I think it’s probably going to be 295 as a starting FTP, with the plan being to start with a VO2 block before switching to Threshold and TTE work, all while starting to layer in as many longer endurance rides and volume as I can handle while still recovering.
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yeah
value you use to get the right training intervals
doesn’t need to be the same as what you use to pace a long long race
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eFTP (if is on its default length particularly) is dominated by a short max effort. If you have a strong MAP power its likely it’ll overestimate on the other hand if you are never doing short max efforts (perhaps pacing your self for a longer effort which ultimately sees you faster), it’ll underestimate. I’d discount it
With your 20min power did you have an all out blast before hand, if you did it looks like the WK05 figure (295w) is near the mark but if you didn’t it looks like AI FTP (291w) is nearer the mark. There’s practically no difference (1%) between them, which gives me faith that your actual FTP will lie somewhere about them (291-295w). I’d use AI FTP for simplicity and trust the system/ process but if you choose WK05 (or something in-between) it won’t make much difference, just be consistent in what ever method you use for future FTP adjustments. Good luck 
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+1
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Just checked, looks like eFTP Min Duration in intervals.icu is 300s. How the testing was done:
Day 1: 5 Minute
Day 2: 1 Minute
Day 3: Rest
Day 4: 20 Minute
Day 5: Sprints
For each test there was a 20 minute warm up that ramped me up into VO2 Max range. It wasn’t what I’d call “all out” or real draining but wasn’t easy and then followed by a 4-5 min recovery interval before doing the test. After the test was a ~45-60 min endurance block.
Pretty comfortable I’m right in the ballpark and have a good benchmark for the upcoming training block. Biggest challenge I have is hoping for good weather so I don’t have to start doing 4+ hour rides on the trainer!
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I seem to be an outlier and AI FTP detection is over-rating my FTP by ~ 20 Watts or 10% compared to my 20-minute FTP test results. I’ve just finished 12 weeks of low-volume training on trainerroad, with most workouts on my trainer. Threshold and even sweet spot workouts have always been very challenging for me (often sweet spot pushes my heart rate to 90-95% of max heart rate depending on the workout), whereas VO2 max workouts have been relatively easy. My VO2 max progression level is 4.8, compared to 2.3 for threshold (I know you’re not supposed to compare levels, but just to give you an idea). On Saturday I failed Three Sisters (3 9 minute over-unders)–I was very well prepared and it absolutely crushed me and I couldn’t sustain the power targets. I’ve also failed Asta not that long ago. Today I buckled down and did a 20-minute FTP test and got an FTP of 212, whereas I’ve been training with an AI FTP of 230 for the last several weeks. I re-ran AI FTP with all of this data (including the 20-minute test) today and it tells me my FTP is 234, so 22 Watts (10.3%) higher than the FTP test I just did. Honestly, I believe the 212 number much more than anything else, and I plan on using that moving forward. I wish I could just use AI FTP, but for me, it seems way off. I’m guessing I’m more of an anaerobic athlete and have poor fractional utlization (my ramp test from 12 weeks ago was 225 watts and I know I’ve gotten faster since then). Anyone have suggestions for an athlete like me? Should I just stick to 20-minute FTP tests moving forward? Also, to improve fractional utilization, should I focus my training on more base, sweet spot and threshold, or is it still good to do VO2 max workouts? For context, I’m training for leadville 2024, I’ve been riding casually for a few years and am new to structured training with 5-6 hours per week available to train (sometimes longer). Thanks for reading this far and any thoughts!
AI has got more faith in you. Ignore HR altogether and see how you get on.
Thanks for your thoughts. I do normally ignore heart rate during workouts (I set it so I can’t see it during rides), but I feel like AI has overestimated my FTP and I’ve hit a ceiling and unrealistic power zone numbers.
There are lots of other comments in other threads about AI FTP and Ramp Test overestimation, you’re not alone. It’s the reason there’s tons of talk about the Kolie Moore test.
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Try a 4x10 threshold workout at 100% like Lamarck or even Mount Baldy +1, if you can do those without it feeling all out. Your ftp should be close to accurate, just my opinion of a way to test new FTPs.
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So my partner did the ramp test when she first started TR in January and she struggled to begin with but the adaptive training and me helping her select slightly easier and also shorter work outs just about did the trick. She added about 15% to her FTP in 5months, doing ramp tests each time rather than FTP detection but when she scored her highest FTP she got to the point where even work outs just over 1.0 progression for threshold were too hard. But it was a hard sell for me telling her we should manually reduce it based on what she had actually achieved for longer intervals.
On the flip side, when I first started TR a couple of years or so ago, I did a ramp test and it underestimated my FTP by about 10-15%, since it recommended a number which I had already been doing about 10% higher for an hour in the weeks leading up to the ramp test.
Probably like the other comments, if you have better evidence of what your FTP should be, then adjust your FTP to suit. Actual 1hour power (or thereabouts, not going to get into that discussion 
) is a much better figure to use than some estimated figure. Always better to train a little low, than to train too high. Failing workouts is never motivating. Once you’re on the bike, most of the time it should just be a case of churning it out. You shouldn’t need to be perfectly prepared, fully psyched up and with a good dose of luck to get to the end of a session. It’s just not sustainable mentally, regardless of it probably not hitting the right energy systems.
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Thanks @mtbtomo! I already know all of this, I just needed the re-assurance and I agree 100% At this point, I’d rather have a lower FTP and take the hit to my ego, but feel like the workouts suit me. And since I’m more worried about longer sustained efforts, I want to make sure my FTP reflects my capabilities for those kinds of workouts. I agree, it’s very de-motivating to fail a workout I “should” be able to complete because my FTP is set too high.
Absolutely! I did probably 7 or 8 years with a coach before TR and each winter it didn’t really seem to matter what watts I was doing to push the needle out (i.e. to extend duration at a particular power). The performance improvement come spring/summer was fairly similar each year. In fact, I actually got my best ever FTP after doing a winter training more usually at tempo than at sweet spot or threshold.
Trust your own evidence and be consistent regardless of estimated numbers! 
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