2024 predictions

Ok, so in the spirit of an upcoming new year, I thought a predictions thread might be fun.

I’m suggesting:

  1. Biggest pro-racing surprise of 2024
  2. Biggest pro-racing disappointment of 2024
  3. Biggest equipment trend
  4. Personal FTP change :slight_smile:

I’ll go first:

  1. Roglic wins the TdF
  2. I hate to say it, but I think we’re due a proper doping scandal.
  3. Probably already happening, but the line between gravel bikes and XC mtb becomes essentially a drop handlebar vs flat bar
  4. I’m giving myself plus 20w…
  1. I wonder if we won’t see more teams start to fail financially and see more big money for Sportswashing pour into the sport. Seems to be happening everywhere.
  2. I think you’re right. We’re due a doping scandal.
  3. Glucose monitors.
  4. I’m trying to push myself more toward overall health (on and off the bike) and less toward focusing on raising my FTP. I’ve made good health progress in 23, and intend to stay the course in 24.
  1. Sepp Kuss continues his dominance and overtakes Jonas as their GC guy.
  2. I agree that unfortunately, someone big will be caught doping, whether medically or mechanically.
  3. Continuous glucose and continuous lactate monitoring
  4. It depends if I get into Leadville. Hopefully gain 20 or so watts if I get in. Probably gain 20 pounds if I don’t.
  1. Pogacar wins the giro and tour
    2, 3, 4 no idea
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If no one can watch, does it mean no one wins?

Sorry, cranky over the GCN+ closure debacle

  1. Remco does not successfully complete a grand tour.
  2. I really think something is going on at Jumbo. Not sure if its doping, but someone has to ask how they are so dominant.
  3. Continuous lactate monitors come on market. They will be generally terrible but sell like crazy.
  4. +25. Trying to get over 300 and 4w/kg

Primoz for the tour - would love to see it, but I’d be surprised, especially with the team change. Jonas looks pretty unbeatable of 3 weeks now.
Remco wins loads but not any of his big goal races.
Pog wins every one day race he starts but again struggles (relatively) in the Grand tours.
Personally, try and get a good position on my new TT bike and get my power close to my road bike power.

  1. Some unknown kids start winning everything
  2. Those unknown kids get caught doping
  3. Its not about the bike (or mechanical doping)
  4. 1w FTP change and I’ll probably click ignore!
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Best I can give you is a new bike will come out that’s 7% stiffer, 9% more aero, and more compliant than last years version! No one will verify this but we’ll all talk about it!

My conspiracy theory regarding #2 is the uci knows everyone’s on the sauce but they also know another doping scandal will be the end of cycling as we know it.

And id like to see sub 200# this year. I keep flirting with it but havnt broken it yet!

  1. Pogacar doesn’t win the Giro?

  2. TdF gets cancelled / shortend due to extreme weather

  3. Core body temperature sensors are everywhere

  4. Maybe 2024 is the year where I’ll actually get an FTP increase?

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  1. Sagan wins mtb GOLD in Paris
  2. Semaglutide abuse…
  3. Something dumb for a minuscule aero/efficiency gain. Or maybe more road bike dropper posts! (Does that count as something dumb for a minuscule Aero gain?)
  4. I’ve got some health stuff coming up in ‘24. I’ll be happy if I break even :slight_smile:
  1. there’s not a snowball’s chance in hell for that as long as N1NO, MVDP, Pidcock and other top 10 of XCO racers are on the line.


…doesn’t arrive.

But we dream! :grin:


Yeah, but none of those would be surprises.