since then.
As an aside, I propose all Peleton power numbers be referred to as “JJ watts.” I’m at 5.0 JJWatts/Kg.
Exactly, the predictive model for converting 20 minutes to FTP was built on a very, very different population. JJ Watts output all out for 20 minutes doesnt fit the model. “He did 470 watts for 20 minutes” and “Theres no way his FTP is 450” arent mutually exclusive at all
The genetic gift of athleticism carries over to multiple disciplines and sports. You can’t be great at any sport if you lack the stamina required to train and practice at it, even if it has nothing to do with endurance sport.
Wouldn’t be surprised if JJ Watt’s FTP was right around 400w. But it would need to be 500+ for him to be competitive with say, Brennan Wertz.
Didnt Emmett Smith retire and become an extremely unremarkable club cyclist?
No one is saying JJ Watt would make an exceptional cyclist. Just that he can probably put out a massive amount of Watts on an indoor bike.
And only for 20 min…