AI FTP Prediction drop for Ultra rides & raise of suggested training hours

TrainerRoad Software
1

I plan to do a 600km road brevet this coming weekend. I planed it in when I started my plan in fall. Cancelled it about 2 weeks ago and now can do it. What’s strange this is my FTP with normal workouts on the coming weekend:

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and this is if i add in the two ultrarides:

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How can a single weekend kill my predicted gains of 4 weeks?

I am training for those long days anyways.

Also I don’t fully understand why TR upped my training hours massivly this week.

Before my suggested sheldue was:

Mo: Off, Tu: 75’ Intervalls, We: 30’ easy, Th: 60’ Intervalls, Fr: Off, Sa: 90’ Intervalls, Su: long ride

After I clicked check volume yesterday it suggested:

Mo: Off, Tu: 90’ Intervalls, We: 120’ easy, Th: 90’ Intervalls, Fr: 30’ easy, Sa: 120’ Intervalls, Su: long ride

I changed the volume to:

Mo: Off, Tu: 90’ Intervalls, We: 60’ easy, Th: 90’ Intervalls, Fr: off, Sa: 120’ Intervalls, Su: long ride

As this is the most I can fit into my sheldue. I regularly hit check volume in the past, but it only up’ed my plan by 30min or so and not hours… When I played aroung today, it again suggested different volumes:

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Why is this jumping around so much?

My account is public, my TR name is: Gerald am Radl

This are my last weeks.

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Any input is more then welcome!

2

It looks like the main difference between the first check volume you referenced and the last is that the Wednesday rides went from 120 minutes to 30 minutes. Is that right?

Was that brevet on your calendar the entire time? Did anything else change?

3

Thanks for the reply, the 600km Brevet was in there when I first made the programm. Then I deleted it and put it back in later.

I wonder more about the FTP drop. How can two days destroy 4 weeks of work. This seems very off.

4

I think I may have an idea of what’s going on here. I’m going to chat with the team on this one and follow up when I have something concrete to share. :+1:

5

As a fellow ultra rider over the last 2 years, this has played havoc with my FTP predictions , and big drops in FTP that I think are unrealistic. At my age I expect a small drop in FTP each year but not the dramatic falls and rises I see appearing since the new changes.

During the cyclo X season, everything ticks along nicely , my FTP variation is only a few watts.

But what TR doesn’t like is the inconsistency , and periods of recovery, combined with ridiculous hours on the bike. I’ve chosen to keep my FTP from 6 months ago rather than accept the 10w lower FTP TR is giving me. I’m wondering how much the estimate is based on VO2Max efforts. I struggle a bit with the intensity of these sessions, (if legs are slightly tired) whereas sweet spot and threshold I am often finding a bit too easy. The nature of ultra means I’m in z2 and 3 most of the time ,even on steep climbs, so my ability to put out bursts of power is much reduced.

Most (trained/coached) ultra athletes include interval training in their schedule , but with more emphasis on long rides, often doing back to back long days of 8-12 hours or so.

At 70 + the recovery from these is a lot longer than for a 30 year old.

I’m still not sure what plan to use, maybe the Gran Fondo, though I am now on a custom plan with an A race as the goal.

6

Thank you for your reply Lydia. Good to see that this not only affects me. The FTP drop was there for shorter rides, 200/300km as well, let’s see how the AI works with my A events 1k km end of june and 500km end of july.

I am quite unsure about if TR is right for ultra training, I use a grand fondo plan and add the multiday events as stage races. What I am concerned about is, TR doesn’t seem to taper me for those big rides. I do like the overall training TR prescribes me as I am time crunched most of the year. I just try to get about one weekend per month for ultra stuff. Generally TR made me faster.

I think if my FTP is really dropping after the 600km brevet this weekend, I might just keep my old number or punch something manual in like 310 watts, so inbetween the AI predinction with/without the ride. Althrough I still think this is a bug. I recover quite well after these long rides and can normaly continue with my tuesday intervalls, when I did an allday ride on saturday.

7

There are also many workouts without a post ride survey response. The TRai uses these to make its predictions not just your physiological data.

8

Yes, these were not workouts, commuting and padeling around with my son, so all easy. I rated them for all of may and april. No influance on my AI FTP.

9

I’d be happy to take a closer look at your training history to see what I might be able to find.

Let me know if you’d like that and if I can share some of your training details in my response here in this thread. :+1:

10

Eddie could you look at my history. I did the planed rides now. Finished an intervall session today, maybe not the best idea since i couldn’t move yesterday, but felt good today. Now my FTP is due to drop tomorrow after a full month of training and with no missed intervall sessions. This is not motivating.

Feel free to share your findings, my account is set on public.

11

I’m taking a look now. :eyes:

How did you land on that specific workout today?

12

Basically as expected, I shouldn’t have done a Hard Intervall sesh after an ultra Weekend… but still I don’t get how ultra rides completly destroy AIFTP gains.

13

Yeah, I ride ultra distance / duration and include weekly back to back long rides. I schedule my VO2 max intervals after a rest day, and before my back to back long rides. Thus as fresh as possible for my VO2 max session. Do not know if this is a possibility for you?

14

So that workout was prescribed to you on your calendar, and you just loaded it up and completed it? I’m just confirming..

15

Yes. Well it was a yellow day, this workout was prescribed after i said i don‘t want to take it easy.

16

I have the exact same situation. FTP was 326 before my ultra and it’s predicted to drop to 308 tomorrow. At least the prediction is stable before and after the ultra but it’s still kind of unbelievable. For reference, it was 2.5 days riding of like 700km.

17

I’ve shared your case in the same place as @Gerald_am_Radl’s, so that we can look at these together. I’ll follow up when I know more.