I think I have been about 280w before (according to stravas power curve estimate) I think if I can be consistent for the whole year I have a shot. Getting to 4.0w/kg just doesn’t seem realistic to me
Funny timing, I went on a ride today and held 285w for 20min, and it was outside with a different power meter than my trainer but I’m at least making progress towards the goal 
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Really depends how much work you’ve been putting in to get to that 240. For a new rider putting down 240, getting to 300 a year later might not be totally unreasonable. If you’ve been doing 10-15 hrs of structured training for years, probably not practical.
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I struggle with long term consistency, I can usually go 3-4 months and be pretty consistent but life often gets in the way, right now I’m at about 4 months of consistent base training and starting to see pretty good results, yesterday I actually had some all time power PRs so I’m pretty excited about what is gomcome
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I wonder if there are any cases of people training hard for 10 years at like 3 w/kg that have made it to 4. I’m thinking no but I’d love it to be yes!
Joe
If they went from lower to higher volume I would not be surprised at all.
Just for discussion say they were at 8-12 hours per week for many years then early retired or for some other reason could train pretty much any amount.
Joe
I don’t know if most people would consider 12hr a week to be low volume.
I was thinking more of the <8 hr a week rider moving to a 15+ hr a week plan not someone starting at what most people would consider to be an already pretty large volume for your average athlete.
I think even a moderate amount of proper training when young has a big effect on performance later in life.
I cycled fairly seriously from ages 13-16. Ten mile TTs. Did about 160km/week in winter and 240km a week in summer.
I then barely touched a bike until 38. Just over three years and 45,000km later, intervals puts my FTP at 420-435w (at 102kg) though my anaerobic capacity skews that a touch as I’m strong on shorter climbs, and my tested hour FTP on a steady paced climb is about 390w.
So yes, you can get to 4w/kg, but I think a lot depends on your training history.
My plan now is continue training as is (about 13hr/week on average) and drop my body weight to 95kg to get to 4.5w/kg
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I started cycling in my mid 30’s in 2016. Within a winter, I was above 3 and I hoped to achieve 4w/kg in the next year or two. It was much much longer.
I finally did it earlier this year, basically after 9 years. (I went above 4w/kg for about 50 minutes and felt I had more in the tank if I wanted to go the full hour) I never could train more than 7-8 hours per week and I’d say that I was probably closer to 4 or 5 hrs per week in many of the years, using TR. Over the last winter to now, it’s about 6-7 hrs per week.
I can’t say for sure what pushed me over the edge, but I had been hovering at 3.8 or so for multiple years, so I did work out a bit more, and lose a bit of weight (2 kgs).
Over the years I got tired of TR workouts, so now I do a good deal of Zwift racing, mixed with Z2 rides. Essentially, I don’t have structured workouts right now. I had been using XERT workouts for the winter to spring, which I mostly don’t mind, during this final jump to 4 but I’m not sure how influential they were on the jump.
What I do now feels mentally and physically sustainable, and I’ll have to see if my power maintains or improves even without this set structure.
I do think that this last year, I’ve been very consistent, only taking time off if I needed it for recovery or mental, but nothing longer than a week. As I type this however, I am about to leave for a 2 week business trip.
Perhaps it’s arguable if I’m still at 4w/kg now as I haven’t done a longer test since the spring, but my race results in Zwift are easily the strongest they’ve ever been.
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I’m right at the end of your window (49) but I’m 4+ w/kg at the moment and I’m sure you can too with work.
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I sure like stories like this!
Joe
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Thanks! I have been following this thread since its inception 5 years ago hoping to share a success story.
I’m 46 years old now and got to 4 w/kg after 2-3 years of structured training. Prior to that, I still rode quite a bit and was already pretty fit. I plateaued around a 4 w/kg peak during the summer for a few years and was convinced that was my genetic capability but over the past few months, increased weekly volume up from ~12hrs to ~16 hrs and simultaneously dropped a few lbs and am now sitting about 4.4 w/kg and feel like I have a higher ceiling if I could find a way to add a couple more hrs/wk.
I have also been extremely consistent this season as I’m racing Leadville for the first time and want to go there at my absolute best so skipped some local races that I’d normally do in order to maintain my training plan. I’ve found it takes me too long to recover from a race that I can’t build fitness while racing.
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Same age here at 3.86, based on AIFTP. I’m only on about 7 hours and I could lose 5lbs without even the slightest risk of performance loss (extra weight). Training and racing fairly seriously for at least 15 years.
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For what it’s worth, read my comments from 5 years ago, when I just started “training”
I got to 300FTP / 4w/kg pretty in about 6 monhts on a LV plan + some additional rides, and I -thought- 5w/kg would be possible on more volume..
my w/kg has not really increased a lot, FTP, weight all remained pretty much constant the passed 5 years (FTP between 290-310). Generally ride -at least- 2 times a week now, but often 3 or 4 and since the kids are older, morre time to ride, so my avg volume has increased quite a bit. (from 4-5 hours a week to 6-10 (6 in off season, 10 when the weather is good or motivated for a race).
This volume increase does not really show in FTP / W/Kg, but it has really shown in my A race results over the past years (90K MTB marathon).
In percentage of finish position of the total (e.g. most recent 13th out of 83 age group = top16%):
2019 32% overall, 23% Masters 2 (40-50) (shorter distance, different field, more beginners, not comparable to the others)
2023 27% overall, 30% M2
2024 30% overall, 23%M2
2025 21% overall, 16% M2
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