I have no skin in this game and I don’t have any opinion to defend. A couple of posts down from the one I linked Dr Andrew Coggan states
‘The calculations that I laid out indicate that the average person could NOT make it (much) over 4 W/kg even after years of dedicated training.’
It looks to me like there are a lot of assumptions and averages used in his calculations but with his track history in this field and having literally wrote the book on Training and Racing with a power meter I’m not in any position to put forward an argument to suggest he is wrong.
As regards anyone person’s individual capacity the only way to know is to try. Problem being that most people really can’t (or don’t want to) afford the time, money, effort and lifestyle that would be needed to achieve their own ultimate performance. And that’s absolutely fine. If any one can and wants to make that commitment then good luck to them. Not everyone will make 4W/Kg, even less 5 and virtually no one 6.
Everyone needs to find their own balance and that ultimately if they enjoy riding and racing their bikes and making the most of whatever genetic gifts they have and effort they have invested then who gives a stuff what FTP or W/Kg
My point is rather, where are these data points taken from?
Those were college athletes, that had years and years of structured (cycling) training behind them, with optimized nutrition, optimized rest, and a progressive polarized training plan, and they on average managed 3.9W/kg of FTP?
That‘d be very surprising. But that’s what I’d call genetic limitations.
If they were just given, say 6 months to train, based on whatever they think will work, it’s very unlikely they found the human potential of these athletes.
So far Coggan’s answer is the less biased and more objective. So if a person wants to know their potential for w/kg they should:
Measure their VO2max
Measure their body composition.
With this two they know what they have to work with. Then the tricky part is estimating the % of FTP relative to VO2max. Seems like 80% is an average (with a lot of variability I venture to say), but the question is how to assess where in the distribution you are for this metric…this is a more interesting question.
This is another estimation, and you have to look at that distribution. He is saying 30%…For this I would use long term and persistent increase in vo2max and not the short term that most ppl experience.
Edit: I have read into Coggan‘s work way to little to properly comment and critique it.
All I am say is, that once you operate on an assumption that is not correct, all your results, regardless of how well everything else is thought out, can be biased or in other words, wrong.
I find determining the human potential extremely difficult, as I said earlier. I couldn’t have done it for myself.
When is started out cycling, I had years of competitive (albeit unsuccessful) weight lifting behind me and was 24 yo. After two months of daily training (without much of plan of what I was doing, but I was trying hard), I had reached an FTP of 2.7 Wkg at 86kg of weight. During a medical exam, later that same months, I did an exercise EKG with VO2 Max measurements (taking blood from the earlobe and breathing into a tube). The result was a VO2 Max of 51.
19 months later (of which 13 were structured training with a coach), I had lost 16kg in bodyweight and increased my FTP by about 130W.
I just find it hard to believe, that this could have been predicted early on, but I might be mistaking.
I’d also be curious what percentage of riders 62kgs (or thereabouts) can hit 4 w/kg. My assumption is that weight is a bigger factor than power and most men have difficulty getting lean enough to maximize the power numerator. The OP doesn’t really have that problem. I think he’s virtually guaranteed to hit it if he keeps trying and stays lean.
I wasn’t gifted with athletic parents, in fact the greatest sporting accomplishment was by my dad when he ran a 48:00 10k.
I started structured training in Oct 2019, at the age of 42 and at 77 kg. I had an ftp of 180. I rode 2500 miles in 2020, 4500 miles in 2021, and 2200 miles so far this year. AI FTP just estimated me at 275, and I am now 72 kg, or around 3.8 w/kg. I expect to hit 4.0 before my A race in August.
I eat moderately well, except for a sweet tooth that keeps me slightly heavier than I should be. (I am 17% body fat). I don’t lift weights, cross train, or do anything other than TR workouts to get faster. I do however get at least 8 hours of sleep almost every night.
My secret has been consistency. I do a hybrid TR plan, that includes 3 days of intensity, 1 long ride, and a short easy ride that gets cancelled if I need the extra recovery. I was finding that the format of 5 weeks on followed by a recovery week was a little too taxing for me. By the end of the fourth week of SSB, I was dragging ass. I switched my base period recently to 3 on 1 off, and it made a huge difference. I am nailing almost every workout and went from 250 —-> 275 much quicker than I went from 225 —-> 250.
I notice that I felt like everything was meshing for me perfectly once I slightly lifted my volume to about 125-150 miles per week.
While of course this is n=1, I feel that if someone as average as myself can get there, most people can get there.
I’ve been lean and have exercised aerobically all my life so weight has never been an issue.
My “winter weight” is 70kg but currently 67kg, (and able to get to 66kg), at 188cm (6ft 2in) and above 4w/kg.
Managing weight is one disadvantage of indoor training, over the winter it’s easy to put on 3-4kg while seeing FTP climb, however at 4w/kg you’d have to increase FTP by 12-16w just to “stand still”. (yes this is a big generalisation depending on your riding)
Riding outside I feel (and am) noticably faster at 66kg than 70kg, it’s very enouraging to stay light for the summer.
I think he’s agreeing with me, but it’s kind of hard to tell. I read it as, his weight fluctuations demonstrate how critical weight is to the equation.
I would say to him, getting to 4 w/kg is one thing. Being there when you are out of shape is another. You don’t have to be 4 w/kg all year long to be a 4 w/kg rider, especially if you typically gain weight in the winter.
Well, the “work” aspect may well differ between both, but if people are blindly doing stuff based on “1 hour riding = I get to eat this much of whatever…” then they potentially have problems regardless of where that riding takes place.
Weight control is a balance of inputs and outputs along with a range of other factors. But if we distill it down to the training aspect, it’s important that people constantly evaluate their state and progress via things like regular weight measurement at the least.
I don’t think it’s fair to effectively call inside “worse” in the weight aspect. If someone does less work in any fashion, reducing intake is essential. Besides that, there is so much fluctuation in outside riding demands (solo, group, hard, easy, wind, hills, etc.) that it’s an overly broad brush to point to inside riding as a contributor without actually looking at the specific of ANY training used.
No idea. I have not seen what you wrote in relation to that.
I was asking him specifically about how he thought inside was worse than outside for weight control (per the very specific part I quoted and nothing more).
Kind of yes, the focus and reward indoors is on FTP and raising it (as it should be) however it’s also easy to ignore weight “control” as it has no impact indoors, riding outside it does.
I may be misunderstanding you, do you care to elaborate?
Are you saying this because of cooling/airflow/environmental factors indoors vs outdoors? Or just because its easier to ride for a long time outside vs inside?
For me, I can do more work indoors for a given amount of time, just because I feel safer going to my limit indoors where there isn’t traffic or other things to worry about (indoors I can push until I would fall over if I was riding outdoors). However, I imagine, many people can find more motivation outdoors and find it easier to do more work outdoors.
I agree . From Sept - Jan I train indoors, don’t weigh myself and eat what I want. I usually end up 72kg.
In Jan I start better eating habits and can usually drop 5kg by April and keep this all summer. This weight drop improves my w/kg by 7-8%, something that I can definately feel. (I should add I ride MTB, I realise that this is not applicable to all riding catagories)
The two are interrelated. I bet its a tiny minority that can do a 3000-5000 kj ride indoor. You might be able to be more efficient indoor per unit of time, but the ceiling is low relative to outdoors in the cumulative, unless you are part of that tiny minority.
That would be a solid workout inside or outside. For me at 66kg and 250-270w FTP depending on the date, that would be a notably hard 4-6 hour workout and not a Sunday cruise. I have a handful of indoor and outdoor centuries at a pace that gets me above that 3k lower bar.
Point being that I’d be curious how often an average rider even does workouts in that range. I’d wager it’s not more than a weekly case for most (4 times or less per month specifically), and should not be a typical consideration for weight control.
I get your general point, and do think a typical rider may well get more total KJ outside, but I don’t think its something like 2:1 or more that would shift the scales in a massive way.
Consistency : Find a training program that suits you. I can’t do Mid Volume. I can’t even do Low Volume. It’s not the amount of riding in it. It’s the amount of intense rides in it that I can’t keep doing. I get burned out. Instead, I do 2 hard rides per week. This way I am able to ride up to 12 hours a week no problem! I don’t burn out. I enjoy it more. This is not a recipe for you. All I’m saying is, find a way to be consistent for 4-5 months or however long it’s gonna take you to get to 4w/kg.
Fix your diet : This is more important than fitness. Trust me. I’ve already beaten all my records yet I haven’t beaten my 1 hour w/kg record. Although I beat my power record of all time for 1 hour, I am 15lbs heavier than my previous record. Lose the weight if you want a w/kg improvement. Don’t starve yourself. But don’t over eat. When you’re losing weight, it is ok to feel hungry. What you’re feeling is your body trying to keep you at exactly same weight. If your goal is to lose weight, you should ignore that hunger. As long as you feed yourself enough, feel hungry, it’s fine. A week later you won’t even feel as hungry anymore.
There’s no secret formula. Train smart, eat smart. That’s it. Most people can reach 4w/kg.
. From Sept - Jan I train indoors, don’t weigh myself and eat what I want. I usually end up 72kg.