I think we saw/know the same person.
Curious if consumers will eventually get bored/tired of waiting, go back to old habits/outdoor things as they get vaccinated and things open up, along with price increase - that could deter others.
As for prices - yeah those aren’t going down sadly. I saw a yeti t2 with gx for 7500 at a local shop the other day. I almost threw up.
Well this is the age-old question the bike industry battles…it is a fight for disposable income, not one bike brand vs. another. We always said that in the Spring, if there was good weather on a weekend, we’d have a great week as people had their refund checks burning a hole in their pocket. if the weather sucked, they’d just go get a home theater system.
So how patient will some of these customers be now? And what will the industry look like when some of this demand pops and there is a flood pf product? (For reference, go look at the market for Forehead thermometers right now…demand popped just as a tidal wave of product hit the shores. From being impossible to find they are now everywhere and dirt cheap).
This is why the industry has been somewhat slow to expand capacity and react to the spike in demand…most don’t believe the surge is long-term or sustainable.
Guess this is a good time to be content with my bike. Good carbon, Ultegra di2, good 50mm wheels, one piece bar stem. I was already kind of meh about buying a new bike because while lighter stiffer aeroer is all good, I don’t really think there is anything revolutionary going on that would make me shell out an extra 5k to get what I’d want. Integrated cables and being 30 seconds an hour faster seems like a pretty bad deal for the price, could be the worst deal in the history of deals for an amateur rider
This is a key point that I think a lot of people miss looking at this just from the consumer side. Increasing production past a certain point requires increasing production capacity. Manufacturing physical products with tight specs is a difficult thing to rapidly scale up or down and carries real costs going either direction that could potentially sink a brand that makes the wrong call.
It seems pretty crazy compared to how most of us are used to shopping for bikes or consumer goods - more like the real estate market 
Personally I think it will be a bit of both - a few more people will cycle, mostly for commuting and leisure. Some people will stop cycling and their bikes will come into the second hand market, but probably only in a year or two, once they realise they really won’t use the bike again.
The other thing is that for a lot of the “new cyclists”, the bike is a one-off purchase, and they’re not likely to buy another one within the next 5-10 years.
Finding used is a crapshoot as well. Have found a few 20/19/20 sparks and epics but so hard to drop 3400-4K for a bike with a new model coming out - granted the thought of getting the new frame this year is not happening. (scott that is)
Trail bikes are ridiculous to find as well. I put up my 2018 alloy enduro bike and I had people messaging me 300$ over asking .
I agree and the bikes that are mostly selling or sold the most (suspect as I don’t have numbers) are the mid range bikes.
Bikes around here are rare. One bike shop would normally have a couple thousand in stock…yesterday they had 10. A larger bike shop advises ordering now for 2022 and maybe even 2023. They indicate Trek seems to be supplying most orders in a 6-12 month time frame. They indicate they have over 4,000 presently waiting delivery. The challenge is you look at a bike…and they even tell you it may be next years model that you get.
What surpises me is the Trek Domane seems to have gotten heavier over a short period of time. The 2021 Domane SL6 now comes in at 20.5 pounds. The SL7 is 19.5 pounds. In 2017 these same bikes were 17.1 to 17.4 pounds. Anyone have any thoughts on why the jump in weight. I havent yet looked at other models just bugged by the weight increase. I also know just because I pick a model…I may get next years version. Is weight going to be higher? Is there an aero tradeoff going on?
Are they all disc break or were the 2017 rim brake bikes? Are you comparing the same spec (di2 is heavier than mechanical, 105 is heavier than ultegra)? Difference in wheels (deeper are typically heavier) or tires?
I checked…the 2017 SL6 and SL7 were rim breaks…2021 is disc breaks. The wheels are definitely larger as well as they now are able to take 38c. So more weight for disc brakes and larger wheels. I knew disc were heavier just surprised at the increase in weight overall
2021 has aero frame shapes. Also believe it adds a front ISO speed where the older models were rear only. Disc brakes standard, bigger wheels and tires, it all adds up
There’s a microchip shortage worldwide which is affecting all manufacturing in all industries. Taiwan has recently experienced a drought too which has made things tough for them, not to mention escalating tensions with China. Most bicycles are manufactured in Taiwan. This is most likely contributing to increased costs to the big bike brands
just got off the phone with a customer and remembered this thread… 99 week lead time 
quoted to replace power management ICs that the board vendor screwed up by blowing OTP fuses by mistake. First run prototype that has been 1+ year in the making because of COVID business interruptus (company forced to scale back to 1 guy for most of last year). Yikes.
On topic - glad I bought my bike in March and beat any future price increases. Found a SRAM flattop 12-speed chain and bought two earlier this week. Still hadn’t shipped as of this morning and got worried, called CompetitiveCyclist and its now being shipped. Its a dog eat dog world out there.
To your benefit those SRAM chains seem long lasting enough that one could probably survive through multiple pandemics
Same we are getting 60+ week lead times for IMUs and other components, scrambling to find a drop in alternate.
I am also so glad I got my bike February last year just before covid. Cervelo R2 105 for $1600 - talk about a deal now!!!
The US dollar also keeps falling in value relative to the Chinese Yen so the price increases on bikes certainly aren’t over yet.
I know for a fact that most bike and component manufacturers are treating this as a bubble. They will not be increasing capacity anywhere close to current demand.
Yup…my lead times are well ver a year at this point. Have provided forecasts to our factory through 2022, which is nothing more than a total guess.
Correct…and, IMO, this is the correct action. A lot of the demand right now is artificial as customers and consumers are placing orders across multiple brands / companies. I would guess the bubble bursts by the end of the year.
2017 didn’t have both adjustable front and rear isospeed. Those add a lot of weight. If you pick up one that had just the standard rear non adjustable with rim brakes it’s pretty light. Add in disc, adjustable rear iso, front iso, and then crappier wheels to keep price down you have your heavier bike
And don’t forget the aero shaping along with all you mention, which makes the 3rd gen Domane a bit on the hefty side for sure. Personally, I think the 2nd generation was the best of the 3.