To answer your question: No, I haven’t filled out the calendar. And today’s ride proves why that shouldn’t matter.
I just completed a 2-hour Xert workout (Innsbruck KOM After Party)
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The Work: 2 hours, 216W NP, Average Power 209W.
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The Physiology: Average Heart Rate 126 bpm (Zone 1/2). Max HR 139.
The Result: immediately after syncing this single ride, the AI prediction bumped from 297W up to 300W.
This confirms exactly what I’ve been saying:
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It’s Not a Plan-Based Model: I didn’t add future workouts. I just did a ride today. The AI didn’t find those 3 watts because my future changed; it found them because the decay timer was interrupted by activity.
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It’s Still Low: Even with the bump to 300W, it’s ignoring that I held 305W for 40 minutes just a few days ago.
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10W Matters: Regarding your much of a muchness comment, a 3.3% difference (297W vs 307W) is the difference between a Threshold interval and a Sweet Spot interval. Precision matters if we are calling this Smart training.
The system is simply reacting to volume, not analyzing the physiological cost (or lack thereof) of the work being done. A 126bpm ride shouldn’t be the thing that saves my FTP; the 300W+ race efforts should have already established it.