I think nutrition is a far more important factor than this thread is acknowledging. Even if a nice sustainable <0.65 IF gets him sub-5, if he hasn’t figured out what nutrition works for him on a long ride, he’ll still blow up.
I’d suggest that developing a nutrition plan, and then testing it out a few times on a 3k+ calorie ride, would be a pretty important part of the prep.
Listen to the podcast for inspiration, it seems like every time they do a longish race they discuss the nutrition plan in detail.
Yeah, you’re totally right there, too. Learning how to eat in a moving pack is really important. Most folks who do the sub-5 in El Tour usually don’t stop at all… they probably have someone on course who provides bottle handups. The aid stations are great but it takes time to stop at them.
GABA is likely part of the plan. Right now, I’m doing BR just to practice group rides, especially tired. But we’ll eventually transition to the shootout, and then GABA. I’m working on riding relaxed while maintaining position in the group and staying in the draft.
Thank you for the data. Very interesting simulation. The route changed a bit last year. I think it’s exactly 100 miles now. This confirms what I’ve been thinking… possible, not probable. Everything needs to go right with training, plus have favorable conditions on the day of the race.
You are welcome. I got the route from the ride’s website that I thought was for the 2019 ride. If you are interested and provide me with a link to the 2019 route where I can export the .gps file, I’d be happy to run an updated simulation, including any updated assumptions if you want. Regardless, I hope your training and ride goes great!
Definitely possible. In 2017 I did el tour in 5 hrs 6 min (106 mi version, now it’s 102 mi). I was 25 lbs overweight, rode a $1k 22 lb endurance bike and had never done an interval or a group ride to speak of. How did I do it? I quickly realized the efficiency of sucking wheels!
Can anyone do the bar napkin math for sub 4? I’d like to go back this year at 300W at 60kg. Not sure if I’ll get there but getting closer…
I ran a BBS on your numbers, assuming:
weight of 135lbs (60kg + 2lbs for shoes, kit, pocket stuff)
FTP = 300W
IF = 0.70
Projected time = 4hrs 40mins
I then made a couple of changes to the assumptions:
FTP = 320
IF = 0.75*
[* I have done a lot of Tim Cusick’s Fatigue Resistance training that led to an 102mi/11kft century I did 2 weeks ago @ IF = 0.76, so definitely possible]
Projected time = 4hrs25mins
So perhaps with a combo of drafting and great descending, 4 hours is not out of the reach. And best would be if you could find a 4 person team of your skill level to do it with.
I did a 5-hour solo century on a drop bar fixie (total time) and It required an average of 225 watts on a fairly flat course (2,614 ft of climb). Weight & w/kg really didn’t matter, but, I’d be willing to bet you’d have to be able to do something similar.
Another recommendation is start training with one bottle of beta fuel and one sos gel per hour.
If there’s significant $ on the line, I’d be sure to get some pack riding skills outside and if you prefer the trainer, do Gasherbrum a few times so you’ll be able to build up fatigue resistance during the times you’re riding solo.
No. Lots of variables can be adjusted, including rider profile (e.g. weight, FTP, etc) and course variables (wind, direction, altitude, terrain temperature, humidity). However, it doesn’t have drafting as a factor; and to me it seems that there are too many variables to do so, such as:
are you a protected rider during the entire ride?
are you doing a 2, 3 or 4 person rotation?
is this rotation for the entire ride, including climbs, or just on the flats?
However, if you were so inclined, BBS breaks the course into 173 intervals (and allows you to combine adjacent ones to reduce it to 43). You could analyze each interval and do a time-based weighted average power with assumptions regarding number of members of the rotating team and drafting efficiency.
FWIW: It is extremely likely that pro teams do this for TTTs in order to determine the optimum length of the pull of rider in the front given the tradeoffs of wind exposure, recovery rates, varying power levels, etc.
You are about right for this course as well . . . A 10kg body weight difference had a 6 min impact over the 102mi/3575ft course (80kg = 5:16 vs 70kg = 5:10)
Riding the course with perfection suggests that it would take a AP of 185W and an NP of 188W (IF =78). However, the Variability Index to do so is 1.02 . . . an extremely unlikely scenario (why BBS is better for TTs). A more realistic VI is probably 1.20 for this course (I had a VI of 1.32 on my 11kft century). So with an average power required of 185w, the NP required for an 80kg rider would be 222w (i.e. your guess is probably pretty accurate).
Seems you want a straight answer so…Yes it will, I have done many 170km and 200 km rides on just trainerroad. In fact, in your situation I would think trainerroad is the best chance of hitting your target. I don’t know how seeding works, but with that profile it is important to start off with a group as fast a possible (on edge of your ability for distance) as drafting is insanely important, more so in longer rides.
On Saturday, I finished a 62 mile ride in 3:01. Then my ramp test today put me at an FTP of 231 and p:w 3.0. This is with mostly indoor TR with one long outdoor ride on the weekend and occasional easy rides outdoors in lieu of an easy TR day just to break it up. Essentially, I’ve hit my fitness goals 12 weeks out. And the build phase is just starting. Everything from here is just padding my chances.
So to answer my own question, TR has definitely given me the fitness, but I’m not risking this opportunity without some longer outdoor rides for the joints and tendons.
The BBS estimate misses the benefit of drafting you will see in a big ride.
A concrete example -
Last weekend, at around 165lbs, not super light bike but decent rims and tires (gp5000), and group of 3-4 people did 100 miles @179W 7600 ft climbing in 5:21. Weekend prior to that, solo, 100 miles @192W 7200 ft climbing was 5:27.
So with very small group, 6 mins faster with 13W less power despite a bit more climbing. On a big fondo, you’ll have WAY more free help. And on a flat route like you’re looking at, the drafting benefit should be a lot more than the mountains.
Use good tires and tight kit… A few watts here and there really add up over 5 hours! And if you have a power meter outside, learn and know your limits and stay in them to avoid cramps - minimize time near or above threshold to minutes at most. This takes discipline on climbs but can save the day.
Hey Thomas. I’ve done the Tour de Tucson a bunch of times. In 2017 I did it in 5:45 where my weighted avg power was only 141. At the time I was probably 178lbs at 6’ on a Cannondale SuperSix (so not aero).
The first 50 miles are super fast. It looks like it’s a climb the whole way on a graph, but it doesn’t feel like it. I completed the first 50 pretty fast, about 2:45, so a bit under the time you’d need to do sub 5 hours. I could have gone faster, but was pacing myself. In fact, I think my avg power was around 120 watts through the first 50 because there are so many riders, it is pretty easy to hook onto a big (20-30 riders) fast group and do very little work to keep up a fast pace.
The challenge for me has always been the last 20 miles… of any century. I don’t know if it’s endurance or nutrition but I struggle even when I’m pacing my effort and feel really good all the way to 80 miles. But if you can finish strong and you get in with a fast group you can do sub 5. In fact, because all of the other distances finish along the same last 20, you can usually jump on folks doing the 50 mile or 75 mile ride who are still fresh and pushing a strong pace.
How many folks do you have on your team? If you’re looking for one more, I might be doing the ride this year again. It’s possible I will only do 25 with my wife, but if she bails I’ll do the 100 and would be happy to join. I was actually thinking to try to break 5 hours this year myself.
This weekend I did my first ever century (solo — no drafting!) all at Z2/Endurance pace in just under 6hrs. Did roughly the same amount of climbing as TdTucson.
Doing a higher intensity pace and riding in a group (and no red lights!) will easily get you under 5.
