7 weeks into a 14 week plan where I had completed every workout to the letter as prescribed, I failed to complete a V02 workout. I had the lungs but not the legs, and bailed out after the 3rd 125% interval when the fatigue in my legs couldn’t turn the cranks. I ranked the effort at max and the reason for failure “intensity” My AI FTP calculation then updated that I would be -2 watts in 30 days.
While I am pretty confident that this result is unlikely to be true if I continue to put in complete the efforts, its demoralizing and demotivating to see the system predict that another month of investment in workouts 4x per week would yield negative results, and on top of having just failed the first workout of my 14 week schedule, it made me rethink my commitment to using TR. (if thats the 30 day result why wouldn’t I just go ride outside and unstructured.)
Rationally I understand its a predictive algo and will change again with more input from workouts from me. Emotionally its a tough pill to swallow at the end of a single failed workout.
I don’t have a solution here, since the alternative is not showing it change and setting folks up for disappointment later in the training cycle but I have rarely had such a “Well F-this”, moment as I did at the end of that session with TR telling me the next month was a waste of my time.
I can completely understand where you’re coming from. Especially early in the window, a single bad workout will impact the model more than the same workout a couple of days before it re-evaluates.
I was inspired by Dylan Johnson’s video that is somewhat related. He shared that over 10 years, he’s gotten a lot fitter (I think he said 70 watt increase in FTP), but that works out to 7 watts a year (nm a month) and 7 watts is within the margin of error. Everything I’ve read points to consistency and volume (that you can recover from) is the key to continued gains
So when I have encountered something similar, I try to reframe and remind myself that:
1/ Ive probably reached the end of noob gains. Any gains I get are going to be slow and won’t necessarily show up right away. So keep plugging and be consistent. It might not show up in one 28 day period
2/. Focus on enjoying the training. State of mind makes a huge difference. I failed a couple of workouts (you can look at my calendar and see). If I thought it was due to motivation, time of day, not having enough sleep - and I thought I was capable - I’d try it again the next day. Regardless I try to remind myself that I really enjoy training, even when I’m gasping during a vo2 effort.
3/ Even if my FTP stays the same, I have so many other gains to get - cornering, race tactics, drafting, pack skills.
4/ I am not my FTP. I’m not going to win by dieseling away from everyone. I’m going to win by not giving up, by getting over the short climb that drops other people, following the wheel that starts the break. So keep training and focus on enjoying everything else.
I can definitely see how that could be demoralizing. It does seem like the prediction can be a bit over reactive for some people. So instead if seeing one bad workout as an anomoly or just a blip it gives a prediction as though that is the new trend for you, that you can’t progress well on V02 workouts, but then once you get back on track it also gets back on course with the new trend and a more realistic prediction.
What I find helpful when I need a confidence boost is to look back at some my older workouts. When I can see that the power level that used to be a hard sweetspot workout is now just an easy endurance ride, or a similar trend, it’s pretty obvious I’m getting faster and that makes me feel good.
The new power records feature could be useful too. It might be worth looking back at the workout you failed, I’ve had some V02 workouts with somewhat big increases in watts so it might be possible the system got a bit too aggressive in pushing you for this workout.
I’ve been finding it really motivating looking at my current plan, and seeing the increases its planning to give me in my power curve. It’s pretty easy this way to see that if you stick with the plan and keep pushing your power up in different parts of your power curve that you will obviouisly be getting faster.
My interpretation is not that your next month has no value and that your FTP will continue to erode despite following the training plan. It’s that the system’s estimation of your current FTP has turned out to be too high, based on the failed workout. So it has adjusted your current FTP downward, so that future workloads will be set appropriately and then you will less likely to fail another one. The reduced current FTP followed by FTP progression through the month then leaves you slightly negative, but only slightly. It’s saying that it can almost get you back to where it thought you were. Perhaps, this is an over-reaction from the system, but failing workouts is also not productive.
I’m about to do my first workout since signing back up earlier this week. I got my intial AIFTP detection which I thought was too high at 260watts, so I did a ramp test on Tuesday which came out at 241watts, after much thought and reading the forum I decided to go with the AIFTP detection, as that’s what I’m paying TR for, to detect my fitness and set workouts.
I’ve set a plan builder to start on Monday and the predicted FTP increase takes me up to 267watts, I’ve added a 45 minute Train Now workout this morning and that prediction has now changed to 273watts. Looking at the workout I really will be surprised if I get through it okay at the wattage it’s set at, but I’m willing to give it a go. I’m very perplexed where these figures are coming from, firstly the AIFTP, seems way to high for myself and secondly a 6 watt increase by adding one 45 minute workout? That seems a bit excessive to me also.
I’m determinded to give the new system a go for the next month (all be it I’ve a couple of audax rides outside of the TR plan) and hopefully I’ll be pleasantly surprised, but I’ve lived in this body for 50+ years now and done a whole load of cycling with it, and I’ll be amazed if the AI numbers are correct.
I’m fully expect a decrease in my AIFTP when the month is up as I expect I’ll struggle with the workouts, and I agree that is demotivating, I’m hoping that at the end of the AI window it will at least have a more accurate understanding of where my fitness actually is and from then I’ll be getting better recommendations.
Edit
After completing the workout this morning, which was Besberri Nord a 2.8 Threshold hard start workout, which I rated as very hard, my predicted FTP has now dropped from this morning’s 273 down to 266watts, which is quite a drop. As I said previously in my post, I’m just going to roll with it the best I can for the next month and then hopefully things will be a little less wild in terms of fluctuations, I was surprised though that I got through every interval, all be it only just, and given that the intervals were only four minutes long, the longer over/unders on my plan should be quite interesting!
If the O/Us do crucify you, don’t be afraid of knocking back that TR FTP number by eg. 10-15W or whatever, to somewhere in the region of where it sounds like you think your “FTP” might be. Maybe those predicted AI FTP numbers are within reach, but it could be that a longer run up to get there is needed; that’s something a few people who’ve faced high predictions have found has worked for them.
are you trying to do these in ERG? if so, first step is to not. additionally, what’s the duration of these intervals? For me, I can say 125% would be beyond what I could do for 3+ min. The following screenshot is a vo2 workout I did recently, I do go into these with a target in mind, and do my best to meet or exceed the target, but it’s also natural for fatigue to build up and not be able to generate the same power across all the intervals. All these intervals were done in the same gearing, and even doing that there’s variation in the output. having to fight against ERG to maintain a level is just a recipe for disaster with these, when the goal is to just keep spinning and working aerobically.
