I know from past posts with @JulianM he uses modified Pfitz Plans like I do.
Solid times man. On rested legs you will more than likely be able to hold that pace (maybe faster with the right weather) on the run.
FWIW, my best Olympic distance pace was 6:55 and I am not remotely close to your fitness level (the race was almost perfect conditions, and on flat road)
Good question.
I have tended to use the Macmillan run calculator for approximate paces… but in the middle of a hard block of IM training these can slip a little with the accumulated fatigue. So iirc at the time my threshold was around 3:45/km but I’ve tended to base my run training paces off triathlon paces rather than pure running paces.
Given that, in the middle of a decent IM training block I’ll view around 4:00/km as threshold and work from there. As you say about running Daniels M and E paces my decent IM marathon times have generally been the pace of a steady long run.
My typical triathlon run times off the bike as the distances go up would be 37m for an Olympic, 1:25 for a half - Maryland was my best IM run at 3:12 but I’ve also run 3:17 in SA and twice in the low 3:20’s in Kona and generally had the hardest/longest run week 3 weeks out and it seems to work well for me.
Like I said though using any tool really depends on you knowing your strengths and weakness and how to train them (Steve Magness has a lot of interesting things to say about slow and fast twitch athletes in the Science of Running). For me I get better as the distances go up so my if I were to base my VDOT on (reletively) recent run PB’s I’d be 56 based on the 5k, 58 on 10 k and 60 on the HM. I haven’t run a standalone marathon in a long time.
Do you mean the 10x minute on minute off in the second last week? That’s just trying to keep the legs turning over fast for short intervals without introducing much fatigue.
As somebody said above me, sharpening the knife rather than gaining fitness.
“Don’t go swimming”
FTFY.
I say that routinely.
Pretty much, just like don’t go shopping but let’s open up the shops and have 1000s queuing up outside them.
Thanks for chiming in Julian, I was just going to link you in on this! 
Hows lockdown treating you?
Im looking at the same approach at the moment and as Ive decided to try the sustained power build plan youve used previously…and Im not seeing a lot of space for hard anything except bike 
Thats a great half result 
Id echo what the others say, iirc at the elite end a +20min run leg over open marathon would be a perfect execution on swim, bike and run, +30mins a solid performance…lots of people cock it up though (like me) as Ironman can be a bit of a minefield.
At the end of the day, or rather at the end of T2, you put your shoes on and see what you’ve got.
Curious question; how long did it take you to get to those numbers? I am not at your level but am hoping to be around 320+ by next year and I am doing a very heavy high volume run (basically marathon volume) bloc right now as all the races are tits up. I have been trying to work on my running volume so I can hopefully translate my half marathon times to the full marathon times and increasing my durability. I know I should be a sub 3 marathon on paper, but my lack of running volume in the past has killed me.
The sub 9 is extremely ambitious as your first IM but damn, your numbers seem like it’s technically doable. I personally am close to your HIM times but with lower bike wattage than you and I think I am capable of around a 2:55-2:50 open marathon right now. I don’t think I could do anything better than a 9:30 myself.
I think you have to be an absolute monster on the run to break 9 hours, like close to 3 hr off the bike marathon, so I would think thats like at least a 2:40 open marathon time with flawless bike execution. I personally think the Sub 9 will be hard for the first or second IM attempt just due to race experience, but I think it is theoretically doable with your numbers assuming you can rip a really good run after the bike.
October 2019 - 300
Jan 1 2020 - 290
Low volume time at threshold progression during marathon prep
March 11 - 311
vo2 and high end SS
May 5 - 317
Time at threshold progression
June 11 - 332
Early March started the weekly 90+ mile days ~60%
And looking at my times. My Watermans half 2019 finish which I was mistaken i finished in 4:21 I had a bad day and only pushed 230w for a 90min average. Eagleman was 2:12 with a 90min avg of 245w 252NP.
Please answer me this as I am interested. What is your NP over the 1/2 and full IM distance?
I typically don’t get too into ftp numbers and try to judge my fitness on longer rides and what power I can hold over those distances.
Couldn’t tell you what full distance is as i haven’t done it!.
Should have clarified. These two specific races are super flat so average and np is no more than 10w off
So 252 NP (or close) got you in on the bike leg at 2:12? Making sure I am reading that correctly.
I am more asking for what to expect when I get to do another 70.3 as my fitness and NP for 3 hours is the best it has been and of course there are other factors like bike, cda, course, age, etc.
Yep! Seems low doesn’t it? I have a suspicion I got really lucky and am really aero on my speedmax. I run a disc as well.
FWIW I did around a 2:15 on a hilly 70.3 off around 210-215 NP, so W/CdA is more important and even with hills you can get by with a low ish NP
I think it’s back to the drawing board for me … as far as my running goes.
I just cant seem to run at the moment, I’m even struggling with 5k 
considering I’ve been doing IM for 15 years and have ran off road Ultras in the past
So my plan is to go back to the beginning and start with a beginners 10k running plan.
My wife wants to start running again after recovering from an ankle operation a few years back (we have done London mara together in the past) so i will train her
My swimming is ok
My cycling is ok (for me - i’ve always been crap on a bike)
My running is hopeless
You were putting in big numbers in training a few minths ago iirc, could it be fatigue catching up with you?
Take a break, then do some deep water running?
Agree a stand-alone marathon is different than an IM. I used to tell people the same while noting one gets a much better warm-up before the run at an IM. On your friend’s times, I suspect he would go faster on the run with some adjusted training to make him more “durable” on the run. But hey, he’s Kona-qualified multiple times so he knows better than me.
Eighteen years ago, when I was 34, I swam 52min, had two (!!) flats on the bike on a hilly course (IM California at Camp Pendleton and no aero anything on a midrange Litespeed), and ran 3:31 for a total time of 10:30 (so the bike was… carry the one… was about 1hr slower than his). Maybe I was capable of a sub-3, I never tried as marathons then were simply for fun or training runs, but I don’t believe I was. Maybe I should’ve gone for it. (My PR was 3:15 three years later, without trying and only running trails with the dog for the 4-5 months prior to the marathon.)
In fairness that’s easily doable on a flat course depending on your size and position. If you have a good position and make good equipment choices you can go fast on not many watts. Assuming my PM is right, according to my Strava file I had a ride time off 4:38 of 196NP and 194 average watts in Maryland. I was stopped for 8 minutes with the puncture which may skew the figure slightly though, and I am relatively small and light.
It’s probably been crap for everyone but for me it’s been nuts. We had visas approved to move to Perth before COVID and then the Australian borders shut so that was off. I work as a psychiatric nurse so this period for me has been hectic to say the least with as much overtime as I can fit in!
My wife’s new employers decided a couple of weeks ago to apply for an exemption to travel which was approved about a week ago so we’ve got three weeks to pack up our lives in the UK sort out the house for renting, sell cars and all the other stuff - our flights are currently booked in around 10 days time.
As you can imagine training has taken somewhat of a backseat! On the plus side I may be racing Busselton in December yet although what shape I’ll be in then who knows 
Ill just say, bon chance and bon voyage 