That could make sense.
That’s a great point too. +/- 1 is well within any margin for error anyway.
I think that’s probably the main reason the AI FTP is so disheartening. There’s no explanation, so it just drops based on “factors.” There’s no guidance as to why it went down so no real way to gauge how you can prevent this from happening.
I experienced this yesterday. I had three AI workouts generated for this week and it had an FTP increase predicted. I did the workout, it was harder than expected and all of a sudden, the FTP increase moves to a 1w drop, even though the AI “knew” it was going to be hard. According to that AI, I would have been better off not even doing a workout, but I know that’s not right. I benefited from that workout. So now the next two workouts have moved down in intensity and I don’t know if the FTP increase will come back.
But it’s that day-to-day fluctuation that really is demoralizing when you know you’ve trained hard and there’s no real answer other than “Well, it’s a black box that looks at your HR and how you rate workouts.” I mean, okay, that’s fine, but so what? It doesn’t tell me that it thought my HR was X amount out of zone or anything like that. So what are we actually supposed to take away from it? Too bad, try again another day? Frustrating.
Yes, exactly this. It’s a tool, but it doesn’t explain itself. Also, what is hard and very hard 
. I know there is a guideline like, could you do another set of intervals or not. Today I was like, probably… but also probably not. There is no way of knowing, so i opted for very hard.
Keep on training and not the prediction!
It’s a beta tool. Fine for playing around and understanding how it’s reacting.
I love the feature, reinforces everything i already knew but gives you that up front. Stacking lots of volume is not always the answer, the hard group ride impacts future results, protect your key workouts, 1 hour hard workouts is sometimes enough.
I’ve seen none of the flaky behaviour described in threads, ita consistent and logical / motivating.
Failing a workout is a big red flag for me and missing key workouts I’d expect it to plummet.
But my starting point was low and i’d great gains in the last 3 months. If I was seeing things drop I’d probably just hide it.
OK seriously!
Did another over/under today, felt great, but lost concentration and had to backpedal for 10s twice before the last over. So I did 9 overs perfect, then backpedaled twice in the last under, then completed the last over and the rest of the tempo part. Now I’m -1w gain over the last 3 weeks. What a joke!
I had an ai ftp coming up and skipped one workout right before because of life. Current FTP was 240. The projection was for 245 if I remember correctly. Skipped one workout, new projection was 237. It just seems silly. One missed workout isn’t changing anything unless you start making a habit of skipping workouts.
If I had to take a backpedal on that workout I wouldn’t want my FTP to go up, that’d be a recipe for future failure. Unless this was a weird one-off failure due to sleep/nutrition/heat/stress etc.
It seems like AI responded appropriately to me. Are you saying you’d expect an increase in FTP after this workout?
That’s not really a fair representation. First of all it’s only been two weeks and your current prediction is not for what your FTP is today, but what it will be after the next two weeks. In those two weeks you have only planned two workouts.
Secondly, you’re doing threshold workouts at a level three and rating them very hard. How much harder do you really want the workouts to be?
I’m mostly just impressed that you’re still over 300 watts given your training so far in 2026. 
I think you’d benefit from going back to Jan 1st and going through it, as if you were, say, your coach.
If I had to take two breaks during an interval I probably would have assigned “maximum effort” but that’s me. Your FTP basically didn’t change and giving you another go at it. As a coach if I saw an athlete struggled in the last interval I’ wouldn’t make the next one harder. What about the 1 watt prediction drop are you disappointed with?
I am definitely also in the Failed Workout = automatic Max Effort rating camp.
Put me in the surprised it wasn’t more than 1w camp
Yes, it is. Keep in mind that the FTP projections are based upon the successful completion of all prescribed workouts, and at the expected RPE. If you miss even one, that should, and will, affect the projection.
…and even completing at the expected RPE is no guarantee! My endurance+ workout today went great, I completed it easily and rated it Easy. Minus one point on tomorrow’s prediction. (Probably the heart rate which was tracking a little high.)
There’s a lot more going on than a mere expectation of you “completing” the workouts.
Obviously it affects the projection, but in reality my fitness is not going to be that different from one missed workout when I’ve done every single other workout as prescribed. It just shows how useless the projections are.
What about the 1w drop? Why do the workout then. Why did AI think I could do it? Why would AI think I could gain 10w in 3 weeks and then 2 weeks later lower it to -1. Obviously the prediction is not working.
I wouldn’t worry about the 1 watt… that is in the “no change” category for me personally. The projection was changed when you struggled and thus intensity of workouts was kept the same. It tells AI (and a human coach for that matter) that you might not be ready to bump up intensity yet. If you crushed the next workout maybe.
But that doesn’t mean you aren’t getting better. Why do the workout then? Maybe the next workout will add more time at the same wattage. Or maybe keep it the same but you get through and at a lower RPE. Or maybe with some more sleep you crush it and it gives your body a bit of recovery.
Oke… I’m done…..
Am on a 8 weeks FTP plan. Followed it almost 100% maybe 95%. Started at ftp 255 ended (prediction tomorrow) at 253. 
…
I’ve also did a calendar test and when I for a Sunday ride put e.g. a 3 hours ride in the agenda instead of the 1:30 prescribed, my ftp prediction goes up. So why is TR not suggesting this ride?
As said, I’m done. When my subscription end, I’m done and gone. sorry… I Love TR, like the team, like the very informative podcast… only green lights, but my goal is to get better (as the slogan offers).
If there are arguments, I’m always open for it…
Jan