It’s almost like predicting physiological response to stimulus is rather difficult. Shocking.
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Unlike sarcasm, which is easy.
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I took a look at your calendar… Between January & February you got in 5 endurance rides, all around an hour. You got in lots of skiing (I’m jealous!) which seemed to keep up some solid fitness and within a few weeks your FTP was back where it was, which is awesome. I think the FTP is staying put currently because you marked some threshold workouts as very hard. (i.e. The Owl +1, which is a 5 min hard start threshold at 95%). That’s not a bad thing… but might tell the system to keep intensity the same and build up the duration of intervals for the next cycle as you continue to build. Don’t know if that’s what is actually happening, but that’s my take on it. You’ve been knocking out some good workouts…I’d keep at it and see where it goes.
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Thanks very much for taking a look and giving me your take. And thank you for the encouragement.
I suspect you are correct in your analysis. I thought it might be the perceived effort rating of Very Hard that was responsible, although I am just trying to be honest with my ratings, and I don’t believe I have ever not completed a workout.
And, as others have said, the most important thing is that the program continues to give me appropriately challenging workouts, which does seem to be the case.
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In this case, I think what you’re seeing is happening because you’re right on that level 3 for Threshold workouts. If those are feeling “very hard,” then your FTP is likely ever so slightly too high.
Your most recent FTP boost was massive, so maybe that was a bit too much… 
Before that, you knocked out level 4.6 and 4.9 threshold workouts as hard and very hard, which was a sign that your FTP was higher than it was, but again, maybe that bump was a bit too much..
Let me know your thoughts..
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Thank you. This makes sense. I am often on the fence between Hard and Very Hard. I usually choose Very Hard, just so I won’t get killed on a subsequent workout.
What does it mean that I am on level 3 for Threshold workouts? Are these numbers relative to me or to my FTP, or are they absolute?
I’m still learning what all the data indicates, so this information is very helpful.
I’d suggest watching the podcast with Nate and Jonathan from when the new AI came out. It’s kind of long, but very informative.
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Level 3 is essentially the starting point or baseline for threshold workouts.
If you’re struggling with level 3 threshold workouts, then your FTP might be a bit high.
If level 3 threshold workouts are easy, then your FTP is a bit low.
If those workouts are in the “hard” range, then your FTP is likely pretty close, and you can start progressing to higher-level workouts.
If we’re unable to progress you out of level 3 workouts, then a slight drop down in FTP would likely be useful. It’s all about getting the most productive workouts in place. 
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Mine has been the other way around. My last prediction had 0 increase and even went into minus, but in the end was higher than my last FTP.
I don’t think it is as straight forward as being overly optomisitic initially and then pulling it back as you progress through the month.
My next prediction is showing another minus, which is discouraging, but hopefully the same thing will happen.
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