You’d have to ask Nate Pearson, the CEO of TR who made those reports.
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That’s me at 49years fallen out of the 4w/kg zone. I was hovering just at it before Christmas but over Christmas I put on 1kg and the AI FTP increased by only 1w (which I never accepted).
Ok, thanks. But where did you find this one ? Maybe I can see the ones already made ?
I’ll be 50 in 5 months (yikes), and I’ve been above 4 w/kg for as long as I can remember. In peak shape, I’ll likely top out at 4.5 this year, but 5w/kg is no longer achievable. Genetics plays such a big role getting there, but I also put in the hours very consistently and keep my weight decent, but not super lean.
Edit: the crazy thing is I’m rarely the strongest guy in the group around my age and older. So many crazy fit masters in my area. A lot of the motivation to stay fit, is to just keep up with friends and be able to smash when you have the desire.
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There’s another topic where Nate posted all that data and charts. I’d suggest the search function to hunt it down.
I’m 44, male, & raced for a year or so as a late-teen but got out of the habit & just commuted. I never really stopped riding but certainly never trained properly. A few years ago I decided to spend my midlife crisis seeing if I could get as fit on a bike as when I was 18. So in April 2023 I signed up with TR, made some noob gains over the next six months, & since then I’ve been hovering around 4w/kg according to TR’s AIFTP. I know I’ve left some gains on the table, mostly consistency-related because life got in the way a few times since then. But I’ve accepted that life will tend to get in the way & further advancements will probably depend upon how much of those parts of my life I’m willing to sacrifice, or plan for better. Being childless is working in my favor: more time to myself (including sleep, well, if the aftermath of shiftwork doesn’t have its way with me), & less exposure to communicable diseases. So I’d say I’m underperforming, & don’t know where my genetic ceiling is, but I’m pretty close to the ceiling imposed by my life at the moment.
Scott MacLean talks a lot of sense in this youtube video:
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50 1/2 yr old here, hovering around 4.5w/kg. I think it’s more work ethic than genetics. I do about 10-12hrs a week of unstructured riding. I do what I feel like doing. If I haven’t done threshold or VO2 for a while I’ll throw some of those in. Nutrition is mainly based around chocolate.
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That’s what everyone with good genetics says. If you’re over 4.0 w/kg genetics or not you need to work hard and be consistent. However, it’s not uncommon for people who work hard to believe they’re results are mainly due to their work ethic, while discarding natural ability.
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If you are hitting 4W/kg in your 40s, you would have like hit 5W/kg in your 20s.
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Oh, now you tell me. Where were you 25 years ago?
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Cycling ability is basically all genetics, sure you have to put in the training to realize your potential but a large % of people will never reach 4.5/5w/kg no matter what they do whereas others can hop on the bike and hit those numbers in a few months of just riding.
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I gave up on Scott. Too much word salad. 60+ minutes of him chit chatting and maybe 10 minutes of usable content.
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I’m about 6 months behind you with a similar w/kg on similar hours and been unstructured for years. So…I can confidently say, there is a lot of genetic advantage at play for us based on riding with others for years and seeing what they put into it and the results they get.
In my mid 30s, without a running background, I was able to run a low 16min 5k, and not putting in big miles compared to other runners who had run for years - looking back now, there is def a genetic advantage. It doesn’t feel like it at the time, but that’s the bias talking…
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Yeah, if you’re 50 years old, riding unstructured, with a 4.5 w/kg that is about as clear of an example I can think of that genetics plays a major role.
I’m 42 and do 10-15 hours per week structured, never (and I mean never) miss a workout and I cannot get past peaking at 3.7 w/kg every year. Like clockwork.
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Fast people always think this. Scroll up and look at the graph. You are in the top few percent of riders at your age.
Thank your parents for your VO2max!
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Im 6’6” and currently my ftp is 240, I hope to be at about 300 at the end of this season at a little less than 100kg. 4w/kg seems hard for larger guys, no?
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Funny you say that about genetics, I’m in my mid 30s and have basically been in between 4-4.8 w/kg since I started riding with a power meter in my 20s. I don’t put in a whole lot of time compared to many of you, so I’m perfectly fine with this plateau.
The thing is though, at no point have I ever been noticeably faster than my dad who is 25 years older than me. He does no structure, but does probably 3-4 hours more than me per week. He doesn’t have a power meter, but given my numbers, he’s gotta be in the 4s as well.
I’m just hoping this is a sign, that as long as I stay consistent, that I probably won’t have a huge power fall off as I get older.
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Agree 100%. Genetics has to have a massive effect on your ceiling. I know TR is a business so they can’t very well respond to podcast questions of “why am I stuck at x W/kg” with “you picked the wrong parents.” But, I do wish they would at least throw in the possibility when offering changes in volume, structure and diet.
Let’s face it, if there were no ceiling, we could all reach the W/kg of a sled dog.
Anecdotally, I’ve had a few teammates join my (mostly masters) race team and just destroy everyone with just a few months of hard group rides, no structure. Then we find out they were a D1 rower or swimmer in college but got married, had kids and weren’t training. But they didn’t lose the genes that got them a huge engine in their 20s.
+60W would be a 25% bump in FTP. May be a tall order for a single season. Certainly achievable especially if you’ve been there before (even in another sport).
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Even if you stop, and sit on your butt for a few years, it comes back fast.
I knew an ex-pro and former Olympian who retired, got fat at a desk job for years, and then later decided to ride and race again. Within six months he was soloing off the front of very competitive masters 1-2-3 fields and easily winning any local race he entered. He quickly got bored of beating up on amateurs and retired again. 
I ride with an ex-domestic pro. He is so frustrating. I ride more than him. I’m way more consistent, and do structured training. He slacks off all winter, and does a 30-40 minute Zwift a couple of times a week. In the spring, he does a few big rides and hard group rides and his fitness blooms magically and he’s crushing me all summer.
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