Great news if you ever crash! 
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Thatās a really interesting point you make at the end. Iāve been that guy, and my first thought was āI wasnāt regularly winning racesā, but then I really thought about the teammates and thirst part. You can have the fitness, but you need that belief in yourself and from teammates and itās crazy the difference that can make.
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Iām 45 and according to Xert, Iām at 4.45 today (using actual estimated 1 hour power). Thatās probably pretty close. Itād be hard, but in an event, fully rested, steady effort, yeah.
Especially with Covid, Iāve been riding more than ever in the last 18 months, and I can almost tolerate -and enjoy- more endurance miles than ever after 10 or 15 years of riding and then riding/racing. As others have said Iāve probably slipped on my ability to handle harder days repeatedly.
Iāve put up PB or close to PB 5 and 10 minute numbers this year, so I guess Iād say Iām sort of waiting for the other shoe to drop on when Iāll start to decline. Thinking about that has been something thatās been a bit depressing lately and almost like a dark cloud, even though Iām really fit now. How do you all sort of tune out that inevitable decline on the horizon?
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District yourself with a new bikeā¦oh wait, I see you already did that 
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Currently 4.9 w/kg at 43.
When I drop a kilo or two for racing Iāll probably hit 5 again this year. Thatās a 20min test number as thatās what Iāve done for years and itās a better match for my racing in my view compared to a ramp test.
Thatās road bike numbers. My TT position (I mostly Race LD Tri / TT) is pretty aggressive and I do lose 20-30 watts.
I think Iāve probably plateaued now and itāll be all about hanging onto as much power as I can over coming years. But Iāve done a lot of work on my TT position as well and probably got more speed out of that in recent years than any power increase.
I had a big gain a couple of years ago (about 10%) when a foot injury stopped me running for nearly 9 months and I focused on the bike. Back to tri again but COVID zwift Racing this year has seemingly helped hold onto similar power.
How to get there? Do the hard sessions HARD. However you choose to do them you have to go deep.
That means going easy pretty much the rest of the time. It always amazes me when people say they struggle to ride easy. If youāre doing the hard stuff properly it feels (to me anyway) like there isnāt any choice! A nice z2 ride is about all i can manage the day after a workout.
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Yes, itās come in handy a few times 
Iād say donāt look for it but expect it to come sooner or later. Iām working on being thankful for the fact that I can pedal a bike and that my family is supportive of it. Iām also regularly reminding myself that seasons change and, while I love it, riding bikes is not my life.
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You could likely greatly benefit from some mindfulness training.
2 kids under 10 here. Key for me has been indoor training and the ability to get a legit ride in anytime. No way could I maintain the fitness I have if I was trying to figure out ways to schedule outside rides with my crazy life.
I bought the OG Kickr back in 2014 when my first kid was only 3. At the time I thought it was crazy to spend that much on a trainer. Fast fwd to now and Itās literally been the best investment I have ever made in cycling. Iād be a coach potato without it.
I feel you. I get my fair share of āhow can you ride on the trainer that much?ā. Consistency amongst the chaos of life is the biggest reason why I count on trainer rides to keep me fit. Even during the warmer sun-drenched months. 1K for an aparatus that keeps me in the basement is one of the best post-kid investments Iāve made in myself (side note: having this outlet has made me a better dad and husband so Iāll count those points in the win column as well).
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Iām a bit under 4 w/kg and turn 39 next year.
Iām a larger rider and could probably stand to lose 10kg, which would shoot me well above 4. But my excuses are that I donāt want to lose weight at the expense of a single watt, and my fat dog is a bad influence on me. But I digress.
Itās largely genetic.
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40 yrs old and currently at 4.3 w/kg. Iāve got about 17 years of cycling in the legs already and Iāve always been thin so Iām sure that helps but I find the challenge in my current stage of life is not my physical ability but rather the ability to consistently train/ride. (got 2 kids under 4 etc.).
Anecdotally, my local cycling group has several riders who are older than me and can drop me on a hill so I donāt see age as the limiting factor (not yet anyway).
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Re declining, I find the best way is to tackle head on and fight it 
. Iāll be 50 in November and my numbers are not yet declining (admittedly Iāve only had a PM for 6 or 7 years).
With same volume I hit the same peak numbers although Iām always look for other ways to improve (diet, strength, recovery et ) and I when I find time to ride more I still see improvements in TTE, power on Z2 rides etcā¦so reasons to be optimistic
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Iām 54 and usually hit just below to just over 4w/kg when following mid volume Ironman plan. I have trouble keeping my weight up, tho, so that probably helps (pure climberās build). I also do a lot of core training (follow Danielsonās book, which is very well written) and do what strength training I can at home (still staying out of gym other than to swim)
I have a 3 year old. I didnāt truly start structured training until paternity leave (currently 4.2 W/kg). Again, as others have mentioned, this is largely genetics, and workload. As you get older, recovery and nutrition become even more important. With a family, it certainly becomes harder but we all juggle lots of things. Hard part when juggling is to remember which balls are glass and which are plastic. Meaning, know which ones you can drop. Easier said than done. But for me, to get my bike work in, sometimes that means I donāt get to work email that day.
4/kg is not trivial and requires a lot of work. That impacts all aspects of our lives. Just do the best you can and life happiness will follow. Just my 2 cents
Did they define āpower athleteā or tell you which genes had what effect?
I would tend to see genetics as non-actionable information. Your genes may limit you but no amateur is at their genetic limit. So it might be encouraging, but you still have to put in the week, months, years of training, eating, sleeping that you have to do anyway.
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I agree.
This is pulled from the information they gave meā¦
ā This report is based on a genetic marker in the ACTN3 gene. This marker controls whether muscle cells produce a protein (called alpha-actinin-3) thatās found in fast-twitch muscle fibers. While some people donāt produce this protein at all, almost all of the elite power athletes who have been studied have a genetic variant that allows them to produce the protein. This suggests that the protein may be beneficial at least at the highest levels of power-based athletic competition.ā
Sounds like you might benefit more quickly than most from powerlifting - check out the Strength thread and Stronglifts
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Iām expecting to get there after the build phase. Iām at second base phase right now because we had some horrible weather recently and I train on the balcony, so I didnāt want to do any high intensity in the cold and wind.
Now that Iām riding outdoors as well I think itās in the bag.
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Hi I loved this data, where can I create graphs like this ?