It seems to me that the structure of World Cup XC has already addressed most of what Rapha’s mentioning and is growing as a result. I’m not sure that Red Bull releases the exact numbers, but a quick Google shows that viewership rose by 50% last year with XC getting most of the benefit (the first year short track races were used for starting position), and record audiences tuned in for the World Champs. Mountain bike teams and athletes also produce content that’s far superior to the road crowd (see Kate Courtney and the downhill team race recap videos for the best examples). I don’t know that it will ever overtake road but it’s already much easier and more entertaining to follow.
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I wonder if MTB is just growing more popular than road cycling in general, thus creating more MTB fans. MTB after all is something that even a kid can do without any trouble while road cycling is way out of reach for many demographics. Combine that with trail construction maturing in many places around the world and the recent advances in MTB technology, then no wonder off-road cycling is just more accessible and it is easier to enjoy yourself at even a beginner level.
The recent success around gravel racing and cyclocross could also be attributed to the same factors.
I think MTB is just getting back to it’s previous levels. In the early 90s it was wildly more popular than road cycling (for a lot of the reasons you list) and then fell off.
MTB is also a completely different sport than it was 20 to 30 years ago as well, but that’s a whole different conversation. It’s not even really mountain biking anymore, but some gravel like hybrid called ‘XC’
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I’ve been thinking about this a lot over the last few weeks. With the coronavirus wrecking havoc to the racing calendar and teams more vulnerable than ever made me think that it could possibly be the catalyst to turn things upside down.
I’ve never raced and a relative newcomer to watching cycling in depth but its clear to me that at World Tour level the system is broken and confusing. Not to say (most of) the racing isnt interesting but commercially its a joke.
Seems to me if Rapha could team up with a few key partners (Eurosport/discovery, Specialized, Shimano) they could get the ball rolling on starting some positive changes
I realize this comment is almost a year old but I’ve never heard anyone refer to today’s mountain biking as less technical than 20 years ago. If anything the XC bikes of back then are extremely close to today’s gravel bikes and today’s XC bikes are like 20 year old downhill bikes.
Not being disrespectful in the least, but have you been on a late 90’s MTB? They are essentially oversized BMX bikes. About as far from a modern gravel bike as possible.
The stuff from the late 80s to early 90s, then sure, very much so. I’m actually turning an old early 90s Marin into a gravel bike myself.