Just point of reference for anyone else - I was 22 minutes off this pace coming back into Twin Lakes last year, but picked up 20 minutes from there to the finish passing 50+ people in the second half. 9:02 for me - should have pushed just a little harder in the first half
I will be going out harder this year from an IF perspective on certain segments.
Yeah, that pacing chart is intentionally front loaded a bit. There is a lot of opportunity to make up time on the way back, but it’s a bit of a crap shoot with headwind heading back to pipeline/powerline and the heat can also be a challenge later in the day for some. The wind and heat haven’t been bad the last few years, so it’s definitely been a favorable 2nd half (but I personally wouldn’t bank on that).
All the wattages listed are actual wattages at leadville altitude. It’s all based on strava stalking (power/weight/time) and then refined based on lots of time on the course. Altitude adjustment varies by person, but 18% drop is what I use and I’ve heard others report similar drop coming from sea level. So, when I’m targeting 190 NP for the entire day at leadville, that’s roughly equivalent to doing ~230 NP at sea level on my long training rides prior to leadville. While I don’t do 9 hour training rides, I will progress up to 7+ hours and that’s in the Texas heat.
Many consider powerline inbound to be the crux of the race because it’s a tough climb 80 miles into the race. My readiness check heading into leadville is asking myself whether I could climb powerline when I get to the ~6.5 hour mark during my training rides (that’s about the time you hit powerline at a 9 hour pace). “Maybe” is an adequate answer 6.5 hours into a hard ride during the heat of summer.
190 watts = ~2.5w/kg for me @~167lbs. But keep in mind that raw watts matter on this course on the flatter sections. So, it may take a bit over 2.5 if you are lighter and a bit under if you are heavier. And there are a bunch of other variables like wind and drafting that come into play. With favorable conditions in 2021 and 2023, I finished in 8:49 and 8:41 with NP of 190 and 189. So, 10-20 minutes to spare for big buckle, but you can’t count on those course conditions every year.
Been very helpful to see your power numbers. I think I’ll do some Strava creeping of those that had power on the day but it’s not as helpful without knowing their weight.
I’ll save people some stalking, Here are mine. 9:02:28 for me and finished with some left in the tank so will be going out harder this year from a percentage perspective - but I really train TTE and the ability to “Hold Up” as opposed to pushing raw FTP.
Water under the bridge, but I was using drop bags and that may have made the difference for me from the big buckle.
175#, 21.5# bike (Not counting water, tools, fuel). I live at zero feet - right at sea level. Sea Level FTP was right around 315, so right about 4w/Kg.
I thought I’d be upset, and of course I wanted it, but I was happy with the effort and the day. And I was a rookie who’d never raced at altitude and came off the couch with the bright idea of doing this race and started training with TR in 2022. The day went overall very well.
With that said, I’m already up 10W before the VO2 Block I’m just finishing on Friday, and have a ways to go until August, and now I have pacing experience on course…
While I want green or faster, it’s a new course at Lutsen so it’ll be more about having a plan and trying not to leave anything on the table, then the time is what it is. That’s another one I’ll l go out harder than last year. Missed green by under 3 minutes there last year - sensing a trend
I think for most people this applies to Leadville too, people always say they have a certain goal or target, might be, or might not be reasonable. And if you go out harder than you should, you could have a real bad day …
Now, if you have experience on the course or are more experienced that might change.
Rookie Leadville rider last year and went 8:55 with 3.6 watt/kg FTP at 5330 feet. I am 52 and weighed 150 lbs on race day. I did train a lot through the summer at greater than 8000 feet though and rode a lot of 5-6 hour Z2 days.
Do people find that best bike split works well for pacing strategy for Leadville and/or gravel races? I haven’t found a pacing plan to build off of that is very close to my goal time, so I have been trying to find something for a good starting point. Does anyone know what Jonathan did to help make race split plan? I remember hearing he helped with Keegan’s split plan.
My only experience with BBS has been poor. Elevations were WAY WAY off when I tried to use it last year.
I personally think it’s better to have a power-based plan than a time based plan. What’s to say you’re capable of racing to a specific goal time unless you have experience on the course? “Wanting” to go sub-9 for example may or may not be rooted in reality. Use power (Or RPE & HR if that’s your thing) then supplement with time checks to see where you are and if you think you can adjust up or down slightly.
If you’re experienced on the course I think that changes, but then you don’t need something like BBS.
Strava has most of the data you need if you have their premier membership to look at the full KOM leaderboards. The first year I raced at leadville (Stage race in 2019), I got on strava and looked at a bunch of power vs time vs weight to figure out my realistic split times and power targets on each key segment. You will have to filter through and throw out some garbage data (people who have mechanicals, etc.) and the weight ranges are wide on Strava (so it’s ideal if you know some of the riders and their precise weight). I probably pulled data from 30+ racers and ended up with about 10 after filtering out data weirdness. Despite having never ridden the course before, I was literally within 1 minute of my pacing targets for much of the race. The approach works very well on climbs and particularly the sections of climbs where people don’t typically walk. Flat sections are tougher with drafting involved and you can also have big wind variations (particularly inbound). You can also use strava data to get a feel for times on descents, but you really need to know the riders you are looking at to get a good comparison. Again, I knew enough folks who had done the race before and I had a good idea how we compared in descending skills to get an accurate time estimate.
Here is my Strava from last year. My FTP was 283 at 7800ft and I weigh 178. I did tons of sweet spot work and also lots of pacing at 2.5 w/kg elevation adjusted. (e.g. if I rode in Denver I was riding at 2.7). In 2022 I was 41 minutes slower and was not nearly as dialed with my training being in line with what works for Leadville. I had similar volumes but just spent more time at sweet spot and that 2.5 target ( I also was better with nutrition and aero positioning ) (additionally I’m sure training 2 years in a row had a huge impact in and of itself)
I was super happy with my pacing and was even battling leg cramps after the goat trail.