Love the AI FTP detection but wonder if it’s initially optimistic 28 days out and then converges to a more realistic number? I had a 239 estimate which landed on 222 (though this was when I first joined, so based on limited data). I now have a 241 forecast (currently 222 FTP) which would be another chunky improvement. I love the innovation though and it’s great to have something which reacts to each workout. One suggested improvement - a fuelling strategy for each session e.g. x grams of carb to be consumed on bike.

My experience with the AIFTP prediction has been that it seems to be fairly accurate (=matches the eventual AIFTP detection) as long as I am able to complete all the workouts that were initially scheduled for the following 4 week period as intended and I rate each workout in accordance with the most likely post-workout survey answer expected by the AI. (The model may also do some extrapolation based on HR which may impact the outcome but this is just my suspicion.) However, the prediction seems very sensitive to any deviation from the AI expectations particularly during weeks 1 and 2 as these often have a cascading effect on the following weeks and can lead to a significantly different outcome at the end of the 4 week period. I agree with you that the AIFTP prediction seems by definition optimistic as in order to achieve it everything has to go as the AI expected it to go (whatever this includes).

I don’t think anyone really knows how it works. Lots of observations but no real conclusions. We know, not following the plan exactly, reduces the prediction in most cases. I look at it but don’t take the numbers it produces as something set in stone. Example: during a build block I missed a short 30 min sustained workout. The next day AI had predicted a 9 watt increase in 28 days. The day before that workout it predicted a 4 watt increase. I had to laugh. :person_shrugging:

I’m not doing any of my workouts outside. I’m aware of the bug. All my workouts are strictly done on the trainer.

Then it may be something else. I can take a look at your account and post relevant things from your Calendar here with your permission. [image] Updated Forum Guidelines Announcements Hey all, We’ve made some recent changes to our forum guidelines around how we work through athlete cases in public threads. Below is what we’ve added, and also here’s a link to where this lives on our forum for reference. Posting About Your TrainerRoad Account From time to time, athletes post about their training plans, adaptations, or other aspects of their TrainerRoad experience. We love that! But context is everything. Without it, it’s really hard for anyone to give you a helpful answer, …

It honestly doesn’t really matter all that much to me, but if you think it would be helpful for others you are more than welcome to post my Calendar here. For my part I’ve just learned to ignore the FTP Predictions since they are simply not reliable in my experience.

[image] TKilian: but if you think it would be helpful for others you are more than welcome to post my Calendar here. Let’s see it :slight_smile:

On a side note RIP Tacx Neo, sorry for your lost, it looks like the trainer had a good run. I had my Kickr since 2020 and I have a feeling it close to giving up the ghost :headstone:

[image] Caro.Gomez-Villafane: While you may be completing your Interval Workouts Indoors, you are completing your Solo Rides rides Outside, and these are part of your training plan. Is the outdoor bug not only for outdoor workouts but also outdoor unstructured rides?

Is the argument here that once a person does ANY rides outdoors the FTP Prediction is not reliable because of your outdoor bug? I was told this only applies to workouts and it would be a strange argument to make that any outdoor riding makes it ok that the FTP Prediction gets reduced directly after a completed indoor workout So? This was planned in before, so the Ai was completely aware of it at the start of the month. And as I said: the point here was that the prediction got lowered several times after properly completed workouts indoors. The week I was away for business didn’t come into effect on this at all. Yes of course I change workouts. I adapt to my life and make sure that I move a workout from one day to another when needed, always checking for the impact on the Ai Prediction. Again I don’t think you are making a coherent argument here. I have not deleted any workouts or reduced them. And with every change I made sure that the Ai Prediction stayed the same or increased. I actually put quite a bit of effort into my training calendar management See 3 This is my main problem currently in this forum. A person makes a valid point, in this case: Even perfectly executed workouts can lead to an immediate reduction in Predicted FTP, even at the very end of the month. And the response has nothing to do with the actual point but tries to excuse it with things that don’t matter. As I outlined above: any change I make still keeps the overall structure, keeps the workouts and ensures that I maintain the prescribed intensity. And with every change I have to make I also double check the potential impact on the predicted FTP and adjust if there’s a drop.

How do you know about that? :sweat_smile: Did I post in here about it somewhere? And thanks for your condolences :grin: My new Tacx Neo 2T has taken over and is so far doing a fantastic job! Hope your Kickr still has a few years in him :flexed_biceps:

AI FTP initially optimistic?

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Caro.Gomez-Villafane September 7, 2026, 2:05pm 7

Then it may be something else. I can take a look at your account and post relevant things from your Calendar here with your permission.

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AI FTP initially optimistic?

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